re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update Feb 25 2025

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Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin implicitly acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president of Ukraine and Russia's future negotiating partner while promoting a new information operation that aims to destabilize Ukrainian society and the Ukrainian military from within.

Putin attempted to use new language to repackage the calls for regime change in Ukraine that he has demanded since 2021.

Putin offered to make a deal with the United States on Russian rare earth minerals as part of efforts to outbid Ukraine on this matter and to push the United States to accept Russian offers of economic measures in lieu of any actual Russian concessions on Ukraine.

Putin attempted to claim that he supports Europe's participation in negotiations on Ukraine while continuing to show his unwillingness to make concessions and seemingly proposing Russian allies as possible future negotiating parties.

Kremlin officials continue to exploit diplomatic engagements with Russia's allies to reinforce Moscow's narrative that Russia invaded Ukraine to protect Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine.

A delegation from North Korea's Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) arrived in Moscow on February 25 at the invitation of Russia's ruling party, United Russia, amid reports that North Korea may be shipping more material to Russia.

Western officials continue to highlight the scale of European military aid to Ukraine.

Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk.

Samara Oblast authorities reduced one-time payments to soldiers who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) after temporarily increasing these payments in January 2025.

The BBC Russian Service reported on February 25 that over 100 Russian government, military, and security officials accused and convicted of various corruption charges are fighting in Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues efforts to use its "Time of Heroes" program, which places veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions, to form a new Russian elite composed of loyal and ultranationalist veterans that will continue to militarize Russian society over the long term.

Russia may be reopening a Soviet-era submarine base in occupied Crimea.

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We don't think or talk about race, so it stands out when other groups bring it up

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Actual Russians admit that their culture is different from the west and not actually Slavic but also with a lot of Mongol and Tatar influence.

Has Russia won this 3 day special military operation yet?

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According to both Senior U.S. and Ukrainian Officials, a framework for the “Mineral Deal” has been agreed upon by both countries, which will see Ukraine provide 50% of its revenue for the extraction of minerals, gas and oil, to a fund co-chaired by both the United States and Ukraine, to be used for the rebuilding and economic development of Ukraine. In exchange for continued U.S. military aid and support until an end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, as well as currently unspecified “Security Guarantees” for the future of Ukraine. U.S. President Trump stated earlier today in the Oval Office, that he believes Ukrainian President Zelensky will travel to Washington and the White House on Friday, in order to sign the Deal.

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A public formal agreement

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So was nafta. We tore it up during Trump’s first term on whim and replaced it with USMCA, and appear set to tear that agreement up now during Trump’s second term.

Formal agreements with the US are up for renegotiation every 4-8 years at this point.

And when Ukraine ignores this treaty, are we sending troops to die in Ukraine to enforce our tribute?

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There are some posters in this thread that needs to heed this advice.

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I love that statement!

The Financial Times has seen yesterday's full agreement and here is their responding article in full:

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Ukraine agrees minerals deal with US Kyiv hopes agreement on jointly exploring resources will improve relations with Trump administration

Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration and pave the way for a long-term US security commitment.

Ukrainian officials said Kyiv was ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from the deal.

Although the text lacks explicit security guarantees, the officials argued they had negotiated far more favourable terms and depicted the deal as a way of broadening the relationship with the US to shore up Ukraine’s prospects after three years of war.

“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday.

A Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was planning to travel to Washington on Friday to see Donald Trump and formalise the deal.

On Tuesday, the US president appeared to confirm his Ukrainian counterpart’s visit, saying: “I hear that [Zelenskyy is] coming on Friday. Certainly it’s OK with me if he’d like to.”

The original draft agreement’s highly onerous terms — which Trump presented as a means of Ukraine repaying the US for military and financial aid since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion — provoked outrage in Kyiv and other European capitals.

After Zelenskyy rejected that initial text last week, Trump called him a “dictator” and appeared to blame Ukraine for starting the war.

The final version of the agreement, dated February 24 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine.

Ukraine has large underground deposits of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as scandium, that are essential for an array of industries from defence to electric vehicles.

The agreement excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers.

However, it omits any reference to US security guarantees, which Kyiv had originally insisted on in return for agreeing to the deal.

It also leaves crucial questions such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the terms of “joint ownership” deals to be thrashed out in follow-up agreements.

After three years in which the US was Kyiv’s primary military aid donor, Trump has overturned Washington’s policy by opening bilateral talks with Russia, without any European allies or Ukraine at the table.

Ukrainian officials said the deal had been approved by the justice, economy and foreign ministers.

The Trump administration’s initial sweeping proposal called for a reconstruction investment fund in which the US “maintains 100 per cent financial interest”.

Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of the fund’s revenue from mineral resources extraction, including oil and gas and associated infrastructure, up to a maximum of $500bn.

Those terms, described as unacceptable by Ukrainian officials, have been removed from the final draft.

The mandate for the fund to invest in Ukraine is a further change Kyiv had sought. The document states the US will back Ukraine’s economic development into the future.

Ukrainian officials added the deal was just a “framework agreement” and that no revenue would change hands until the fund was in place, allowing them time to iron out any potential disagreements. Among the outstanding issues is to agree the jurisdiction of the agreement.

Zelenskyy’s government will also have to seek approval from Ukraine’s parliament, where opposition MPs have signalled they will at the very least have a heated debate before ratifying such a deal.

Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, said on Tuesday it was “critical that this deal is signed”, though she did not provide an update on the talks.

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Random tweets

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BREAKING Lavrov: “There will be no cessation of hostilities in Ukraine along the line of contact, we have a constitution”

In his speech, Lavrov relied on the Constitution, which includes the entire “DNR”, “LNR”, (Donetsk National Republic and Luhansk National Republic) Zaporizhzhya and Kherson regions. Note that a significant part of the territory and the capitals of the latter two are not controlled by the Russian Armed Forces.

At the moment it is not clear by what way it is planned to establish control over them, since in the foreseeable future it is impossible to do it militarily.

Thus, the Russian Foreign Ministry does not plan to agree with the freeze on the front for the time being.

So, you can unilaterally write four regions of a neighboring country into your constitution and then refer to it?

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Lavrov says that Russia never agreed to peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and ruled out a ceasefire along the current combat line.

This directly contradicts Trump’s ceasefire and peacekeeping proposal.

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Lavrov says the next round of U.S.-Russia talks will take place in Istanbul tomorrow, focusing on embassy operations - TASS

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?? The head of the French Finance Ministry, has said that France, Germany and the UK are ready to send troops to Ukraine to enforce the cease-fire regime

Other European countries are also ready to send their troops, Lombard said  in an interview with Bloomberg. Peacekeepers are expected to be sent to Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement is reached.

"We agreed with President Trump, we want a ceasefire. If we want a ceasefire to be enforced by European countries, we need the support of the US. President Trump has said he will agree to that. Of course, it's still a long way off because the ceasefire has to be discussed by President Zelensky and President Putin first. But Europe, America will help, the minister said".

The Wall Street Journal, citing a White House official, writes that the peace plan Trump is drafting will not include guarantees of future aid to Ukraine for fighting or any commitment to send US troops to the region.

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After Ukraine agrees to the mineral "deal," Trump says in return Ukraine receives "the right to fight on." He boasts that he was the one who first gave Javelins to Ukraine, which wiped out a lot of Russian tanks. He says US weapons could continue to flow to Ukraine "for awhile"

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Russia commented on Zelenskyy's plans to visit Washington on March 28 to meet with Trump

Whether it will be the mentioned agreement (on rare earth minerals ed.) or something else — we'll see! So far there are no official statements on this matter.

Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, also said that the Kremlin has not yet clarified the details of the personal meeting between Putin and Trump.

Peskov: There is an understanding that it should take place and there is an understanding that it should be well prepared. This is the understanding of the two presidents. Now there is a step-by-step implementation of those agreements that both heads of state and heads of high-level delegations reached in Riyadh.

And also said that the phone call between Putin and Trump can take place if necessary at any time.

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WATCH IT

A bipartisan group in the ???? U.S. House of Representatives has thrown its weight behind ???? Ukraine, declaring that Putin must be stopped and Russia must face a crushing strategic defeat.

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?? BREAKING “People don't want to go to war, they are tired. Let them live”. The mayor of the Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk asked Zelenskyy to make peace with Russia

In his speech in Russian, Trebushkin said that civilians still remain in Pokrovsk — despite regular shelling (the city in Donbass is on the line of fire and not everyone wants to evacuate), lack of heat and water supply. According to him, most Ukrainians actually want peace: “People want to go home, they want you to give peace. Volodymyr Olexandrovych (Zelenskyy), we believe in you".  — This video is shared by the Russian media a lot.

Zelenskyy's office has not yet responded to him. And the military administration in Pokrovsk asked “not to be cowardly and not to cherish despondency.”

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The Federation Council approved the law on ratification of the treaty between Russia and Belarus on security guarantees within the Union State.

The document was submitted for ratification by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under the agreement, the parties undertake to support each other by all means and means agreed and allowed by international law, to take appropriate actions in the political, military and other spheres in cases of encroachment on the security of either party and the Union State as a whole.

“The Treaty was signed in Minsk on December 6, 2024. The agreement envisages, among other things, the involvement of all forces, including Russian nuclear weapons, for the defense of the Union State”. — Chairperson of the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation Valentina Matviyenko

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Ukrainian journalist Tatiana Kulyk killed in her home by Russian drone attack in Kyiv Oblast

by Kateryna Hodunova February 26, 2025 2:51 PM

Journalist Tatiana Kulyk and her husband, surgeon Pavlo Ivanchov, were killed in their home by a Russian drone attack on Bucha district of Kyiv Oblast on Feb. 26, according to Ukrinform and Bogomolets National Medical University.

Russia attacked the Bucha district causing a fire in their home. While extinguishing the fire and clearing the rubble, rescuers found two dead bodies.

Kulyk was a journalist at the Ukrinform news agency, host of "the Nation of the Invincibles" program, and acted as editor-in-chief of the agency's Multimedia Department. Kulyk was a member of the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine.

Ivanchov was an oncologist and head of the Surgery Department at Bogomolets National Medical University. He was also the co-author of over two hundred scientific papers published in national and foreign journals, according to university's statement.

"Tatiana Kulyk was a great journalist. She made many programs about our struggles and our heroes. Just yesterday, we were talking about preparing an interview with Kyrylo Budanov. She will forever stay in our hearts and in our memory,"said Serhii Cherevatyi, Ukrinform CEO.

The Kyiv Independent