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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/15/24 at 7:39 am to cypher
Posted on 12/15/24 at 7:39 am to cypher
These are small product tankers. They would NOT be carrying crude oil. Likely fuel for the military diesel, jet fuel, and/or mazut. From the size of the catwalk seen, they are as small as a river barge in the USA.
2
Posted on 12/15/24 at 8:06 am to CitizenK
Posted on 12/15/24 at 8:53 am to cypher
Posted on 12/15/24 at 9:26 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
15 December 2024
Russia has made further gains to the south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Donetsk oblast. Russian forces are currently approximately 3km from the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk, having reportedly taken the village of Shevchenko. Shevchenko itself lies at an intersection of two routes leading into Pokrovsk. Russia will likely continue to make gains towards Pokrovsk whilst continuing to advance westwards to the south of the town.
Russian forces have highly likely intersected Velyka Novsilka's north-eastern logistics route, the T-05-18. In early December, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained control of the village of Novyi Komar, and continue to maintain one remaining supply route to Velyka Novsilka from the north.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
15 December 2024
Russia has made further gains to the south of Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in Donetsk oblast. Russian forces are currently approximately 3km from the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk, having reportedly taken the village of Shevchenko. Shevchenko itself lies at an intersection of two routes leading into Pokrovsk. Russia will likely continue to make gains towards Pokrovsk whilst continuing to advance westwards to the south of the town.
Russian forces have highly likely intersected Velyka Novsilka's north-eastern logistics route, the T-05-18. In early December, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained control of the village of Novyi Komar, and continue to maintain one remaining supply route to Velyka Novsilka from the north.
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:13 am to CitizenK
quote:Yes, the cargo on Barge No.1 is a distillate as we see no heavy oil slick. Plus, there are no steam lines on deck for residual fuel.
These are small product tankers. They would NOT be carrying crude oil. Likely fuel for the military diesel, jet fuel, and/or mazut. From the size of the catwalk seen, they are as small as a river barge in the USA.
Crossing the Kerch Straight in small vessels like this is not a good idea in heavy weather, but current circumstances there don't give them options. Plus, the cargo may not have been secured evenly in the tanks at last port, resulting in a hogback or sagged keel. That would cause a great deal of stress in any sea condition. With a storm like we see here, sequential waves of a certain distance apart could increase this stress to hull failure. As it evidently did....
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:16 am to cypher
quote:Post of the Month.
Syrian Christians attend first Sunday service since fall of former regime leader Bashar al-Assad
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:31 am to cypher
The attack came from Georgia
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:46 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Two Russian tankers sank in high waves near the Kerch straits.
Steel gets very brittle in cold weather and cold water.
As I recall, we lost some liberty ships in the winter in the North Sea during WWII where they cracked and sank.
quote:
Historians have documented 19 Liberty ships as having split in 2 without warning.
https://www.marinersmuseum.org/2021/01/brittle-fracture-when-ships-split-in-two/
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:47 am to Lima Whiskey
The fall of Assad is a HUGE blow to Russia and Iran. Syria had also run a drug manufacturing cartel, which was well known and affected neighboring nations. Additionally, it is quite obvious that Russia/Syria gave cover to ISIS training camps and why not hit until after Russian air power had dissolved.
Due Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's FUBAR proxy war with Israel, they are both weakened, especially Iran.
The economy of Syria becoming Monopoly Money, had a huge impact internally. Does this foretell a coming fall of Russia in a similar fashion?
FTR, we do know where most of Iraq's chemical weapons went before it fell, Syria.
Credibility of Putin's butt boys takes a huge hit, except to the bribed/clueless.
LINK
Due Russia's involvement in Ukraine and Iran's FUBAR proxy war with Israel, they are both weakened, especially Iran.
The economy of Syria becoming Monopoly Money, had a huge impact internally. Does this foretell a coming fall of Russia in a similar fashion?
FTR, we do know where most of Iraq's chemical weapons went before it fell, Syria.
Credibility of Putin's butt boys takes a huge hit, except to the bribed/clueless.
LINK
Posted on 12/15/24 at 10:57 am to Lima Whiskey
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
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Russians with attitude
LINK
quote:
Turkish defense minister says Russia is pulling military equipment from different places in Syria back to its two main bases but isn’t fully withdrawing entirely and will “do everything they can to stay.”
LINK
quote:
russians are trying to recruit bank debtors in the temporarily occupied territories, – writes the National Resistance Center.
The occupiers promise them to "write off" all loans if they join the russian army.
"However, the number of people willing to sign a contract with the russian army in the temporarily occupied territoties is critically low", – the Center notes.
LINK
quote:
A Ukrainian Armed Forces reconnaissance group commander with the call sign Madyar published footage from the Kursk region showing dead Russians and, reportedly, North Korean soldiers lying in stacks.
LINK
quote:
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian forces are being badly beaten in Kurakhovo. Up to several hundred AFU soldiers are currently blocked on the territory of the thermal power plant, and there are encircled pockets of resistance within the city.
LINK
quote:
The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not rule out the possibility that Russia may send DPRK soldiers to eastern Ukraine.
"It is possible that soon, due to heavy losses in the eastern areas, representatives of North Korea may also be used on our frontline, who will participate in combat operations together with russian soldiers", – said Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for the Khortytsia military unit.
LINK
quote:
Regarding any and all claims about events that occur in the war: nothing other than identifiable, reliably geolocated video footage is "proof" of anything. And even then you have to be careful in evaluating the claims attached to the footage.
But since I have been asked a million times about our Korean friends now, I will share what I have been told by several sources I consider reliable.
- A number of DPRK troops have been training in Russia
- A small number of them, around 50, participated in the final assault on Plekhovo in Kursk oblast that dislodged the AFU from the village, alongside Russian Marines from the 810th Brigade. This was the first time they participated in combat
- Their performance was good
- They are disciplined and reasonably skilled. They have to be taught drone warfare but they got all the normal combat skills down. Good at CQB
I don't know anything more than that - not how many of them there are overall, not whether this was a one-time thing or a first (successful) experiment, nothing. Is it possible that this is the result of Chinese whispers among soldiers, rumor mills, trolling or deliberate disinformation for whatever purpose? I guess so, because, I repeat, nothing short of concrete visual evidence can be considered "proof" of anything. But personally I don't have a reason to distrust my sources.
I don't think that this decision has to be justified or defended; it's cool, it's perfectly "legal" (whatever that means), it's beneficial for both sides. I personally hope that this cooperation expands and is also applied in the SMO zone proper.
Russians with attitude
quote:
YLE quoting WSJ:
"Chinese ship suspected of cutting Baltic Sea cables received instructions from Russian intelligence"
"authorities do not want to publicly blame Russia to avoid panic among citizens"
Per WSJ, anonymous intelligence sources claim that the Chinese captain of Yi Peng 3, the ship that cut the underwater cable in the Baltic Sea, received instructions directly from Russian intelligence..
LINK
Posted on 12/15/24 at 11:08 am to CitizenK
quote:
The fall of Assad is a HUGE blow to Russia and Iran. Syria had also run a drug manufacturing cartel, which was well known and affected neighboring nations. Additionally, it is quite obvious that Russia/Syria gave cover to ISIS training camps and why not hit until after Russian air power had dissolved
Good luck with that
Posted on 12/15/24 at 12:12 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
Now you fellas have deviated to Syria. I thought this thread was about Ukraine.
It’s been pretty tough to launder money through NGOs in Ukraine since Putin denazified Ukraine and exposed our corrupt biolabs.
I thought the game was up, but an all out race for influence in the rebuilding of Syria will make our Ukrainian grift look like the minor leagues. And killing off the last of the Syrian Christians . . . dayenu.
Posted on 12/15/24 at 2:39 pm to ned nederlander
This is the whole ballgame, folks.
Yes, The US and the EU combined to "loan" Ukraine $50 billion backed by Frozen Russian assets. But why not just take the frozen assets and give them to Ukraine to help rebuild the country?
I don't think the EU is going to go for this, but it's good that Biden is making the attempt.
LINK
Yes, The US and the EU combined to "loan" Ukraine $50 billion backed by Frozen Russian assets. But why not just take the frozen assets and give them to Ukraine to help rebuild the country?
I don't think the EU is going to go for this, but it's good that Biden is making the attempt.
LINK
Posted on 12/15/24 at 4:44 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Good luck with that
Good luck with what? Russia literally fled Syria. One third world ally down. Don’t worry you still have Iran and North Korea
This post was edited on 12/15/24 at 4:49 pm
Posted on 12/15/24 at 6:33 pm to REG861
Lukashenko banned the export of potatoes. This is due the rapid rise in price of potatoes in Russia and fears that Russians will buy up all the potatoes in Belorussia where potatoes are also a staple of everyday food. Belorussia normally exports potatoes to Russia.
Posted on 12/15/24 at 7:14 pm to Lima Whiskey
Posted on 12/15/24 at 7:15 pm to John Barron
"Ukraine’s failure to fix organizational issues and replace inefficient commanders has eroded trust in the system to the point, where severe recruitment shortages and desertion levels are so high that no amount of aid can fix it"
Posted on 12/15/24 at 7:47 pm to John Barron
ISW update dec 15
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Siversk direction following a recent reported command change of the Russian forces operating near Siversk.
The recent Siversk assault indicates that Russian forces appear to be learning to conduct more effective assaults but remain far from restoring maneuver to the battlefield.
North Korean forces are reportedly facing expected struggles with high casualties and poor communication with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast, likely disrupting coordination between North Korean and Russian personnel and undermining Russian military operations.
Russia's immediate plans for its military assets in Syria remain unclear as reports continue that Russia has secured agreements to keep its main military bases in western Syria while also withdrawing from its other bases in the country.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
Russian sources continue to complain about the Russian military's insufficient training system and inept military instructors.
Posted on 12/15/24 at 9:57 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Steel gets very brittle in cold weather and cold water.
As I recall, we lost some liberty ships in the winter in the North Sea during WWII where they cracked and sank.
It was the welding used and was hydrogen embrittlement.
A T-2 tanker split in half in the Northern Pacific, the crew was able to stay afloat in the stern half with engine room, sailing backwards. Towed to just outside Seattle when the tow line was dropped so that newsreels could make it look like the "courageous" crew did it all by themselves as it came into port.
Posted on 12/16/24 at 2:07 am to CitizenK
The depot was reported to be about 6 km inland.
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