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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/14/24 at 10:39 pm to Lee B
Posted on 11/14/24 at 10:39 pm to Lee B
I consider this as dependable as a tabloid article, but...
INTERESTING ENGINEERING: China unleashes new microwave weapon that can fry enemy drone 2 miles away
INTERESTING ENGINEERING: China unleashes new microwave weapon that can fry enemy drone 2 miles away
Posted on 11/14/24 at 10:47 pm to Lee B
I thought I'd seen the picture used in that article before...
UK GOV NEWS:Advanced future military laser achieves UK first
and remembered this:
US NAVAL INSTITUTE NEWS: Navy to Test Microwave Anti-Drone Weapon at Sea in 2026
I assume we'll see these field tested in Ukraine at some point?
UK GOV NEWS:Advanced future military laser achieves UK first
and remembered this:
US NAVAL INSTITUTE NEWS: Navy to Test Microwave Anti-Drone Weapon at Sea in 2026
I assume we'll see these field tested in Ukraine at some point?
Posted on 11/15/24 at 12:34 am to Lee B
WAPO (Gifted Article): ‘We have won’: Russians envision new global system with Trump victory
Russians see Donald Trump’s win as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces in the world against a liberal, Western-dominated global order.
Russians see Donald Trump’s win as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces in the world against a liberal, Western-dominated global order.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 7:29 am to Lee B
British DefenceIntelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
15 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 6 November 2024 Ukraine almost certainly targeted the Caspian port of Kaspiysk in Russia with an Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The port highly likely hosted multiple Russian Navy vessels at the time, with at least two likely Gepard-Class frigates sustaining damage. The extent of this damage is currently unknown however any damage to the vessels will highly likely be quickly repaired.
The Russian Caspian Flotilla was likely used to launch mass attacks against Ukraine in 2022 and has continued to be used to launch infrequent attacks through 2023-2024. Ukraine likely attacked the Caspian Flotilla in retaliation for these strikes on its territory. It is, however, unlikely that the Russian vessels damaged in this strike had been used to launch direct strikes on Ukrainian territory.
Whilst the current operational tempo in the Black Sea remains low, the attack demonstrates that Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian targets in areas previously viewed as safe for operations. Prior to the strike, the Ukrainian UAV highly likely traversed a large area of Russian territory without being intercepted. This will highly likely cause concern to Russian political and military leaders.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
15 November 2024
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 6 November 2024 Ukraine almost certainly targeted the Caspian port of Kaspiysk in Russia with an Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV). The port highly likely hosted multiple Russian Navy vessels at the time, with at least two likely Gepard-Class frigates sustaining damage. The extent of this damage is currently unknown however any damage to the vessels will highly likely be quickly repaired.
The Russian Caspian Flotilla was likely used to launch mass attacks against Ukraine in 2022 and has continued to be used to launch infrequent attacks through 2023-2024. Ukraine likely attacked the Caspian Flotilla in retaliation for these strikes on its territory. It is, however, unlikely that the Russian vessels damaged in this strike had been used to launch direct strikes on Ukrainian territory.
Whilst the current operational tempo in the Black Sea remains low, the attack demonstrates that Ukraine retains the ability to strike Russian targets in areas previously viewed as safe for operations. Prior to the strike, the Ukrainian UAV highly likely traversed a large area of Russian territory without being intercepted. This will highly likely cause concern to Russian political and military leaders.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 7:41 am to cypher
Russian state TV talks about Tulsi Gabbard and other nominees
Posted on 11/15/24 at 8:51 am to Lee B
quote:
Russians see Donald Trump’s win as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces in the world against a liberal, Western-dominated global order.
Given the expansionist trajectory of Putin's Russia I am sure he would love an Isolationist West..
The time will come will Putin will no longer be in power... I have no idea who that might be and how that might change the complexion of Russia's current trajectory...
Posted on 11/15/24 at 9:10 am to Lee B
quote:
Russians see Donald Trump’s win as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces in the world against a liberal, Western-dominated global order.
Who believes that Russia is an isolationist nation? I do not.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 10:05 am to klrstix
quote:
The time will come will Putin will no longer be in power... I have no idea who that might be and how that might change the complexion of Russia's current trajectory...
Someone like him will come to power.
They may be more or less competent, but ideologically, the big thing would be are they more interested in Europe or Asia. Putin is a Saint Petersburg liberal and has always looked to the West.
The war had strengthened Russians sense of pride and their ethnic identity. So I expect they’ll place a heavier focus on being Russian, and they will be less accommodating of minorities for the foreseeable future.
This post was edited on 11/15/24 at 10:08 am
Posted on 11/15/24 at 11:26 am to Lee B
quote:
Russians see Donald Trump’s win as a victory for conservative, isolationist forces in the world against a liberal, Western-dominated global order.
Meanwhile, Putin just rejected Trump's proposal out of hand. Guess he doesn't like carrots.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 11:27 am to Lima Whiskey
At least 3 Russian oil refineries on verge of closure, Reuters reports
by Kateryna Hodunova November 15, 2024 6:37 PM
At least three Russian oil refineries have been forced to halt or scale back production due to significant losses and now face the risk of closure, Reuters reported on Nov. 15, citing five undisclosed sources.
"We expect that the actual (plant) closures may take place at the beginning of next year," one of the five sources said.
The Russian fossil fuel industry is a key economic driver of Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine. In response, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil production with long-range drone strikes.
The Russian oil refining sector, hit by Ukrainian drones and Western sanctions, is now selling fuel at a discount and charging high interest rates. As a result, three plants — Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk — have either suspended or reduced production in recent months, according to Reuters.
State-owned Rosneft, Russia's oil giant, has been forced to suspend refining at its Tuapse plant on the Black Sea multiple times this year due to low profitability, sources said.
The Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk refineries in southern Russia have been operating at half capacity for several months, processing about 70,000 and 60,000 barrels per day, respectively, due to unprofitable conditions, four sources confirmed.
All three refineries were struck by Ukrainian drones earlier this year, resulting in reduced refining volumes, according to sources.
The Kyiv Independent
by Kateryna Hodunova November 15, 2024 6:37 PM
At least three Russian oil refineries have been forced to halt or scale back production due to significant losses and now face the risk of closure, Reuters reported on Nov. 15, citing five undisclosed sources.
"We expect that the actual (plant) closures may take place at the beginning of next year," one of the five sources said.
The Russian fossil fuel industry is a key economic driver of Moscow's full-scale war against Ukraine. In response, Ukraine has targeted Russian oil production with long-range drone strikes.
The Russian oil refining sector, hit by Ukrainian drones and Western sanctions, is now selling fuel at a discount and charging high interest rates. As a result, three plants — Tuapse, Ilyich, and Novoshakhtinsk — have either suspended or reduced production in recent months, according to Reuters.
State-owned Rosneft, Russia's oil giant, has been forced to suspend refining at its Tuapse plant on the Black Sea multiple times this year due to low profitability, sources said.
The Ilyich and Novoshakhtinsk refineries in southern Russia have been operating at half capacity for several months, processing about 70,000 and 60,000 barrels per day, respectively, due to unprofitable conditions, four sources confirmed.
All three refineries were struck by Ukrainian drones earlier this year, resulting in reduced refining volumes, according to sources.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 11/15/24 at 11:31 am to Auburn1968
quote:
Meanwhile, Putin just rejected Trump's proposal out of hand. Guess he doesn't like carrots.
It was a terrible offer
Russia gets nothing it doesn’t already have, and Ukraine gets a pause, and the opportunity to rearm and refight the war at a later date.
At a minimum, Ukraine would have to offer withdrawals. They would have to give up Kherson, and the other territory that Russia annexed but which they still control. And it’s likely Russia would press for more territorial concessions than that.
And the longer the war lasts the worse the deals get.
This post was edited on 11/15/24 at 11:34 am
Posted on 11/15/24 at 11:31 am to CitizenK
quote:
quote:
What comes next?
Trump has repeatedly stated that he'd give Ukraine more weapons than they could use
I don't think Trump will continue Biden's tip-toeing through the tulips on this one.
This post was edited on 11/15/24 at 12:48 pm
Posted on 11/15/24 at 12:34 pm to Auburn1968
Russian Chef Alexei Zimin, whose cooking show was axed after he criticized Russia's war in Ukraine, was found dead in his hotel room while on a visit to Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, AFP reported. Zimin made the trip to promote his newest book, Anglomania, according to the Guardian.
It was unclear what his cause of death was, but Serbian officials told the BBC there were "no suspicious circumstances," and that an autopsy and toxicology report would be completed.
It was unclear what his cause of death was, but Serbian officials told the BBC there were "no suspicious circumstances," and that an autopsy and toxicology report would be completed.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 1:33 pm to nicholastiger
Russia, like the Sopranos but with more alcoholics and murders
Posted on 11/15/24 at 5:06 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
Russian Chef Alexei Zimin, whose cooking show was axed after he criticized Russia's war in Ukraine, was found dead in his hotel room while on a visit to Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, AFP reported. Zimin made the trip to promote his newest book, Anglomania, according to the Guardian.
It was unclear what his cause of death was, but Serbian officials told the BBC there were "no suspicious circumstances," and that an autopsy and toxicology report would be completed.
He fell out of a window inside his hotel room.
Posted on 11/15/24 at 7:34 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Ukraine gets a pause, and the opportunity to rearm and refight the war at a later date.
So only Ukraine can do this? Are you saying Russia can't?
Posted on 11/15/24 at 7:35 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update Nov 15th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin is intensifying its reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making in Russia's favor ahead of or in lieu of possible future negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
Abkhazian oppositionists protested an agreement between the de facto government of Georgia’s Abkhazia region with Russia aimed at enhancing Russian investors’ rights in Abkhazia on November 15.
Ukraine's Western partners continue to provide Ukraine with military support via various means and platforms.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
The Kremlin continues efforts to expand its "Time of Heroes" program to create a new social class comprised of veterans loyal to Russian President Vladimir Putin's regime and ideology.
Posted on 11/16/24 at 8:38 am to StormyMcMan
A good Twitter post from Tatarigami:
Any peace deal that Ukraine can actually accept would require more more and US-provided deterrent capability than Trump is going to want to spend. It's going to be much cheaper to simply take a bunch of our old armored vehicles out of long-term storage, provide them to Ukraine, and take the handcuffs off the usage of the weapons we've provided.
It's why I continue to fail to understand exactly how the "peace deal" posters in here (who also complain loudly about any dollars spent on Ukraine) actually expect things to work.
In most cases, I don't think that they really want peace -- they just want Trump to cut Ukraine off so that Russia can win. But I feel sure that won't happen, because Trump's whole message was about peace through strength, campaigning against the weakness that Biden showed in Afghanistan, so I can't imagine Trump simply letting Russia win, which would make the whole world conclude that the US is weak.
quote:
Seems like it’s time for me to explain again, why Ukraine cannot simply freeze the war and call it peace:
- Without a defense clause and troops on the ground from other countries, Ukraine will need a massive standing army to guard a frontline spanning over a thousand kilometers.
- No deterrence against a new invasion will drive more people to leave as borders reopen, fearing a repeat attack.
- Post-war elections in a democratic Ukraine will spark a political crisis if Zelensky is forced into a bad peace deal.
- A nation in political turmoil, under constant Russian threat, won’t attract investments or recover its economy with high-interest loans.
- It will embolden those who argue that yielding to Russian demands is the only way to avoid Ukraine’s fate, referring to a cheap oil and gas as justification.
- An impoverished, crisis-ridden Ukraine will be no match for a partially recovering Russia, which can leverage eased sanctions and resource exports.
- Aid at current levels won’t continue indefinitely, while Russia has more potential to recover than an aid-deprived Ukraine.
In short, any deal that doesn’t deter Russia from a second invasion is a death sentence for Ukraine
Any peace deal that Ukraine can actually accept would require more more and US-provided deterrent capability than Trump is going to want to spend. It's going to be much cheaper to simply take a bunch of our old armored vehicles out of long-term storage, provide them to Ukraine, and take the handcuffs off the usage of the weapons we've provided.
It's why I continue to fail to understand exactly how the "peace deal" posters in here (who also complain loudly about any dollars spent on Ukraine) actually expect things to work.
In most cases, I don't think that they really want peace -- they just want Trump to cut Ukraine off so that Russia can win. But I feel sure that won't happen, because Trump's whole message was about peace through strength, campaigning against the weakness that Biden showed in Afghanistan, so I can't imagine Trump simply letting Russia win, which would make the whole world conclude that the US is weak.
Posted on 11/16/24 at 8:43 am to GOP_Tiger
In the meantime, escalation management continues to perform as usual:
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