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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 3/5/22 at 8:57 pm to
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139059 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 8:57 pm to
quote:

But you just claimed that people have been SCREAMING for direct combat engagement against russian forces by nato nations. Can you show me these people? You made the claim.

Probably, but I've got a buzz and I'm feeling lazy
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41436 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 8:58 pm to
God damnit I was just about to add that you (like so many in this thread) were going to eventually back down and blame it on drinking lmao


Either way, this conflict isn't ending anytime soon so you have time. Otherwise we can just agree you made up a strawman. It's ok.
This post was edited on 3/5/22 at 9:00 pm
Posted by VAvolfan
Member since Feb 2010
2368 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

I also learned Russia works on a logistics push system where the US and most capable nations use a pull system. We don't randomly send resupply based on pre-battle modeling, we send what is needed where on a continuous basis. The Russian military logistics leaders send resupply where they think they will need it based on their priorities. So you have units running out of fuel, parts and food while they have plenty of ammo because they did not anticipate using those up before they accomplished their mission. Their supply chains are simply not set up to react quickly in dynamic operations.


So they basically run their logistical system like they ran their economic system when they were the USSR. Bunch of morons.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150455 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

Have people not been advocating for involvement in this conflict
no?
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139059 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

God damnit I was just about to add that you (like so many in this thread) were going to eventually back down and blame it on drinking lmao

That's what me and my boy Putin call a pre-emptive strike
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30696 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

I mean, what the hell would be the lead time to get these things operational even if they are in Europe?


That was sort of my way to preempt someone saying but but we do have MIGs. We have them for OPFOR training IIRC* and we have over 20 MIG 29s we bought from I think Moldova to prevent them from being sold to Iran. I don't know where these are nor if they are operational. I suppose it is possible they end up in Ukraine at some point...


* I did not double-check this, I think we used some Russian assets at some point mixed with US fighters that mimicked their capabilities.
Posted by Cfrobel
Member since Nov 2019
332 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:05 pm to
quote:


I also learned Russia works on a logistics push system where the US and most capable nations use a pull system. We don't randomly send resupply based on pre-battle modeling, we send what is needed where on a continuous basis. The Russian military logistics leaders send resupply where they think they will need it based on their priorities


I think this is because the Russian armies strategic planning is still based off fighting WWII. Once their war machine got rolling in 43 what you described is the way their front system operated. Rather than reacting to the situation on the ground, fronts would continuously switch on and off from offensive to regrouping posture based on previous planning. Supply prioritization would go to the front planned to switch back on, not the one in a position to exploit an advantage.
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
88509 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:07 pm to
So at this moment, how concerned are y’all about a full blown WWIII scenario?
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30696 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

So they basically run their logistical system like they ran their economic system when they were the USSR. Bunch of morons.


In fairness push style logistical resupply CAN work if your modeling is accurate and you plan for enough contingencies. If you get the modeling right it is more effective than pull-based logistics but it will never be as efficient as pull-based and when shite happens you did not anticipate and plan for well you are fricked with a dry 18" dildo in a sandpaper condom.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41436 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:10 pm to
Not very. Ukraine has begged for more countries to get more directly involved on their side and all have balked pretty swiftly.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104183 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

So at this moment, how concerned are y’all about a full blown WWIII scenario?


1%

Unless Russia starts lobbing nukes, not going to happen, and the odds that they do that are slim to none. Even if Putin wants to, he has lost the room.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
139059 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

That was sort of my way to preempt someone saying but but we do have MIGs. We have them for OPFOR training IIRC* and we have over 20 MIG 29s we bought from I think Moldova to prevent them from being sold to Iran. I don't know where these are nor if they are operational. I suppose it is possible they end up in Ukraine at some point...


* I did not double-check this, I think we used some Russian assets at some point mixed with US fighters that mimicked their capabilities.

I think they were originally talking about getting them from Poland who I assume have some in stock, but I can't imagine they're like a rifle you can just hand off.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
41436 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

In fairness push style logistical resupply CAN work if your modeling is accurate and you plan for enough contingencies.


Sounds like it can't work. shite goes fubar all the time on things 1/100000000th of the scope and scale of military invasion. If everything has to go as expected for it to work, it will practically never work.
Posted by caill430
Da Dirty Dell
Member since Jul 2005
1412 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:16 pm to
If you didn’t get that I meant NATO and pretty much the world as following rules I don’t have anything else to say.
Posted by WestCoastAg
Member since Oct 2012
150455 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:17 pm to
And thats basically what you are seeing here. Its a poor system to use on such a grand scale. Its what happened to them in Afghanistan in the 80s
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:20 pm to
The southern front seems to be rolling along pretty well. Who’s supplying them?
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
30696 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

The southern front seems to be rolling along pretty well. Who’s supplying them?


The main difference in the southern front vs the northern front (not considering the quality of men and machines) is it is dry in the south. You won't see any pictures of trucks stuck in the southern AO. Resupply can move faster with fewer delays.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

The main difference in the southern front vs the northern front (not considering the quality of men and machines) is it is dry in the south. You won't see any pictures of trucks stuck in the southern AO. Resupply can move faster with fewer delays.
Agreed. So is it because of the push vs pull system of logistics or the poor weather and roadways?
Posted by PrecedentedTimes
Member since Dec 2020
3128 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:28 pm to
quote:

Ok, this is really really ducking bizarre, but are there any reports of foo fighters or unexplained lights, UAF, or anything like that in Ukraine? Hearing some really weird shite now.


What if they say they’re not like the others?
Posted by UndercoverBryologist
Member since Nov 2020
8077 posts
Posted on 3/5/22 at 9:29 pm to
quote:

Even if Putin wants to, he has lost the room


To Putin’s credit, he’s not as insane as his reputation that precedes him. He no more wants to provoke a direct war with NATO than we do with him. (As I’ve said, he knows shipments are being carried out across Ukraine’s Western border with NATO. But he knows better than to poke that bear.)

The only real question mark is what desperate measures would he take if the Russian military was on the brink of collapse and he truly had everything to lose by pulling out of this war after going all in? Does he get desperate to attack those shipment corridors, even so far as to cross the Romanian, Slovakian, Hungarian, or Polish borders?
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