re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 3 October 2024

On 11 September 2024, the Merchant Vessel (MV) Aya was struck by a missile in the Black Sea as it transited south from the Ukrainian port of Odesa having been loaded with more than 26 thousand tons of grain bound for Egypt. It is almost certain that the missile was an AS-4 KITCHEN anti-ship missile launched by a Tu-22M3 BACKFIRE Russian bomber that was operating in the area at the time. It is a realistic possibility that a detonation failure avoided catastrophic damage.

It is unlikely that the MV Aya was the intended target for this mission and was likely struck due to poor targeting procedures from Russian pilots using an aging munition. Russia has regularly attacked targets along Ukraine's Black Sea coastline, including Snake Island, as they attempt to disrupt export activity and degrade any military assets in the area.

Following the loss of a BACKFIRE in April this year, Russia has almost certainly been more wary with their strike operations in the Black Sea. It is a realistic possibility this incident occurred due to pilots incorrectly identifying MV Aya as their target in haste, wanting to depart the area immediately after launch for fear of being targeted by a Ukrainian surface to air missile.

The KITCHEN missile has consistently underperformed in the Ukraine conflict. Launching a supersonic cruise missile on an incorrect heading against a likely erroneous target in international waters demonstrates extremely poor and irresponsible aviation practice.

Update on the AFU UAV strike on the Russian air base in #Borisoglebsk, #Veronezh Oblast, Russia -- High probability ammo depot struck

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Absolute filth

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Your boy Biden is now calling for sanctions against Iran.

What is ironic is this gd idiot is who took them off to start with!!!!

This is clown world shite. And you frickers vote for this incompetence.

Looks.like all your buddies have abandoned you in the thread.

But don't worry I will continue to drop.in to provide enlightment.

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You're completely lost. You must've thought that you were in PT.

Just kidding. Of course you are really just a nasty troll.

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Absolute filth

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Look another paid kremlin poster.

The guy likely signed up to be an organ donor, plus his organs are going to injured Ukrainian soldiers who need them. So even IF this is true I don't see what the big deal is.

Oh no, Ukraine bros!

An interesting video on Latvia's history and current events. Putin really stepped into the honey bucket.

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Iran is wishing Hamas had never pulled that shite on October 7...

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Perhaps they should have passed those "concerns" to their terrorist arm, Hezbollah, before Hezbollah's attacks on October 8th?

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My reference was to the present (last 60-70yrs).

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Well, even then... did you know there are sizable Jewish populations in Iran and Egypt? I'm not saying they all have first-class citizen treatment (not unless they're very wealthy) but they aren't messed with...

Meanwhile, a woman from Denmark was visiting when Anders Breivik went on his shooting spree and people here were trying to figure out how it would make sense that a Christian Nationalist Norweigan would attack young Norwegians... and she said "I don't know that you can understand... Norwegians in general as so anti-Jewish that they celebrate and endorse Islamic terrorism against Jews and Israel, almost on a National level, and he was punishing them for that because he believes Israel has to exist to bring about the second coming of Jesus." When we said no, we didn't realize Norway was that anti-semitic, she said "oh, yes... Sweden is almost as bad, too." Digging into it there was a lot of stuff that proved what she said about the youth group camp that he targeted, and... the government... and the history of Norway in the early 20th Century. I don't know if she's right about Sweden, but she lives a lot closer to them than I do, so...

And France is getting pretty bad in its anti-Semitism. Jews get caught between both the far right (Neo-NAZIs) and far left (Replace Israel with Palestine) these days.

It's all basically connected...

NYT Op Ed (gifted article): What This Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas-Iran Conflict Is Really About

To understand why and how Israel’s devastating blow to Hezbollah is such a world-shaking threat to Iran, Russia, North Korea and even China, you have to put it in the context of the wider struggle that has replaced the Cold War as the framework of international relations today.

After the Hamas invasion of Israel on Oct. 7, I argued that we were no longer in the Cold War, or the post-Cold War. We were in the post-post-Cold War: a struggle between an ad hoc “coalition of inclusion” — decent countries, not all of them democracies, that see their future as best delivered by a U.S.-led alliance nudging the world to greater economic integration, openness and collaboration to meet global challenges, like climate change — versus a “coalition of resistance,” led by Russia, Iran and North Korea: brutal, authoritarian regimes that use their opposition to the U.S.-led world of inclusion to justify militarizing their societies and maintaining an iron grip on power.

China has been straddling the two camps because its economy depends on access to the coalition of inclusion while the government’s leadership shares a lot of the authoritarian instincts and interests of the coalition of resistance.

You have to see the wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon in the context of this global struggle. Ukraine was trying to join the world of inclusion in Europe — seeking freedom from Russia’s orbit and to join the European Union — and Israel and Saudi Arabia were trying to expand the world of inclusion in the Middle East by normalizing relations.

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