re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It counts members of all three forces, including: UK Regular Forces, Gurkhas, Military Provost Guard Service, Locally Engaged Personnel, Volunteer Reserve, Serving Regular Reserve, Sponsored Reserve and elements of the Full-Time Reserve Service.

By this measure, the strength of the UK Forces was 183,230 personnel as of 1 April 2024, according to the latest figures. This is a decrease of 3.0% since 1 April 2023.

Broken down by force type, there were 37,780 personnel in the Royal Navy (including the Royal Marines), 110,300 in the Army and 35,140 in the RAF (these figures, and those cited below, have been rounded, so don’t always add up to the precise total).

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The tasted life under Russian (Soviet) occupation.

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stressed that robust Western security assistance will be crucial for Ukraine's ability to contest and seize the battlefield initiative. Havrylyuk also challenged the notion that Russian forces will be able to indefinitely sustain the consistent gradual creeping advances that support Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory for winning a war of attrition in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the battlefield initiative in limited and localized counterattacks at the tactical level — emphasizing that the current state of grinding positional warfare along the frontline is not an indefinitely stable one.

Havrylyuk assessed that Russia will face medium- to long-term economic and equipment challenges that will impede the Russian military's ability to indefinitely retain the theater-wide initiative, sustain consistent offensive pressure that results in gradual creeping advances, and win a war of attrition.

Putin's articulated theory of a slow, grinding victory in Ukraine is notably premised on accepting continuously high casualty rates, as exemplified by reported Russian losses accrued during two recent offensive efforts.

NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine and announced new security assistance packages for the Ukrainian war effort at the NATO summit in Washington, DC on July 9 and 10.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia would not accept or uphold any negotiated peace settlements with Kyiv short of Ukrainian capitulation, the destruction of the entire Ukrainian state, and the full occupation of Ukraine.

Servicemembers of a Russian motorized rifle regiment that was previously implicated in the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in late May 2024 reportedly executed two Ukrainian POWs in the same area in western Zaporizhia Oblast in June 2024.

Select US military bases in Europe have instituted increased alert levels in response to intensified Russian sabotage and hybrid operations against NATO allies over the past several months.

Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 10 that the Russian military trained the first batch of Moscow Military District (MMD) counter-drone instructors at the Alabino training ground in Moscow Oblast.

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Every member is suppose to pay 2% of it's GDP towards their military. How many do it?

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TORONTO — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has told NATO officials privately that Canada will never meet the military alliance’s defense-spending target, according to a leaked secret Pentagon assessment obtained by The Washington Post. The document’s anonymous authors say Canada’s “widespread” military deficiencies are harming ties with security partners and allies.

The document, which has not been previously reported on, says “enduring” defense shortfalls led the Canadian Armed Forces to assess in February that it “could not conduct a major operation while simultaneously maintaining its NATO battle group leadership [in Latvia] and aid to Ukraine” — and that the situation was not “likely” to change without a shift in public opinion.

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Canada has been dodging its commitment to NATO for a decade. It may not be able to hold out for much longer.

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“What’s happening now that everyone is spending more, the fact that the Canadians aren’t even trying has become obvious,” said Max Bergmann, a former State Department arms control official.

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“They’re going to continue to be obstinate” because there is no real penalty for failing to meet the alliance goal, said one U.S. congressional staffer, who like others quoted in this story was granted anonymity to speak freely about a close ally. “Europeans are frustrated that they’re being criticized and Canada is not feeling the same pressure from Washington.”

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The Canadian case is particularly frustrating, the diplomats say, because of Ottawa’s seeming lack of urgency, despite significant problems with its aging military equipment and its strong economy. Its military is so underfunded that half of its equipment is considered “unavailable and unserviceable” according to a leaked internal report.

“The Canadian public doesn’t really see the need,” said Philippe Lagassé, Barton chair at Canada’s Carleton University. “If forced to choose between defense spending, social programs or reducing taxes, defense would always come last. So there’s no political gain to meeting the pledge.”

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In a brutally candid interview on Canadian television in June, Canadian Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre said that underinvestment in defense means that “the military that we have right now is not ready to counter the threats that we see coming.” Asked about the lack of a plan to hit 2 percent, he added “I do not defend that, and nobody in uniform defends that.”

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At the NATO Summit in Washington, it will be made clear that “2 percent is not the ceiling, it’s the floor,” for what countries are expected to contribute to their own defense budgets, the diplomat from the NATO country said. Countries such as the U.S., Poland, Norway and Estonia have already pushed past 3 percent, or have publicly shared plans to get there,

Since the Trump years, and especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, “there’s an expectation of sharing the burden and seriousness about defense that Canada is not meeting,” said an official from a NATO state that has pushed well beyond the 2 percent threshold.

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Despite this, Canada is also failing on a second NATO metric. As part of the 2 percent pledge, nations also agreed to spend 20 percent of that on new equipment purchases. Canada and Belgium are the only countries that continue to fail to do so.

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That's one of the biggest lessons of the war. We bet wrong on precision fires. It's no replacement for mass.

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A lot of Russia's native logistical networks are about to be open game. That's when we'll see how effective precision is vs mass.

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We bet wrong on precision fires. It's no replacement for mass.

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