re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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So he's repeating a false Kremlin talking point. Surprise!

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You never did schedule that therapist did you?

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What is the endpoint?

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When the two sides quit shooting each other.

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What defines victory?

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History

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What is the endpoint? What defines victory?

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In before someone says "as long as Ukraine still exists they win"

I have talked about it before, but the one thing that I feel certain about is that Trump will absolutely reject the current Biden plan of "as long as it takes," with the fearful, slow plan to bleed Russia dry without upsetting the apple cart.

That's why I believe that it's critical that Ukraine appear to have a better chance of winning when Trump takes office. Trump likes winning. If he can deliver the coup de grace and take credit for Ukraine's victory, I think that will be very tempting. On the other hand, if Ukraine is still losing territory and appears to be losing the war, then I think that he will want to throw in the towel -- he won't want to fund a losing war in any way.

The essence of Trump foreign policy is that he really doesn't care that much about it, and he doesn't see important long-term strategic objectives. In his first term, he insisted on getting all US troops out of northeast Syria, even though that would result in the abandonment of our Kurdish allies there, who guard the Al-Hol camp with some 30,000 ISIS members and their families. It was only when Trump was told that we could secure the oil there that he bought in to the idea that keeping our troops in NE Syria was a "win," and they could stay.

In its corner, Ukraine will have Mike Johnson and whoever the new Senate Majority Leader is, arguing for continued military support. On the other hand, of course, people like JD Vance, MTG, and others will be for cutting off every penny.

In my opinion, there's a good chance that would result in a negotiation with a much lower level of aid.

But MAGA hates both China and Iran, and both of them are increasingly invested in Russian victory, so I don't think it would take much to reframe the whole debate into cracking down on Xi and the Mullahs.

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quote:When the two sides quit shooting each other.
Nah. That would just be a ceasefire until Boris Johnson re-entered the picture to scuttle it.

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That’s what happened in Korea

And history does depend on who is writing it.

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That’s what happened in Korea

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Indeed. Boris Johnson wasn't there to say "let's push Mao" with South Korean fodder.

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I have talked about it before, but the one thing that I feel certain about is that Trump will absolutely reject the current Biden plan of "as long as it takes," with the fearful, slow plan to bleed Russia dry without upsetting the apple cart.

That's why I believe that it's critical that Ukraine appear to have a better chance of winning when Trump takes office. Trump likes winning. If he can deliver the coup de grace and take credit for Ukraine's victory, I think that will be very tempting. On the other hand, if Ukraine is still losing territory and appears to be losing the war, then I think that he will want to throw in the towel -- he won't want to fund a losing war in any way.

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Then the loss will be on his watch ... which begs a corollary question. What would define Ukraine losing?

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But their win would be shallow if they don’t get some kind of security assurances that Russia won’t rest up and come for more.

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Of course security assurance was a MAJOR component of peace talks over two years ago. Right? Peace talks which the UK/US scuttled. We refused Ukraine those very security assurances if it came to terms with Russia at that point.

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Just a total misunderstanding of what happened to DeSantis

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Not at all, this was the first sign that DeSantis was not ready for prime time. I was a supporter until his horrible launch. He launched with discussion involving Sacks and Musk, then took on Sachs as a campaign advisor. He never recovered from that first week and when pressed on Ukraine he crawfished back and forth looking extremely weak

That's great news about the Dutch + "unnamed country" Patriot donation.

Unfortunately, the Romanian system that people got excited about a couple of days ago turned out to be a promise to supply a system IF they can backfill that capability, a condition not likely to be met soon.

Still, there appears to be a collective understanding that Ukraine needs a lot more air defense assets now in order to rebuild and protect their electrical grid.