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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 6/20/24 at 8:35 pm to
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4693 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 8:35 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a major information operation during his recent visit to North Korea and Vietnam on June 18 and 19 aimed at sabotaging efforts by Ukraine's partners to clearly define a common strategic objective and strategy to decisively defeat Russia’s illegal war of conquest in Ukraine.

Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia in order to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine.

Putin’s nuclear threat is part of an ongoing Kremlin nuclear blackmail campaign aimed at dissuading Ukraine’s allies from decisively committing to defeating Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine and is therefore highly unlikely to result in actual nuclear escalation.

South Korea responded to the Russian-North Korean comprehensive strategic partnership agreement on June 20 and stated that it will reconsider its previous ban on sending lethal military assistance to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin simultaneously attempted to downplay aspects of the Russia-North Korea agreement potentially in response to South Korea's concerns during a June 20 press conference in Vietnam.

Putin also met with Vietnamese President Tô Lâm, Vietnamese Prime Minister Ph?m Minh Chính, and General Secretary of the Central Committee of Vietnam’s Community Party Nguy?n Phú Tr?ng during his visit and discussed bilateral relations and the Soviet Union's and Russia's support of Vietnam during the 20th and 21st centuries.

Russian forces used the new FAB-3000 M-54 bomb with a unified planning and correction module (UMPC) to strike Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv Oblast for the first time, representing a new Russian capability with a high potential for destruction if Russian forces continue to be able to use such weapons uninhibited.

The United States made a policy change to prioritize delivering Patriot air defense interceptors to Ukraine against the backdrop of the increasing threat of Russian guided glide bomb use in Ukraine.

US policy still prohibits Ukrainian forces from striking military targets with US-provided weapons in the operational and deep rear of Russian territory.

The Russian military's increased over-reliance on infantry-heavy frontal assault tactics has greatly degraded the distinctions between various Russian combat services on the battlefield in Ukraine, minimizing the operational efficacy of frontline troops.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov used a working visit to the Eastern Military District in Vladivostok, Primorsky Krai to create the appearance of a strict but engaged defense minister.

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against at least two oil facilities in Russia on the night of June 19 to 20.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.

Russian milbloggers complained that the Russian military command is failing to properly incentivize Russian servicemen to fight and explain the purpose of the Russian full-scale invasion to its troops.


Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16274 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 10:14 pm to
Severe storm hits Moscow two people killed.

LINK

Video calling it Hurricane Edgar from India Today LINK
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8495 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 10:30 pm to
On the All In Podcast today, Trump said he would totally rule out US boots on the ground in Ukraine and is against France sending any personnel, but they can do what they want. Also said he would rule out Ukrainian membership in NATO, and said the war largely started because of the Biden admin’s continuous push to add Ukraine to NATO, something Trump said has been a red line for Russia for over 20 years. He pointed out that he understood Ukraine should be able to do what they want, but nonetheless it was a provocation toward Russia to push for their NATO membership.
This post was edited on 6/20/24 at 10:32 pm
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3990 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 10:48 pm to
quote:

said the war largely started because of the Biden admin’s continuous push to add Ukraine to NATO,


So he's repeating a false Kremlin talking point. Surprise!
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16274 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

So he's repeating a false Kremlin talking point. Surprise!


His first public appearance after Biden was inaugurated he bragged about Operation War Speed and the jab. He had some boos in the crowd and never mentioned it since. He was a fast learner at retail politics in 2016. Was Hillary ever locked up?
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16274 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 11:29 pm to
I listened to the first 25 minutes, and like always he leaves a way out with a small short statement near the end of discussion of a topic
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3990 posts
Posted on 6/20/24 at 11:38 pm to
"You shouldn't believe what he says" is not some strong endorsement
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21086 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 6:32 am to
Politico shows that the Biden administration is allowing Ukraine more freedom to strike into Russia, even as Sullivan and others insist that the policy is the same.

quote:

The U.S. has told Ukraine it can use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border — not just those in the region near Kharkiv, according to U.S. officials.

The subtle shift in messaging — which officials insist is not a change in policy — comes just weeks after the U.S. quietly gave Kyiv the green light to strike inside Russia in response to a cross-border assault on the city of Kharkiv. At the time, U.S. officials stressed that the policy was limited to the Kharkiv region, among other restrictions.

quote:

National security adviser Jake Sullivan told PBS on Tuesday that the agreement with Ukraine about firing American weapons into Russia extends to “anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory.”
quote:


“This is not about geography. It’s about common sense. If Russia is attacking or about to attack from its territory into Ukraine, it only makes sense to allow Ukraine to hit back against the forces that are hitting it from across the border,” Sullivan said.
quote:

Still, Sullivan’s language is markedly different from what U.S. officials said in May when the new policy was detailed. At the time a senior U.S. official said: “The president recently directed his team to ensure that Ukraine is able to use U.S. weapons for counter-fire purposes in Kharkiv so Ukraine can hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them.”

The policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed,” the official stressed.

Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21086 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 6:41 am to
Tweet from Politico reporter

quote:

Russia remains on track to build 2.4 million artillery shells and 5-6,000 Iranian-designed Shahed one-way drones next year, NATO official tells
me


That's less than previous estimates of 3 million. It indicates that, by 2025, NATO will finally surpass Russia in shell production.
Posted by AU86
Member since Aug 2009
26257 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 6:49 am to
Reeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21086 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 6:57 am to
Russia shot down one of its Ka-29 naval aviation helicopters today in a friendly fire incident.

Russian milblogger Fighterbomber (a rare resource: generally honest and putting out very useful and interesting info) says that this is the result of a new Ukrainian tactic.

For a while now, Ukraine has been sending out naval drones to attack Russian ships, and Russia has been using its Ka-29s to hunt and destroy them from the air.

So, now, Ukraine is sending out long-range aerial UAVs to accompany the USVs. With Russian air defense locking in on the aerial drones in the exact same airspace as the helicopters, it's easy to understand how a missile hit the wrong target.

Just one more level of complexity in the drone wars.
This post was edited on 6/21/24 at 7:24 am
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8495 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:00 am to
quote:

Russia remains on track to build 2.4 million artillery shells and 5-6,000 Iranian-designed Shahed one-way drones next year, NATO official tells
me


That's less than previous estimates of 3 million. It indicates that, by 2025, NATO will finally surpass Russia in shell production.


Thats where the deal with NK likely comes in to fill the gap
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42849 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:10 am to
quote:

So he's repeating a false Kremlin talking point. Surprise!


2014 Russia took Crimea and ramped up their efforts in the Donbas.

Was Ukraine on the brink of joining NATO then because that’s when the war started?
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5777 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:19 am to
Kyiv Says Its Drones Struck Russian Kamikaze Drone Training Center, 3 Oil Refineries

The Ukrainian military and intelligence reported that they struck three Russian oil refineries and a training ground for the Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones with their own attack drones in the early morning hours of Friday, June 21.

The military's attack was conducted with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), a Kyiv Post intelligence source said.

The kamikaze drone training ground hit was at Russia's 167th Training Center in Yeisk, in the Krasnodar region, the source in the SBU said.

The site hit houses a warehouse of Iranian drones, whose operators live in a nearby barracks. A series of explosions followed by detonations was recorded.

Subsequently, Ukrainian military and SBU drones struck three refineries in southern Russia: Afipsky, Ilsky, and Krasnodarsky.

These are key facilities producing fuel oil for Black Sea Fleet ships. Their destruction will significantly complicate the logistics of fuel oil supply, making it more expensive and time-consuming, the intelligence source said.

The Kyiv Post
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8495 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:47 am to
quote:

I listened to the first 25 minutes, and like always he leaves a way out with a small short statement near the end of discussion of a topic



Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3990 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 7:49 am to
quote:

2014 Russia took Crimea and ramped up their efforts in the Donbas.

Was Ukraine on the brink of joining NATO then because that’s when the war started?


Nope, they were closer to joining the EU...

and of course, 2014 was not "the Biden Administration," which I think is your point...

But nobody can scream that Obama was simultaneously pushing Ukraine to join NATO while not doing anything to help Ukraine when Russia invaded. Though I'm sure they will continue to do both.

Ukraine expressed the desire to join NATO in 2002, and made stronger efforts to actually become a member in 2006 and 2008. In 2012 they asked again and there was no consensus on them being allowed to join, so they were not admitted.

I will not say that Putin did not conclude he'd better make his move before they got in, which is what prompted his 2014 actions.

But you can't blame that on Biden... the time frames point more heavily to W. Bush.

POLITIFACT: "What's Ukraine's History of Trying to Join NATO?"


YAHOO NEWS: "Trump Implies Biden's Alleged Support for Ukraine's NATO Accession led to full-scale invasion"

In the podcast, Sacks also claimed, without citing evidence, that "the month before the Russians invaded, (Secretary of State Antony) Blinken told (Russian Foreign Minister Sergey) Lavrov that the (Biden) administration was not only going to bring Ukraine into NATO, but that they thought it was okay for the U.S. to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine."

Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, wrote on X that it was "the first time I have ever heard someone claim that Blinken told Lavrov that the U.S. planned to put nuclear weapons in Ukraine."

"Is there evidence supporting that claim? I've never seen any."

Sacks, who has no specific previous expertise on either Russia or Ukraine and is primarily known in the U.S. as an investor in technology companies, has previously made misleading or unsubstantiated claims about Ukraine.




Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42849 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 8:04 am to
To the best of my knowledge there are no nukes in Germany, Poland, the Baltic States or any of the other ex Warsaw Pact countries.

Correct me if I’m wrong.

So why would you think we wanted nukes in Ukraine?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21086 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 8:38 am to
There are absolutely US nukes in Germany. Maybe you mean in the part that is the former East Germany, and I don't know about that.

Back in April, Poland announced that they were ready to host US nukes, which produced an expected reaction in Russia.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42849 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 9:03 am to
Thxs for setting me straight. W Germany yes, E Germany no nukes.
This post was edited on 6/21/24 at 9:04 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16274 posts
Posted on 6/21/24 at 9:47 am to
Consider his target audience in this podcast. He is selling to a certain segment of the population. These are the same who were backing DeSantis at the beginning and forced DeSantis to basically say Phuck Ukraine. DeSantis failed epically on foreign policy at the starting gate and never recovered
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