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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:38 am to Darth_Vader
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:38 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Well, that’s a more complex matter. The history of Russian persecution of Ukrainians is long and quite terrible, ranging from mass deportations, cultural oppression, and even genocide. During the 1930s, as many as 5 million Ukrainians died, primarily via starvation, in a Soviet caused manmade famine commonly called the Holodomor.
Russian treatment of Ukrainians was so bad that when the Germans invaded in 1941, many Ukrainians viewed them as liberators form Soviet Russian oppression. During WWII, upwards of a quarter of a million Ukrainians fought along side the Germans, serving primarily in Waffen SS formations due to citizenship restrictions on service in the Wehrmacht. That’s why even to this day, the view of Nazis in Ukraine is far more complex than in the West. From their perspective, the Nazis were not as bad as the Russians.
Sure, but those are examples from 80-90 years ago from a government that collapsed. Thats why I specified since the collapse of the USSR
1
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:47 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Russian treatment of Ukrainians was so bad that when the Germans invaded in 1941, many Ukrainians viewed them as liberators form Soviet Russian oppression.
This is an identity issue that goes back to the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth, to Bohdan Khmelnytsky, and to the Russian capture of what had been Ottoman territory along the Black Sea. Parts of modern Ukraine considered themselves part of the West, and other parts do not. You could see the cleavages in the pre war elections, and the way the Party of Regions won in the south and in the east, but you can still see it now even during the war. Overall, 50% of Ukrainians believe draft dodging is okay, but that figure climbs to 70% in the South.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 11:53 am
Posted on 4/29/24 at 11:52 am to VolSquatch
quote:
Sure, but those are examples from 80-90 years ago from a government that collapsed. Thats why I specified since the collapse of the USSR
Yes, but Russian oppression of Ukrainians predates the Soviet Union by centuries. But we’re arguing a matter that is only tangentially relevant to us in the West. From a realpolitik standpoint, Russia could completely swallow Ukraine and it would not affect us in the US. Europe though would most definitely want to finally start taking matters of their own national security as seriously as Poland is doing now.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:10 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Good lord. I quoted the guy one time and now you think I’m his disciple.
I said like Big Serge. You have quoted other people but the vast majority of them have expressed similar opinions. Which is natural human instinct. You have formed an opinion and therefore you present arguments to support it and dismiss arguments that don’t support it. One thing that I have learned in my years in medicine is that people are stubborn. One thing that I have learned from my moonlighting at the VA and my experience in the Army Reserves is that veterans especially old veterans are the most stubborn people on this planet. Humans can not be impartial which is why your claim of being an impartial is laughable.
quote:
Again, get a hold of yourself.
I have a hold of myself. I just like being dramatic. It makes the subject of a stalemate war which is causing the deaths of hundreds of people per day a little less depressing. I guess your old age has caused you to forget how to distinguish between dramatic, someone melting, and someone who has really lost it.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:34 pm to WeeWee
Fwiw Kazakhstan has denied this report
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:36 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
But he definitely wants US and NATO influence out of Ukraine.
Wonder if there is any calculus going on with Georgia and the massive protests going on against the Russian style "foreign agent" law. The protestors are waving EU flags as well as Georgian flags
Posted on 4/29/24 at 12:51 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The protestors are waving EU flags as well as Georgian flags
The EU seems to be a pretty big boon for smaller militaries/economies. Some of the larger countries see the negatives as being outweighed by the positives (France) and others not so much (UK). The UK has always been kind of a maverick though, with the a "we will just sit here on our island and watch you guys do whatever you're going to do" philosophy at times.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 1:04 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Overall, 50% of Ukrainians believe draft dodging is okay, but that figure climbs to 70% in the South.
Do you have a link for that? And what about Russian mobilization. I have several Russian friends who are opposed to this war and fled when the mobilization happened. They don't really speak publicly about their lack of support for obvious reasons
Posted on 4/29/24 at 1:15 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Fwiw Kazakhstan has denied this report
It sounded too good to be true. Even just using the equipment for spare parts should cost more than $20,000 per plane.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 1:45 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Do you have a link for that?
Let me see if I can find it again. I read it in the Ukrainian media.
quote:
I have several Russian friends who are opposed to this war and fled when the mobilization happened.
My Russian friends are almost exclusively liberals, and I saw the same thing with the liberal men I knew. These were people with skills that could earn a decent living outside of Russia, and had travelled extensively outside of the country.
quote:
They don't really speak publicly about their lack of support for obvious reasons
I think there's a social taboo there too.
quote:
And what about Russian mobilization.
The liberals are such small slice society, from conversations, and from everything I've read and seen, I do believe the war is popular. The Russians haven't done any additional mobilizations since the Fall of 22, and they're just relying on volunteers, while at the same time the army has gotten quite a bit larger. Logically, you couldn't do that if there was broad opposition to the war.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:19 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
or in Lee B's case how often he goes on paragraphs long diatribes about how he met the Mayor of Shreveport in 1957 and that even then they talked about how important Ukraine was to Louisiana
Posted on 4/29/24 at 2:36 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It sounded too good to be true. Even just using the equipment for spare parts should cost more than $20,000 per plane.
There were several reports with one stating $20,000 to $81,000 for Soviet Era planes and that France's Rafale would replace them. Kazakhstan publicly put up 117 for sale 6 months ago.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:20 pm to CitizenK
quote:
It sounded too good to be true. Even just using the equipment for spare parts should cost more than $20,000 per plane.
But the Kazakhs would deny it in any case. They are not openly supporting Ukraine and don't want to offend Russia ,so of course they deny.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:53 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
It sounded too good to be true. Even just using the equipment for spare parts should cost more than $20,000 per plane.
But the Kazakhs would deny it in any case. They are not openly supporting Ukraine and don't want to offend Russia ,so of course they deny.
Well if they deny this, how are we supposed to know that their potassium is the best the potassium?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 3:55 pm to CitizenK
quote:
There were several reports with one stating $20,000 to $81,000 for Soviet Era planes and that France's Rafale would replace them.
Russia probably wishes it could get in on that deal and buy some Rafales. Maybe Russian Rafales could dodge Russian SAMs.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:05 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Have you ever been to Ukraine? Do you communicate with people there? I have and I do.
Bot
Meet me at Sonic.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 4:55 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Bot
What are you basing that on?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 5:38 pm to VolSquatch
Get it straight, it was the Mayor of Bossier City in '47 and he predicted this all happening.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 6:01 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
The EU seems to be a pretty big boon for smaller militaries/economies. Some of the larger countries see the negatives as being outweighed by the positives (France) and others not so much (UK). The UK has always been kind of a maverick though, with the a "we will just sit here on our island and watch you guys do whatever you're going to do" philosophy at times.
The UK has never adjusted to its diminished stature on the world stage with the loss of its Empire... just like Putin. A lot of people could not stand being one member state of a Union. That's from friends from there who say when they were growing up there was always someone in the family ranting about leaving the EU, then a couple of Gin and Tonics later imagining they could take back India or something. But things have changed and the UK economy is not the global behemoth it once was... it is dwarfed by the US and China. It is the size of one state in a Union.
The vote that happened was the result of a big chunk of the population thinking they were just voting on something to spite Cameron and not understanding exactly what they were asking for, a lot of people voting on fake things that were pushed like "Closing the Open Borders (it's an Island... they control who comes in)!!!" and a lot of the poor were rightfully resentful of the current dynamic where they could not educate themselves up the ladder because companies in their super class-conscious country were just hiring privileged people from mainland Europe instead of college grads from less privileged working-class backgrounds.
Brexit was a mistake... the UK is worse off than it was and will probably ask to be readmitted at some point.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 6:48 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
from a strictly national interest standpoint, Ukraine is not a strategic partner to the US.
This was exactly Obama's viewpoint, and why he shrugged off Putin's actions in Crimea and the Donbas...
And it might have remained the US position, except for one thing I've watched and read geo-political experts say over and over again:
When the invasion started, the US government thought "well this will be over by lunchtime and we'll just slap some sanctions on Russia like always and see what Europe collectively thinks..."
But then... the Russian military proved to be very inept... "not a modern military at all, just a mob with guns... and nukes."
And that changed the calculus, because if they can't quickly defeat Ukraine's almost non-existent at the time military, when they go up against any actual NATO force, like Poland or Romania, it will be a bloodbath. The entire conventional Russian military will be annihilated and eliminated in a matter of days, if not hours. And we know from their published doctrine that when they are in that position, with their conventional forces defeated, they view the use of Nuclear weapons as justified.
All of the people whose jobs it is to study Putin down to knowing which direction he wipes his arse in say he would do it... he's always been a bit pissy over the fact the US is the country that ever got use nukes and have the world cower.
And, we also have to factor in that like everything else we've seen of the Russian military, they might not even work properly. They might aim for our silos out in the desert but hit heavy population centers.
And that all instantly made Ukraine a vital US security focus.
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