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1
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:16 pm to Lee B
quote:
And that changed the calculus, because if they can't quickly defeat Ukraine's almost non-existent at the time military
The core of the Ukrainian arm was experienced, and had some real training. They had been fighting since 2014. Russias problem was that they were grossly outnumbered, in May of 22 the Ukrainians had at least a 6:1 manpower advantage.
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when they go up against any actual NATO force, like Poland or Romania, it will be a bloodbath. The entire conventional Russian military will be annihilated and eliminated in a matter of days, if not hours.
The Russians now have the most experienced army in the world when it comes to conventional warfare. In any fictional scenario, where they were fighting either Poland or Romania, they would dismantle them. For both Poland and Romania, their last major military experience dates back to 1945.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka as of April 29, but have not made significant advances in the Avdiivka direction over the last 24 hours.
Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.
Investigations by both Ukrainian news agencies and Russian opposition outlets suggest that Russia is denying the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children the ability to repatriate these children, further undermining the Kremlin’s claims that the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a necessary humanitarian endeavor.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on April 29 that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot “wait out” Western support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory.
Telegram recently temporarily blocked chatbots meant to facilitate civilian reports on Russian military activity to official Ukrainian channels, including some channels run by Ukrainian security services.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russian authorities are coercing Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine to join the Russian military.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:41 pm to StormyMcMan
Sounds like Ukraine is still losing. Shocker
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:53 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Maybe. But he definitely wants US and NATO influence out of Ukraine.
He is more threatened by EU influence, and prosperity, being in Ukraine, and Georgia...
The leap in disparity in economic health would cause resentment and stoke one of those color revolutions he fears is going to someday cause people to overthrow and kill him.
As it is, middle-class Russians started noticing that Ukrainians had a higher standard of living. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are explained away as being small and easy for the West to just pump money into to make them seem prosperous as propaganda.
Putin did not start aggressions on Ukraine when they were promised an invitation to NATO... but when the public forced out the administration that changed direction on a campaign promise to join the EU and instead tried to join a pact with Russia, the troops roll in...
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Russians now have the most experienced army in the world when it comes to conventional warfare.
Well, tied with the Ukrainians.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:06 pm to Lee B
quote:
Well, tied with the Ukrainians.
Because of the death toll, overall, no.
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As it is, middle-class Russians started noticing that Ukrainians had a higher standard of living.
Ukraine was much poorer than Russia before the war, the situation was pretty bad. That's why so many Ukrainians lived and worked in Russia, the pay was better in Russia, and the quality of life was better.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:16 pm to Lima Whiskey
haha... Ukrainians had indoor toilets and washing machines. Russia was always the worst off country in the Soviet Union, living standards-wise, and it never caught up.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:20 pm to Lee B
Huge difference between Moscow/St. Pete and the rest of Russia. Economically speaking, there are two Russias, and one of them is much better off than Ukraine and the other is worse.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:24 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Because of the death toll, overall, no.
Between the meat wave attack losses and the upper brass getting killed on the front or falling out of windows, which experienced Russians are supposed to be surviving?
I'll let one of the vets here point out that fallacy of your assertion... but Russia has not been impressive. If Poland or Romania go into battle at least there will be full tanks of gas and fuel supply trucks planned and the tires won't have dry-rotted. How much experience is needed to put guns in people's back and tell them to charge, or to fire missilles?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Huge difference between Moscow/St. Pete and the rest of Russia. Economically speaking, there are two Russias, and one of them is much better off than Ukraine and the other is worse.
Of course,,, but are we going to compare the majority of one population to themost fortunate of another?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:38 pm to Lee B
NYT OP ED: Ukraine's Russian "Liberators" are Seeing That We Live Better Than They Do
These troops were not from Moscow or St. Petersberg, right?
(Article Gifted so no subscription needed to read it)
These troops were not from Moscow or St. Petersberg, right?
(Article Gifted so no subscription needed to read it)
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:44 pm to Lee B
This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:31 pm to Lee B
quote:
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
You linked an article from 2 years ago talking about Kyiv. 95+% of these guys are in bombed out ruins of shitty villages, I doubt they're blown away by the luxuries of Ukraine.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Russians geolocated in one of the northernmost houses of Robotyne. Ukraine lost so much manpower and equipment taking this area during the counteroffensive.
Also made more progress in the Kupiansk direction
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:44 pm to Lee B
quote:
Russia was always the worst off country in the Soviet Union, living standards-wise, and it never caught up.
Ukraine had the most powerful communist party, and it received a lot of state funding, likely because of that, but the Russian SSR was the economic engine of the Soviet Union. The Soviets used Russia to bankroll the other republics. Ukraine was unfortunately looted after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and was effectively run by criminal syndicates who were interested in personal profit and made few investments in the country. You can see the difference now for example when you compare the quality of the roads on either side of the border. There was a basic lack of investment. Russia gets a bad rap for corruption, but the issue is actually more serious in Ukraine. Even during the war, it's the number one issue for Ukrainians.
*The Baltic states were the most developed part of the Soviet Union though.
quote:
This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.
Service is very popular in the countryside, especially the poorer and more traditional areas. Fighting is seen as honorable and you can earn very good money in the army right now.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:53 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Massive ATACMS campaign happening now against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea.
Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:36 am to ColtRange
quote:
If Russia was attacking civilians in these strikes I would obviously feel differently, they're not though, they're attacking infrastructure.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:42 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:43 am to StormyMcMan
There must be an entire Patriot battery or Himars in there somewhere they got to. 
Posted on 4/30/24 at 6:29 am to CitizenK
Random tweets
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The US Treasury Department allowed transactions with russian banks for calculations in the energy sector.
According to the license issued by the US department, the ban on operations is lifted until November 1, 2024.
In the decree, the ministry explained that transactions related to the extraction, production, processing, liquefaction, transportation or purchase of oil and other energy resources, including liquefied natural gas, wood, coal and uranium, will be considered energy-related.
LINK
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3 Russian air defense military units attacked in Crimea this night - Astra citing sources
It is reported about the strikes on the military unit in the village of Donskoye (Simferopol district) and on the facilities of the 31st air defense division of the Defense Ministry of the Russian Federation in the Chernomorsky and Saksky districts.
It is also claimed that ballistic missiles again attacked the Dzhankoy airfield, the location of the helicopter regiment of the 4th Air Force and Air Defense Command of the Southern Military District.
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The Icelandic Parliament has adopted a resolution on long-term support for Ukraine for the period 2024-2028
It aims to support independence, sovereignty, civilian security, humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in Ukraine
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The Ministry of Defense named the amounts of payments to the military for the destruction of russian equipment.
So, you can get UAH 12,180 for an enemy military vehicle, and UAH 48,720 for destroying a tank.
More than UAH 40,000 is paid for the destruction of armored vehicles, and more than UAH 100,000 for the destruction of an airplane or helicopter.
The largest amount is provided for the liquidation of a first-rank ship — more than UAH 243,000.
LINK
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The Kyiv-based Centre for Defence Strategies think tank reported two days ago that "Ukrainian Defense Forces ceased the deployment of GLMRS on the battlefield due to GPS signal suppression by the enemy." I am not sure whether the cessation is complete, but Russians significantly improved their ability to degrade the effectiveness of GPS-based munitions delivered by Ukraine's Western partners.
The effectiveness of Ukraine's Excalibur GPS-guided rounds decreased from 70% to 6% within six weeks as Russia adapted and employed various EW assets to counter them.
LINK
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Estonia will not issue men of draft age to Ukraine for mobilization - country's Interior Ministry
"Mobilization is a matter concerning the state and its citizens. The Interior Ministry has no plan to forcibly repatriate Ukrainian citizens legally residing in Estonia," the adviser of the Interior Ministry's citizenship and migration policy department, Anneli Viks, said.
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Lithuanian authorities have supported the idea of returning men of military age to Ukraine, reports Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonite.
President Gitanas Nauseda said that Ukraine should have the means and tools to "invite its young men to serve their country."
LINK
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Russia used North Korea's Hwasong-11 missile to strike Kharkiv on January 2 - Reuters
This is the conclusion reached by UN experts.
If this information is confirmed, it will mean that North Korea is violating the sanctions imposed on it by the UN Security Council
LINK
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Baltic states accused Russia of suppressing GPS systems near Kaliningrad
The Financial Times quoted a source as saying that Russia was jamming GPS signals to prevent drone attacks on Kaliningrad. Pilots claim they lose their geolocation signal in the air, which means they cannot safely reach their planned destination.
In March 2024, a British Air Force plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps and a group of journalists lost its signal while returning from Poland and flew near Kaliningrad.
In April 2024, The Sun newspaper wrote that thousands of British flights had been subjected to GPS suppression. This is believed to have been done by Russia. Interference in Baltic airspace on more than 2,300 of its flights was reported by Ryanair, Wizz Air on nearly 1,400, British Airways on 82 and EasyJet on four.
On April 25 and 26, two Finnair planes traveling from Helsinki to the Estonian city of Tartu were forced to return to their departure airport due to GPS interference.
According to experts, tens of thousands of civilian flights have been affected by GPS jamming in recent months. The jamming, which affects all GPS users in the area, has also interfered with signals used by ships in the Baltic Sea, leading to warnings from the Swedish navy about the safety of shipping.
Baltic politicians are sounding the alarm, saying such actions by Russia could lead to tragic consequences.
"If someone turns off your headlights while you are driving at night, the trip becomes dangerous. The situation in the Baltic region near Russia's borders has now become too dangerous to ignore," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis said.
"We perceive what is happening with GPS as part of Russia's hostile actions, and we will definitely discuss it with our allies," Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said. She said she considered it "hybrid attacks."
Experts say there are several different sources of GPS interference: one appears to be based in Kaliningrad, another is responsible for interference in Estonia and Finland, and yet another source affects the far north of Norway and Finland.
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