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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:11 pm to Lee B
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:11 pm to Lee B
... this is also why the decisions have been made about not arming Ukraine to the point where they decimate the Russians too quickly, for the same reason. Russia has to collapse from within. The problem is that the Republican House obstruction hurt Ukraine more than we were supposed to allow.
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Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:12 pm to Lee B
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:16 pm to Lee B
quote:
And that changed the calculus, because if they can't quickly defeat Ukraine's almost non-existent at the time military
The core of the Ukrainian arm was experienced, and had some real training. They had been fighting since 2014. Russias problem was that they were grossly outnumbered, in May of 22 the Ukrainians had at least a 6:1 manpower advantage.
quote:
when they go up against any actual NATO force, like Poland or Romania, it will be a bloodbath. The entire conventional Russian military will be annihilated and eliminated in a matter of days, if not hours.
The Russians now have the most experienced army in the world when it comes to conventional warfare. In any fictional scenario, where they were fighting either Poland or Romania, they would dismantle them. For both Poland and Romania, their last major military experience dates back to 1945.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces secured additional marginal tactical gains northwest and southwest of Avdiivka as of April 29, but have not made significant advances in the Avdiivka direction over the last 24 hours.
Russian forces have the opportunity to choose among multiple tactical directions for future offensive drives near Avdiivka, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts in the near future.
Investigations by both Ukrainian news agencies and Russian opposition outlets suggest that Russia is denying the legal guardians of forcibly deported and adopted Ukrainian children the ability to repatriate these children, further undermining the Kremlin’s claims that the deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children is a necessary humanitarian endeavor.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated during an unexpected visit to Kyiv on April 29 that Ukraine’s Western allies must provide long-term, predictable military assistance to Ukraine and signal to the Kremlin that Russia cannot “wait out” Western support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory.
Telegram recently temporarily blocked chatbots meant to facilitate civilian reports on Russian military activity to official Ukrainian channels, including some channels run by Ukrainian security services.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
Ukrainian officials continue to report that Russian authorities are coercing Ukrainians in occupied Ukraine to join the Russian military.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:41 pm to StormyMcMan
Sounds like Ukraine is still losing. Shocker
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:53 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Maybe. But he definitely wants US and NATO influence out of Ukraine.
He is more threatened by EU influence, and prosperity, being in Ukraine, and Georgia...
The leap in disparity in economic health would cause resentment and stoke one of those color revolutions he fears is going to someday cause people to overthrow and kill him.
As it is, middle-class Russians started noticing that Ukrainians had a higher standard of living. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are explained away as being small and easy for the West to just pump money into to make them seem prosperous as propaganda.
Putin did not start aggressions on Ukraine when they were promised an invitation to NATO... but when the public forced out the administration that changed direction on a campaign promise to join the EU and instead tried to join a pact with Russia, the troops roll in...
Posted on 4/29/24 at 7:56 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Russians now have the most experienced army in the world when it comes to conventional warfare.
Well, tied with the Ukrainians.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:06 pm to Lee B
quote:
Well, tied with the Ukrainians.
Because of the death toll, overall, no.
quote:
As it is, middle-class Russians started noticing that Ukrainians had a higher standard of living.
Ukraine was much poorer than Russia before the war, the situation was pretty bad. That's why so many Ukrainians lived and worked in Russia, the pay was better in Russia, and the quality of life was better.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 8:11 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:16 pm to Lima Whiskey
haha... Ukrainians had indoor toilets and washing machines. Russia was always the worst off country in the Soviet Union, living standards-wise, and it never caught up.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:20 pm to Lee B
Huge difference between Moscow/St. Pete and the rest of Russia. Economically speaking, there are two Russias, and one of them is much better off than Ukraine and the other is worse.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:24 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Because of the death toll, overall, no.
Between the meat wave attack losses and the upper brass getting killed on the front or falling out of windows, which experienced Russians are supposed to be surviving?
I'll let one of the vets here point out that fallacy of your assertion... but Russia has not been impressive. If Poland or Romania go into battle at least there will be full tanks of gas and fuel supply trucks planned and the tires won't have dry-rotted. How much experience is needed to put guns in people's back and tell them to charge, or to fire missilles?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Huge difference between Moscow/St. Pete and the rest of Russia. Economically speaking, there are two Russias, and one of them is much better off than Ukraine and the other is worse.
Of course,,, but are we going to compare the majority of one population to themost fortunate of another?
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:38 pm to Lee B
NYT OP ED: Ukraine's Russian "Liberators" are Seeing That We Live Better Than They Do
These troops were not from Moscow or St. Petersberg, right?
(Article Gifted so no subscription needed to read it)
These troops were not from Moscow or St. Petersberg, right?
(Article Gifted so no subscription needed to read it)
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 8:44 pm to Lee B
This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:31 pm to Lee B
quote:
Now the invaders have seen the reality: The Ukrainians live better than they do.
You linked an article from 2 years ago talking about Kyiv. 95+% of these guys are in bombed out ruins of shitty villages, I doubt they're blown away by the luxuries of Ukraine.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. Russians geolocated in one of the northernmost houses of Robotyne. Ukraine lost so much manpower and equipment taking this area during the counteroffensive.
Also made more progress in the Kupiansk direction
Posted on 4/29/24 at 9:44 pm to Lee B
quote:
Russia was always the worst off country in the Soviet Union, living standards-wise, and it never caught up.
Ukraine had the most powerful communist party, and it received a lot of state funding, likely because of that, but the Russian SSR was the economic engine of the Soviet Union. The Soviets used Russia to bankroll the other republics. Ukraine was unfortunately looted after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and was effectively run by criminal syndicates who were interested in personal profit and made few investments in the country. You can see the difference now for example when you compare the quality of the roads on either side of the border. There was a basic lack of investment. Russia gets a bad rap for corruption, but the issue is actually more serious in Ukraine. Even during the war, it's the number one issue for Ukrainians.
*The Baltic states were the most developed part of the Soviet Union though.
quote:
This war is Vladimir Putin’s fatal mistake. Not because of economic sanctions and not because of the huge losses of troops and tanks but because Mr. Putin’s soldiers are from some of the poorest and most rural regions of Russia. Before this war, these men were encouraged to believe that Ukrainians lived in poverty and were culturally, economically and politically inferior.
Service is very popular in the countryside, especially the poorer and more traditional areas. Fighting is seen as honorable and you can earn very good money in the army right now.
This post was edited on 4/29/24 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 4/29/24 at 10:53 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Massive ATACMS campaign happening now against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea.
Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:36 am to ColtRange
quote:
If Russia was attacking civilians in these strikes I would obviously feel differently, they're not though, they're attacking infrastructure.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:42 am to StormyMcMan
Posted on 4/30/24 at 5:43 am to StormyMcMan
There must be an entire Patriot battery or Himars in there somewhere they got to. 
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