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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/1/24 at 9:35 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 3/1/24 at 9:35 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I do not say this due to any goodwill towards Russia or ill will toward Ukraine. I say it because, looking at the strategic situation from an objective standpoint, Ukraine has reached a point where their fortunes will continue to wither as each day the war continues. Simply put, Ukraine cannot improve its bargaining position by means of armed warfare. It is time to negotiate peace. Can Ukraine get a great peace deal today? No. But what they can get today is far better than what they'll get in the coming months. Downvote me all you want, it's the objective truth.
Is it the truth or is it just your interpretation of the truth? Things are not looking good for Ukraine gaining the upper hand on the battlefield right now. However, that does not mean it will always look so. In March 2022, the "neutral experts and observers" like you and Big Serge said it was just a matter of weeks until Kyiv fell. The Ukrainians not only stopped the Russians from advancing on they sent them fleeing with their tails between their legs. In the summer of 2022, after the fall of Kostyantynivka the "neutral observers" were predicting the Russians would advance up the H20 toward Kramastorsk and Slovyansk. However, the Ukrainians stabilized the line and 18 months later the Russians have not moved any closer to Kramastorsk or Slovyansk. After the fall of Bakhmut last spring, the "neutral observers" believed Russia would advance up the E40 to threaten Slovyansk but it has been almost a year since the fall of Bahkmut and Russia has not advanced any significant distance up the E40. So I have a question for you and the other "neutral observers" what in the f**k makes you think Russia can exploit the capture of Avdiivka? This war has shown time and time Russia again that does not have the military capability to exploit its gains. It also does not have the ability to operate on more than one axis for any particular length of time, and even when focussing on one axis it can only advance a few hundred meters per day. This war is a European version of the Iran-Iraq war. There is no end in sight unless Putin does starts dropping nukes and I do not believe he is crazy, brave, evil, or stupid enough to do that. At least I hope and pray he isn’t. Of course Sir Winston and the other Putin lovers would probably be masturbating in the streets if he did.
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 10:37 pm
1
Posted on 3/1/24 at 9:53 pm to Darth_Vader
Interesting perspective, but I would absolutely not call Big Serge 'neutral.'
Respectfully, I remember his hot takes from early war in 2022. And Feb 2023, for that matter.
He joined in March of 2022 and he's been telling a story of imminent Russian victory for 2+ years. Just saying.
** Doesn't mean he's wrong, BTW, Ukraine could be on the verge of collapse ... but I wouldn't take Serge as a definitive source. Nor ISW. **
I only liked Girkin. Hope he's doing okay in prison.
Respectfully, I remember his hot takes from early war in 2022. And Feb 2023, for that matter.
He joined in March of 2022 and he's been telling a story of imminent Russian victory for 2+ years. Just saying.
** Doesn't mean he's wrong, BTW, Ukraine could be on the verge of collapse ... but I wouldn't take Serge as a definitive source. Nor ISW. **
I only liked Girkin. Hope he's doing okay in prison.
This post was edited on 3/1/24 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 3/1/24 at 10:11 pm to SirWinston
quote:
CitizenK absolutely destroyed by Darth
He made the mistake of trying to argue history without actually knowing history. That’s not a good idea as long as I’m around.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 10:14 pm to Darth_Vader
His post mortem on Bakhmut depended heavily on a YouTuber who had been to Ukraine as a tourist BEFORE Feb 2022. I've watched Willie a few times and he depends heavily on Russian milbloggers so I stopped watching him. Sure he is a Aussie veteran, he's also not exactly pro America or pro Western.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 10:17 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
He made the mistake of trying to argue history without actually knowing history. That’s not a good idea as long as I’m around.
Jefferson was not a founding father? Do tell
Posted on 3/1/24 at 10:34 pm to CitizenK
quote:
He made the mistake of trying to argue history without actually knowing history. That’s not a good idea as long as I’m around. Jefferson was not a founding father? Do tell
Darth got you on Tripoli. They provoked us by kidnapping our sailors. That was not a very good example of the founding fathers being world police. James Monroe issuing the Monroe Doctrine would have been a better choice. Not a perfect choice because there are plenty of caveats to exploit, but a better choice.
Posted on 3/1/24 at 10:41 pm to WeeWee
It definitely was a police action overseas is the point.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 4:09 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 March 2024
A week on from the loss of a second A-50U MAINSTAY Airborne early warning and control aircraft, Russia has highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations. This is likely to continue whilst internal investigations take place surrounding the failure to protect another high value enabler, and how to mitigate the threat Ukrainian air defence continues to pose.
The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews. This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine.
It is likely that Russia will have to explore options to bridge this gap, including repurposing aircraft and accepting greater risk to provide the effective air support its ground forces require, but are likely not receiving. This is a prolonged issue that has almost certainly been exacerbated by the removal of A-50s supporting operations. Airframe and crew fatigue are almost certain to intensify once the A-50 does return to operations, with the fleet increasingly stretched. It is a realistic possibility Russia may attempt to bring previously mothballed A-50 airframes back into service to alleviate this.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 02 March 2024
A week on from the loss of a second A-50U MAINSTAY Airborne early warning and control aircraft, Russia has highly likely grounded the fleet from flying in support of Ukraine operations. This is likely to continue whilst internal investigations take place surrounding the failure to protect another high value enabler, and how to mitigate the threat Ukrainian air defence continues to pose.
The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews. This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine.
It is likely that Russia will have to explore options to bridge this gap, including repurposing aircraft and accepting greater risk to provide the effective air support its ground forces require, but are likely not receiving. This is a prolonged issue that has almost certainly been exacerbated by the removal of A-50s supporting operations. Airframe and crew fatigue are almost certain to intensify once the A-50 does return to operations, with the fleet increasingly stretched. It is a realistic possibility Russia may attempt to bring previously mothballed A-50 airframes back into service to alleviate this.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 7:24 am to cypher
Ukrainian Air Force
@KpsZSU
This is the way!
@KpsZSU
This is the way!
Posted on 3/2/24 at 7:53 am to RuLSU
quote:
I would absolutely not call Big Serge 'neutral.'
Only if by "neutral," what you really mean is "100% pro-Russian, all the time."
Posted on 3/2/24 at 8:11 am to SirWinston
quote:
He built a decent amount of it despite being sold out time and time again by GOPe bitches like you.
LOL. Do you actually believe that, or are you just reflexively parroting the line that you're supposed to?
- The US-Mexico border is 1,954 miles. According to Wikipedia, 49 miles of new barrier were built during the Trump administration, and 401 miles that had a barrier got an improved barrier. Less than half of the border still has any kind of barrier at all.
- The Senate bill negotiated a month ago by Sen. Lankford contained $560 million in funding for new wall construction. That's part of the reason that the GOP House rejected it: they don't actually want to stop mass migration across the border -- they just want to keep their sheep angry about mass migration across the border.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 8:17 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
$560 million in funding for new wall construction.
but 90bil to Ukraine What deal makers those GOPe are
Posted on 3/2/24 at 8:29 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
LOL. Do you actually believe that, or are you just reflexively parroting the line that you're supposed to?
What is interesting is that a former neighbor performed 50% of the flora and fauna survey of the Mexican border during GWB's time in office. This was for the environmental survey required before construction of a fence. They opted for a "digital" fence with monitoring stations from El Paso to the existing fences in CA. Another aspect is that due drainage issues there are large culverts crossing under fenced areas in CA without any grating that would cause debris buildup and stop drainage.
The neighbor worked for GSRI, based in Baton Rouge which had the contract to perform required environmental surveys for both the Mexican and Canadian borders.
Additionally, he worked as an observer during construction of the "digital" fence locations. At times they had to vacate the job site because men in Mexican military uniform approached the border and per him it was due to some treaty where they had to move back a few miles to avoid any confrontation until the uniformed dudes departed.
As far as miles goes, there are some areas with sheer cliffs on both sides of the Rio Grande along with some mountains in NM, AZ and CA where only mountain climbers would be crossing.
Another interesting fact is that a lot of crop duster pilots during the off season would work for smugglers to fly "goods" across the border back in the 60's, 70's and 80's.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 8:58 am to CitizenK
Side 1:
United States
United Kingdom
France
Israel
et al
Side 2:
Russia
North Korea
Iran
China
et al
Which side is the poLOLiboard on? The answer may (won’t) surprise you!
United States
United Kingdom
France
Israel
et al
Side 2:
Russia
North Korea
Iran
China
et al
Which side is the poLOLiboard on? The answer may (won’t) surprise you!
This post was edited on 3/2/24 at 8:59 am
Posted on 3/2/24 at 8:59 am to CitizenK
Take your L
Posted on 3/2/24 at 9:01 am to SirWinston
quote:
Take your L
quote:
SirWinston
yikes
Posted on 3/2/24 at 9:08 am to Hateradedrink
World isn’t that black and white. We see people suffering here and ask WHY do we give a flying frick about the Ukrainian people? They aren’t our problem or responsibility. This war has proven Russia is incapable of taking over anything close to a powerful nation.
We need the resources utilized here.
We need the resources utilized here.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 9:09 am to cypher
quote:
The loss of this capability providing daily command and control to Russian air operations highly likely significantly degrades the situational awareness provided to air crews. This is a capability gap Russia can ill afford over the contested airspace of eastern and southern Ukraine.
Oh man, Russia has got it coming now....the Ukraine Victory is imminent!
Posted on 3/2/24 at 9:11 am to Hateradedrink
Our governments are the greatest threat to our welfare and prosperity.
Posted on 3/2/24 at 9:16 am to Hateradedrink
I hope you are not serious..
Put it this way. If Putin chooses to launch any nuke device into ANY nato country is the day he dies, as well as a shitload of innocent russian people. China is too dependent on the USA. North Korea is all talk. Iran knows better….
Put it this way. If Putin chooses to launch any nuke device into ANY nato country is the day he dies, as well as a shitload of innocent russian people. China is too dependent on the USA. North Korea is all talk. Iran knows better….
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