re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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The staffing cuts would have killed the plant.

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It was never in danger of closing.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukraine continues to defend against Russian aggression and the Kremlin’s attempt to destroy Ukrainian statehood and identity despite growing difficulties two years after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Ukraine’s European and Canadian partners commemorated the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion by committing additional aid to Ukraine and discussing Ukraine’s integration into the European Union (EU).

Russian opposition media estimated that upwards of 75,000 Russian personnel have died in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to highlight Russian Central Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev and Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka.

Mordvichev highlighted Russian technological and tactical adaptations in the Russian seizure of Avdiivka in a likely effort to address persistent criticisms of Russian forces in Ukraine.

Senior Russian military officials likely are attempting to deflect responsibility for high-profile apparent Russian war crimes away from themselves and onto mid- and low-level Russian commanders.

A recent Russian opinion poll indicates that Russian sentiments about the war in Ukraine have largely remained unchanged in recent months, but notably suggests that another mobilization wave would be widely unpopular.

Ukrainian special services conducted a drone strike on one of Russia’s largest metallurgical plants on the night of February 23-24.

Ukrainian reporting indicated that the A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft shot down on February 23 temporarily halted Russian aviation operations elsewhere in the theater.

Russian information space actors continued responding to the February 23 A-50 shootdown and largely denied that Ukraine is responsible for the downing of any recent Russian aircraft.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut and Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 24.

Indian authorities have asked Russian authorities for the “early discharge” of Indian citizens fighting for Russia in Ukraine.

The Russian government continues efforts to support infrastructure and logistics development in occupied Ukraine likely to support the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and solidify Russian control over occupied areas.

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We need more realists like Mearsheimer.
PBS mini debate.

Regarding equipment and ammo, all Biden needs to do is signed an executive order declaring all the old stuff as surplus and give it to Ukraine. They would be overrun with equipment and swamped with ammo. There are still millions of cluster munitions available and Obama declared them to be set for destruction.

No congressional action needed. Biden has never been serious about Ukraine. It sure looks like Biden is trying to splinter the GOP.

The politards will never understand

I appreciate that we can make "Ukraine has lost" fit whatever conditions we need to fit whatever point/argument we want to make

CNN just ran a piece with their foreign correspondent saying that everyday Ukranian citizens are puzzled by Trumps "affinity" for Putin.

I get that you can dislike Trump being far more neutral to Putin and Russia, but why the gaslighting?

Trump clearly will be inclined to dislike Zelenskyy after the dude essentially left DJT twisting in the wind during the phone call / impeachment controversy in 2019.

Russia invaded Ukraine under Obama, who did not provide Ukraine with weapons to prevent such an attack. Trump DID provide Ukraine with tank-busting Javelin missiles, and Russia did not invade Ukraine during his presidency. Despite this, Zelenskyy could not be bothered to offer the slightest defense of Trump.

Then Russia invades Ukraine almost immediately after Biden takes office.

Durrr... I wonder why Trump isn't Zelenskyys biggest fan. Zelenskyy threw in 100% with the Democrats and these are the cards he's now been dealt.

I’m just about 99.99% positive that F-16s aren’t already flying combat sorties in Ukraine but I do agree that all this announcing what’s in aid packages and what’s going to be delivered when should stop, especially for big ticket items like F-16s, Patriots, ATACMS, etc and let the Russians find out the hard way like you said. Hell I would hide when i got more artillery shells, drones, armored vehicles right on down to small arms ammunition if possible. There’s no tactical sense in giving the Russians any advantage.

On another more important note. Damn does the f-16 look good in Ukrainian pixel camouflage! That’s going to be a good looking fleet of aircraft assuming they repaint them.

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ISW Update

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This is from the full report:

More Russian soldiers have likely died to seize Avdiivka than died in the entire Soviet-Afghan war.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 24

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The thing you may not be aware of is how ideological the academic-sounding Institute for the Study of War is. It has neoconservative roots and is run and staffed by pretty extreme hawks. Over the years it has gotten funding from various corners of the arms industry — General Dynamics, Raytheon, lesser known defense contractors, and big companies, like General Motors, that aren’t known as defense contractors but do get Pentagon contracts.

The president and founder of the Institute for the Study of War is Kimberly Kagan, a military historian who is married to Frederick Kagan, who is also a military historian and does work for ISW. Frederick is a well-known neoconservative, though not as well-known as his brother Robert. In the 1990s, Robert Kagan, along with Chaim "Bill" Kristol (who is on ISW’s board), founded the Project for a New American Century, which in the view of some observers played an important role in convincing George W. Bush to invade Iraq.


Robert Kagan’s wife, Victoria Nuland, is the state department official who very publicly supported Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution—the overthrow of pro-Russia President Viktor Yanukovych, which led Russia to seize Crimea and give military support to secessionist rebels in the Donbass. Nuland also played a behind-the-scenes role in this transition of power that, according to some of her detractors, amounted to orchestrating a coup.

And as long as we’re going down rabbit holes: The Kagan-Kristol Project for a New American Century was funded by arms makers, thanks largely to the work of Lockheed Martin executive Bruce P. Jackson, who became a director of PNAC. Jackson had earlier organized the US Committee to Expand NATO, which successfully lobbied for what its name suggests it lobbied for. Some people think NATO expansion—in particular George W. Bush’s 2008 addition of Ukraine to the list of future members—helped cause the Ukraine war, but in any event NATO expansion has over the past quarter century made lots and lots of money for Lockheed Martin and other arms makers.

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