re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Mykhailo Fedorov
@FedorovMykhailo

An absolute record from the Army of Drones. During last week, our heroes hit 428 pieces of Russian equipment: 101 cannons, 88 armored vehicles, 75 tanks etc. UAVs proved to be very efficient in the defense of Avdiivka. More drones are coming soon.

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US provided Switchblade drones cost over $50k each. Ukraine is effectively using drones that cost $500 to a few thousand.

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Russia is reduced to selling oil at a loss, and a discounted sale at that

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It certainly was selling at a loss when Brent was sold at $50 and below. The $60 insurance cap was so that it could make enough money to not completely implode.

Its cash cow was actually refined products and that is wayyyy down, down enough that it suspended any exports so that farmers could have fuel for the harvest this year. So this means that refineries are limping at a loss if even open

It's a proxy war!

ISW Update

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Russia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades to reinforce offensive operations by Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces on the Avdiivka front. A Ukrainian military observer reported on October 16 that three Russian brigades — the DNR’s 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade (MRB) and the CMD’s 15th and 21st MRBs (both of the 2nd Combined Arms Army [2nd CAA]) — have been involved in recent attacks on Avdiivka alongside various scattered DNR elements, while Russian forces are holding the CMD’s 30th MRB in tactical reserve.[1] Elements of the CMD, particularly of the 2nd CAA, have been active along the Svatove-Kreminna line until recently, and the newly formed 25th CAA likely relieved them along the Svatove-Kreminna line.[2] 2nd CAA elements have primarily conducted defensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line for the last several months and have therefore likely had more time to rest and reconstitute before deploying to a more challenging sector of the frontline, which accounts in part for recent Russian advances in the previously stagnant Avdiivka sector of the front.

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction on October 16 and recently made some gains, albeit at a relatively slower pace than in the initial attacks. Geolocated footage posted on October 16 shows that Russian forces have marginally advanced past the E50 road about 3km south of Avdiivka.[3] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a total of 22 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka direction in the past day, notably fewer than the 30 reported attacks on October 15.[4] Russian sources noted that Russian forces have increased the intensity of air and artillery strikes on the settlement in order to compensate for slow ground maneuvers, which are complicated by heavy Ukrainian fortifications surrounding Avdiivka.[5] During a meeting on the operational situation in Ukraine on October 16, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have improved their tactical positions in unspecified areas and that the Russian “active defense” along the front, including near Avdiivka, is prohibiting Ukrainian advances

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and Bakhmut directions.[7] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted assaults near Avdiivka and on Verbove’s western and northwestern outskirts (10km east of Robotyne or 18km southwest of Orikhiv).[8] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are within 200 to 300 meters of Russian positions west of Verbove.[9]

Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova reiterated statements admitting that Russia deported millions of Ukrainians — including 700,000 children — to Russia since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as a Qatari-mediated deal returned four children from Russia to Ukraine. Lvova-Belova claimed in a report published on October 15 that Russia has “accepted” about 4.8 million Ukrainians, including 700,000 children, since February 2022 and that Russian authorities have placed 380 Ukrainian orphans into foster care in Russia between April and October 2022.[10] Lvova-Belova also attempted to discredit information about Russia’s deportation of Ukrainian children and claimed instead that Ukrainian authorities act “against the interests of children.”[11] The Washington Post reported on October 16 that four children ranging from two to seventeen years old have returned or will return to Ukraine from Russia after Ukraine asked Qatar to mediate negotiations on the matter

Some Russian milbloggers continue to complain about the alleged restriction of information about Russian military failures. A Russian milblogger criticized an unspecified associate of Russian Lieutenant General Andrey Sychevoy, who was reportedly recently dismissed from a command position for military failures near Bakhmut, for causing Russian forces (presumably near Bakhmut) to suffer 1,500 casualties in September 2023.[14] The milblogger also criticized the broader Russian military command for communication failures and forcing injured personnel back into combat.[15] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have crossed the railway line south of Bakhmut in some places and complained that only one major milblogger has discussed this issue, underlining the fact that many milbloggers restrict their presentation of negative information about Russian capabilities

Russian forces conducted a drone and missile strike against Ukrainian rear areas on the night of October 15-16. Ukrainian military sources reported that Russian forces launched five Kh-59 cruise missiles, one Iskander ballistic missile in eastern and southern Ukraine, and 12 Shahed-131/136 drones in western Ukraine.[18] Ukrainian air defense reportedly destroyed two of the Kh-59s and 11 Shahed drones

A new Russian procedure restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainians can use to enter Russia from third countries came into force on October 16, effectively only allowing Ukrainians to enter Russia from third countries through the Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow. The new procedure only allows Ukrainians aged 14 and older to enter Russia from third countries through the Ludonka automobile checkpoint from Latvia and Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow.[22] Latvia announced on October 12 that it would close its side of the Ludonka checkpoint beginning on October 16

A group of Russian lawyers appears to be challenging the Kremlin’s precariously crafted veneer of legality surrounding the Russian judicial system, calling for a strike three days after Russian authorities arrested four lawyers on extremism charges. A group of Russian lawyers published a petition encouraging members of the Russian Federal and Regional Chambers of Lawyers and other public lawyer associations to strike from all types of legal proceedings from October 25 to 28 in response to commonplace intimidation of lawyers in the Russian judicial system.[26] The petition states that Russian authorities often ignore violations of the professional rights of lawyers and threaten violence against them on “trumped-up administrative and criminal charges.”[27] The petition also argues that Russian judges increasingly abuse their powers and accuse Russian law enforcement officers of perpetrating crimes against lawyers. The petition states that “sophisticated methods of prosecuting lawyers for their professional activities on far-fetched administrative and criminal charges” have become established practices by Russian law enforcement agencies and courts. This petition comes three days after Russian authorities arrested four lawyers, including three of imprisoned Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny’s lawyers, on extremism charges on October 13.[28] The Russian lawyers calling for a strike appear unwilling to further tolerate the Kremlin’s weaponization of the Russian judicial system, challenging the Kremlin’s veneer of legality and legitimacy in Russian institutions that are intended to provide cover for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian and corrupt rule

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Russia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades

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A group of Russian lawyers appears to be challenging the Kremlin’s precariously crafted veneer of legality

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enior Russian officials reiterated boilerplate narratives about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Israel-Hamas war during a Russian Security Council meeting on October 16 likely to deter Western support for Ukraine.

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One of these is probably right

Sputnik news daily activity map seems to show an uptick in Russian attacks. As this is propaganda it could mean nothing, but.........with the attention on the Gaza murders, maybe the war is heating up there also.

This is what the Berdyansk airfield looked like a few weeks ago:





This morning, Ukraine is claiming not only to have struck this airfield, but also one in Luhansk.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 October 2023

Russia has highly likely begun a coordinated offensive across multiple axes in the east of Ukraine. Russian forces in Donetsk are conducting a combined arms offensive on the heavily defended town of Avdiivka, which has been on the front line since 2014. The town is a major obstacle in preventing Russian forces from their wider objective of taking control of Donetsk Oblast.

Russia's attack is likely being carried out with multiple armoured battalions, which are attempting to envelop the town. It is likely to be the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023.

Entrenched Ukrainian forces have so far likely held back the Russian advance, with the latter sustaining heavy equipment and personnel losses. Slow progress and high casualties have likely triggered a change in messaging from Russia, from an offensive to 'active-defence, as successfully clearing Avdiivka looks increasingly unlikely in the short term.

Ukraine's special forces say they destroyed 9 Russian helicopters in occupied territories

by Dinara Khalilova and The Kyiv Independent news desk October 17, 2023 2:47 PM

Ukrainian overnight strikes on Russian military airfields in occupied Luhansk and Berdiansk destroyed nine helicopters, an anti-aircraft missile launcher, and an ammunition warehouse, the Special Operations Forces reported on Oct. 17.

The attacks also hit the airfields’ runways and “special equipment" stored at the premises, the Ukrainian military said, without elaborating on the nature of this equipment.

Dozens of Russian personnel were killed and wounded as a result of the operation, according to the report. “Bodies are still being pulled from the rubble.”

The Special Operations Forces is a branch of Ukraine’s Armed Forces that conducts reconnaissance missions and covert operations behind enemy lines.

More details from Ukrainska Pravda...

The Special Operations Forces (SOF) of Ukraine jointly with the Defence Forces of Ukraine conducted an operation of striking the air bases in the temporarily occupied cities of Berdiansk and Luhansk.

Source: press service of SOF, which provides the details of the Dragonfly operation

Details: Reportedly, the SOF have obtained information about the Russians using the air bases in the temporarily occupied cities of Berdiansk and Luhansk and storing a significant amount of ammunition, aircraft and special equipment.

The information was checked and confirmed. The SOF handed over the location and necessary information to the units of the Defence Forces of Ukraine. The Russians have suffered significant losses as a result of the strike on the night of 16-17 October.

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Russian Ka-52s made a significant impact on the Ukrainian offensive in the south, as their ATGMs could hit Bradleys and Leopards while safely out of range of Ukrainian MANPADs.

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Ukraine does have a number of older, longer range HAWK anti-air missiles.

Knocking out those Ka-52s, is very significant since the armor and vehicles are soon to be mired in mud.