re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Yes they have a shitload of armored vehicles and other military equipment at SIAD but you’ve also got to factor in a good portion of that is in long term storage which means a lot won’t be operational anymore and would probably just be good for scavenging parts and the ones that can still operate would still need work to get them battle ready. They still have M60 tanks and M113 APCs from the Vietnam era out there in the desert. Still, there’s no question we could hand them another 150 Bradleys and 100 M1A1 tanks without degrading our forces at all. The big thing here is their ability to maintain a fleet that large without having to send them back to Poland for repairs. I wasn’t a tanker so I’m not sure what their ratio of operating hours versus maintenance hours are but our aircraft for every one flight hour averaged around 15 hours of maintenance. This of course is not always the case, sometimes it can be very minimal while other repairs could take a hell of a lot longer. The Soviets made crude equipment that they pumped out in large numbers but in general were easier to work on while the U.S. went hard and heavy on quality instead of quantity which in turn requires more skilled labor than say a T-72 or BMP. We have some tankers in here I’m sure they can tell you exactly what keeping those Abrams and Bradley’s running which I’m sure is a lot. Maintenance is one aspect but maybe the even larger problem with sending more tanks and IFVs are the colossal logistics that have to accompany armored units on the move wether that be dozens and dozens of tanker trucks for fuel or vehicles to carry ammunition once they run out.

ISW Update

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Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows Russian forces striking Ukrainian positions northwest and west of Robotyne, indicating that Ukrainian forces have advanced into an area near the settlement that Russian forces previously claimed to control.[1] Additional geolocated footage posted on September 5 shows that Ukrainian forces have also advanced south of Robotyne and northwest of Verbove (about 10km east of Robotyne).[2] Geolocated evidence of Ukrainian forces northwest of Verbove suggests that Ukrainian forces are advancing along the line of Russian fortifications that runs into the settlement.

Russian sources continue to complain that Russian forces lack sufficient counterbattery capabilities and artillery munitions in the face of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive activities, which the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are reportedly attempting to combat. Russian milbloggers claimed on September 4 and 5 that Russian counterbattery systems are performing poorly along the front in Ukraine.[4] The milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are relying heavily on Lancet drones and 220mm and 300mm rounds for Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), of which there are limited stockpiles.[5] One Russian milblogger noted that the Russian MoD‘s plans to form five new artillery brigades in each of Russia’s five military districts are in part meant to improve general counterbattery capabilities.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area are likely succeeding in pinning elements of the 7th Guards Mountain Airborne (VDV) Division and preventing them from laterally redeploying to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhia Oblast. A Russian milblogger posted an audio recording on September 5 purportedly from a soldier in the Russian 247th VDV Regiment in which the soldier claims that he has to retrieve bodies of Russian personnel near Staromayorske because the Russian command is not overseeing the retrieval of bodies and claimed that his unit lost 49 killed in action in one day of fighting

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric intended to dismiss recent Ukrainian advances and highlight the beginning of a new academic year for Russian military institutions during a meeting with Russian military leadership on September 5. Shoigu claimed that the Ukrainian forces had not achieved any of their goals for the counteroffensive.[13] Shoigu noted that the Zaporizhia direction, most likely referring to the Robotyne area, has become the tensest area of the front lines and that Ukrainian forces have committed several brigades from their “strategic reserve” to this area.[14] Shoigu claimed that Russian forces have destroyed a heavily exaggerated amount of Ukrainian personnel and military equipment since the Ukrainian counteroffensive began in June 2023.[15] Shoigu noted that Russian military schools and training programs began a new academic year on September 1.[16] Shoigu also noted that the curriculum of Russian military training programs has been adjusted to prepare students for the conditions they would face fighting in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin drew historical parallels between Soviet participation in the Second World War and the current war in Ukraine to set ideological expectations for a prolonged war effort. Putin gave a speech on September 5 that invoked the memory of significant Soviet military victories during the Second World War, including turning points in the battles of Stalingrad and Kursk and recapturing the Caucasus and Donbas.

The Armenian government appears to be seriously questioning its decades-long security relationship with Russia, amid reports of Armenian humanitarian aid to Ukraine and increasing public dissatisfaction with Russia’s security guarantees. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty’s Armenia service Radio Azatutyun reported on September 5th that the Armenian government has reportedly sent unspecified humanitarian aid to Ukraine for the first time since the war in Ukraine began.[21] Radio Azatutyan’s sources claimed that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s wife Anna Hakobyan will personally deliver the aid to Kyiv and attend the “Third Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen” that begins on September 6.

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian sources continue to complain that Russian forces lack sufficient counterbattery capabilities and artillery munitions in the face of ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive activities, which the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) are reportedly attempting to combat.

Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area are likely succeeding in pinning elements of the 7th Guards Mountain Airborne (VDV) Division and preventing them from laterally redeploying to critical areas of the front in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric intended to dismiss recent Ukrainian advances and highlight the beginning of a new academic year for Russian military institutions during a meeting with Russian military leadership on September 5.

Russian President Vladimir Putin drew historical parallels between Soviet participation in the Second World War and the current war in Ukraine to set ideological expectations for a prolonged war effort.

The Armenian government appears to be seriously questioning its decades-long security relationship with Russia, amid reports of Armenian humanitarian aid to Ukraine and increasing public dissatisfaction with Russia’s security guarantees.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 5.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Bakhmut, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 5.

Russian sources continue to report on Russian efforts to recruit volunteers amid continued rumors of general mobilization.

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reportedly attempted to assassinate a Russian occupation official in occupied Luhansk Oblast on September 5.

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our aircraft for every one flight hour averaged around 15 hours of maintenance. 

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So after a three hour flight it would require round the clock maintenance for nearly two full days?

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So after a three hour flight it would require round the clock maintenance for nearly two full d

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No it’s just an average. As long as the plane doesn’t break it can fly 3-4 sorties a day with regular preventive maintanence and checks in bewtween missions. The 15 hours accounts for planned inspections and more serious malfunctions that occur. Like if you fly the plane for 100 hours a year that would be 1500 hours of maintenance, which is about 62 days. And that’s during peacetime conditions where we’re adhering to every conceivable safety precaution.

So if you have 100 aircraft, how many are down for extended maintenance at any one time?

You’d be looking at anywhere from 75% operational on a good day but there’s also times where you might have 50% of the fleet grounded for one issue or another. Some are only grounded for short periods, others longer. That may seem like a low number to keep operational but that’s actually very reasonable and ground crews fight to keep that many going. Other countries are far worse than us at properly maintaining our equipment.

It just depends on what the aircraft needs done but sure if you knew ahead of time you would need as many operational aircraft as possible you could work to get that number higher but our AF is aging by the day. A lot of the airframes we still operate have a lot of flight hours on them and just like as a truck gets older it needs more maintenance the same goes for the air wing of our military. Case in point: the F-15 C/Ds that have been stationed at Kadena on Okinawa are being pulled out of frontline service while they rotate in the F-35 and the F-15 Strike Eagle to take it’s place. Or just about the entire fleet of A-10s needs new wings installed on them from years of taking a beating hauling such heavy loadouts which is why they look to be all headed for retirement instead of funding the necessary work needed to keep it flying.

The A-10 is only viable if you have air superiority. In Ukraine it would get slaughtered like the Su-25 has been for both Russia and Ukraine. You will always need good pilots on the stick but there’s no doubt though that drones have changed the entire game.

Retired A-10 squadron commander told me that even in the 1980's the plane was expected to have high casualty rate attacking an invading Soviet force.

He suggested in Feb 2022 that drone formations would be much more effective, especially cost.