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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:54 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 9/4/23 at 11:54 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
. You’re assuming the tanks and missiles keep flowing forever. And that Ukraine doesn’t attrit its own army to death in an attempt to attrit the Russians.
NATO plus Ukraine's own rebuilding weapons industry can far outpace Russia in production of materiel. Russia consistently drags out older and older equipment from deep storage.
The Ukrainian attrition concern is its men. Ukraine can no longer recruit many volunteers, and any mobilization larger than what it is already doing would seriously harm its already crippled economy. And that's the main reason that Ukraine needs more western weapons: the survivability of Ukrainian troops is so much higher inside NATO equipment. The Soviets never cared much about protecting troops, because they always knew that they'd have plenty of them.
1
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:03 pm to GOP_Tiger
Newly geolocated footage has confirmed that Ukrainian troops occupy the next fortified line. I put a purple star over the spot.
Geolocation
Geolocation
Posted on 9/4/23 at 1:47 pm to GOP_Tiger
NY Times
quote:
Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, plans to travel to Russia this month to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin to discuss the possibility of supplying Russia with more weaponry for its war in Ukraine and other military cooperation, according to American and allied officials.
quote:
Mr. Putin wants Mr. Kim to agree to send Russia artillery shells and antitank missiles, and Mr. Kim would like Russia to provide North Korea with advanced technology for satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, the officials said.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 2:06 pm to No Colors
quote:
"The inevitable conclusion to defensive warfare is surrender."
--- Napoleon
Seriously?
Posted on 9/4/23 at 2:42 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
He said no “budgetary cost”. Whether or not it plays out like that over 50 years is up for debate, but it is a fact that it does not affect the budget. That’s the point of lend-lease.
No, the point of this is to muddy the water and hide the true amount of money it will cost.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
To review:
- Russia is losing ground at an accelerating pace
- Russia is looking to muster 400k+ mobilization this fall
- Russia is mobilizing new citizens that were given rapid passports
- Russia is buying weapons from North Korea
- Russia is forcing 14-year olds to work in factories to make up for their labor shortage
Look, I realize the counter-offensive is going either poorly or extremely slow, but let's not pretend like it's a rosy picture for Russia, either.
That's just news from the past few weeks.
- Russia is losing ground at an accelerating pace
- Russia is looking to muster 400k+ mobilization this fall
- Russia is mobilizing new citizens that were given rapid passports
- Russia is buying weapons from North Korea
- Russia is forcing 14-year olds to work in factories to make up for their labor shortage
Look, I realize the counter-offensive is going either poorly or extremely slow, but let's not pretend like it's a rosy picture for Russia, either.
That's just news from the past few weeks.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:41 pm to WhereisAtlanta
quote:
No, the point of this is to muddy the water and hide the true amount of money it will cost.
We could send 300 Bradleys and it would cost less than getting rid of them here. Paid for during Ronald Reagan. We could also send 2000 more M1A1 Abrams. Same thing
This post was edited on 9/4/23 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:44 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:45 pm to CitizenK
quote:
We could send 300 Bradleys and it would cost less than getting rid of them here. Paid for during Ronald Reagan. We could also send 2000 more M1A1 Abrams. Same thing
If it’s basically free and we have 300 Bradley’s and 2000 tanks laying around then why haven’t we sent them? I mean 2000 M1A1 virtually guarantees a win for Ukraine.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:48 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If it’s basically free and we have 300 Bradley’s and 2000 tanks laying around then why haven’t we sent them? I mean 2000 M1A1 virtually guarantees a win for Ukraine.
The numbers themselves are exaggerations, but the main obstacle is purely political. Essentially, the no-nay-never sorts who look at the cost of international shipping, even when its less than the slated cost of disposal, as funding a foreign war with American tax payer money.
Nevermind its cheaper. Never mind, it'll be used to counter our geostrategic enemies of the last century.
Its easy, pandering, Orange Man Bad style politics, in reverse.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 3:59 pm to BoardReader
Nah Congress and the administration could give pretty much anything to Ukraine with little to no blowback. The vast majority of Americans don’t really care about the war. The majority are probably rooting for Ukraine but even then I’d be surprised if over 20% of Americans could point to Ukraine on a map. Conversely if we ceased all aid and let Ukraine get steamrolled the political blow back wouldn’t be that much worse than sending trillions in aid.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:04 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
20% of Americans could point to Ukraine on a map.
20% of all Americans can't name every state, don't know the Vice President, and don't know Puerto Ricans are Americans.
This post was edited on 9/4/23 at 4:05 pm
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:08 pm to Dr RC
quote:
20% of all Americans can't name every state
You are being very generous
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:09 pm to Dr RC
quote:
20% of all Americans can't name every state, don't know the Vice President, and don't know Puerto Ricans are Americans.
And even less know where Ukraine is or even care. That’s the point.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:20 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If it’s basically free and we have 300 Bradley’s and 2000 tanks laying around then why haven’t we sent them? I mean 2000 M1A1 virtually guarantees a win for Ukraine.
You answered the question yourself. The Biden administration doesn't want Ukraine to win. Or, at least, they don't want Ukraine to win quickly.
And I get it, because I've made the argument here before. The longer that the war goes on, the more Russian equipment gets destroyed, the more that the Russian economy is compromised, and the longer it takes Russia to rebuild anything. They want to boil the Russian frog, as it were, and they've said as much.
After the war had gone on for a few months, there were jokes about Russia pulling T-62s out of storage, and then they did it. Then, there were jokes about Russia pulling T-55s out of storage, and then they did it. Now, people make jokes about them pulling T-34s out of storage, so who knows?
A Russian collapse, on the other hand, could result in Putin losing power (with unpredictable consequences) and in instability throughout the region.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:27 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Perun is back with a comprehensive overview of the air war. Drones, helicopters, the impact of F-16s -- he covers it all.
EDIT: My apologies. This is the same video that CitizenK posted earlier. (Still very much worth watching.)
Good solid rundown of relative strengths and weaknesses.
I hope they are going to get some excellent F16 simulators to broaden the basic training.
I suspect that experienced pilots won't have a very hard time adapting. My father flew a lot of aircraft in his day. He said the Lancaster was the hardest to adapt to.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Newly geolocated footage has confirmed that Ukrainian troops occupy the next fortified line. I put a purple star over the spot.
Once they are inside the line of trenches the chances of rolling them up would seem to be much better especially if counter battery fire does great damage to Russian artillery.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:45 pm to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine has now taken the Russian trench positions immediately to the south of Robotyne. This was previously considered to be one of Russia's most strongly fortified positions.
Map from @DefMon3
And here's a thread from Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group (whose map is probably my overall favorite) about the new developments, with some additional details.
They just updated their map:
Map from @DefMon3
And here's a thread from Emil Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group (whose map is probably my overall favorite) about the new developments, with some additional details.
quote:
I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control.
The Russian defence is likely experiencing difficulties. They haven't been able to push Ukrainians back anywhere in this sector.
The situation can be even worse for the Russians than shown here - the map is a conservative estimate based on geolocations and satellite imagery.
They just updated their map:
Posted on 9/4/23 at 4:59 pm to GOP_Tiger
Russian-controlled Transnistria will now have to get its natural gas from Romania and/or Moldova. There are a lot of little ways to put pressure on Transnistria, and this is a good step.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 5:22 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
If it’s basically free and we have 300 Bradley’s and 2000 tanks laying around then why haven’t we sent them? I mean 2000 M1A1 virtually guarantees a win for Ukraine.
You will have to ask Biden that question. They are all sitting at the Sierra Depot in CA at the border of Nevada. Rows upon rows of them and MORE
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