re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

quote:

---

When is pilot training slated to start?

---

It has already started. Ukraine received and set up a F-16 simulator from the Czech Republic earlier this month and the 8 pilots with adequate English skills have started training on it.

quote:

---

I heard it wouldn’t even begin until the end of the year.

---

I believe that is the in aircraft part of the training which is supposed to start in Denmark and Romania.

quote:

---

Denmark's acting Defense Minister Troels Poulsen said in July that the country hoped to see "results" from the training in early 2024.

---

LINK

The first training site in Denmark is already operational it is just waiting on the Ukrainian pilots to finish simulator training. Denmark believes it can have its first patch of Ukrainian pilots trained by early 2024 which is consistent with the rumored 6 month training cycle. Setting up a second training center in Romania is where the delay is coming from because eastern european countries are not exactly known for doing things quickly.

quote:

---

Is that why 20% of Ukraine is now Russia?

---

Well russia’s goal was 100 percent, but congrats on accomplishing 1/5 of your objective!

Also, half of that 1/5 was already in Russian hands before Putin invaded, so that’s even less of its ambitions that Russia has achieved ..

Also, Ukraine isn’t in NATO, so..

Should I keep going ?

quote:

---

NATO is as strong as ever


Is that why 20% of Ukraine is now Russia?

---

Lol. You idiot.

quote:

---

Is that why 20% of Ukraine is now Russia?

---

Wasn't that number much higher, before getting NATO weapons

I agree with the basic message of those Russian accounts: Ukraine is deploying its reserves, so the Ukrainian tempo of advance and the pressure on Russian troops should increase. Could it be enough to force a breakthrough? It looks unlikely, but that's the kind of thing that would look unlikely -- until it happened.

But Serge is wrong in this:

quote:

---

The AFU needs to make their progress towards Tokmak by the end of September.

---

I don't know why Serge thinks the end of September is some magic date. The average first snow in Kherson is November 9th, and it's the snow cover on the ground (but without the ground being cold enough to freeze deeply) that creates the mud season.

In southern Ukraine, the offensive likely has until mid-November before conditions become very difficult for armored vehicles, and the offensive grinds to a halt, while some effects might be likely at the beginning of November.

So, the Ukrainian offensive likely has 75-90 days left to achieve strategic objectives. That's certainly a reasonable time for the new brigades to fight without rotation.

quote:

---

If we’re being honest, the only weapons that made a different are HIMARS, the one or two Patriot systems, stingers, and javelins.

All the expensive af MBT didn’t do shite

---

If we're judging the Ukrainian offensive on the territory retaken, then it hasn't had much success yet.

But that's not the primary objective for the United States. What we want is the destruction of the Russian military, and on that score, Ukraine is making excellent progress.

The two Ka-52s that Ukraine took out today were just another example. Russia is rapidly running low on those.

(no message)

ISW Updates

quote:

---

Key Takeaways:

“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion.

Khodakovsky commands forces defending in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and his comments about freezing the war follow the Ukrainian liberation of Urozhaine on August 16, suggesting that recent Ukrainian advances may be significantly weakening confidence in the Russian defense along the wider front in southern Ukraine.

Recent Ukrainian advances near small settlements in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast are likely tactically significant because of the structure of Russian defensive lines.

Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, resources, and personnel to hold settlements such as Robotyne and Urozhaine, and recent Ukrainian advances in these areas are therefore likely reflective of a wider degradation of defending Russian forces.

Russian efforts to ramp up the domestic production of Iranian Shahed-136/-131 drones indicates that Russia aims to develop the long-term capability to conduct large strike series in Ukraine.

Russian reports about the state of the Chonhar Bridge in occupied Kherson Oblast indicate that Ukrainian strikes disrupted a major Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to Crimea for 11 days.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 17 and advanced in certain areas.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 17 and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

---

quote:

---

I thought this war was about protecting the sacred 1991 borders of Ukraine and muh democracy.

---

You should have paid attention. The US national interest in the war was always about weakening one of our greatest enemies. Most of us on this board understand that Russia represents a strategic military threat, and that this war is an outstanding opportunity to degrade that threat without the cost of the life of a single American military service member.

quote:

---

it's just about fighting Russia to the last Ukrainian

---

You stupid vatnik. Ukraine is asking the US for weapons to fight and destroy Russian military equipment, and we are doing that. It's not about us fighting Russia in any way, nor is the US causing the death of any Ukrainian by giving Ukraine weapons. US military support has actually saved the lives of many thousands of Ukrainians by intercepting the many rockets that your side points at their homes.

Please stay angry that your side can't kill more innocent Ukrainian civilians because of US military support. Cry more, please.

quote:

---

Appears that we have another groundstop at Vnukovo in Moscow after a probable Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow City.

Reports of explosions in Moscow City this morning.

TASS says that a UAV was downed in the city

---

LINK