re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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It’s true that Russia has been and will continue to lose market share in the defense industry and some of that will probably be due to the war and sanctions

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It's definitely accelerating a trend.

I guess we’ll find out next spring

I’m sure the Ukrainians are capable of producing them at a fairly good pace. It’s just always been beaten into me that F-16s have notoriously short legs. And Ukraine is a pretty big country.

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I’m sure the Ukrainians are capable of producing them at a fairly good pace. It’s just always been beaten into me that F-16s have notoriously short legs. And Ukraine is a pretty big country.

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Doug Masters took one of those things from California to Libya.

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Well Doug Masters is an American hero. I doubt the Ukrainians have many baws that learned to fly under the tutelage of Col. Chappy.

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British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 18 August 2023

On 15 August 2023, First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kiriyenko travelled to Donetsk in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine to visit schools and check their integration into the Russian education system.

In Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the occupation administration received instructions from Russia regarding the introduction of new standards for the accreditation of educational institutions. Journalists from Russia are also being employed in media outlets in the occupied regions.

A new textbook on the history of Russia will be issued to schools in the occupied regions of Ukraine and throughout the Russian Federation from 1 September 2023. The book praises the so-called special military operation and describes Ukraine as an ultra-terrorist state.

Russia's aim is to create a pro-Kremlin information space in the occupied regions in order to erode Ukrainian national identity.

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But Serge is wrong in this:
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The AFU needs to make their progress towards Tokmak by the end of September.

I don't know why Serge thinks the end of September is some magic date. The average first snow in Kherson is November 9th, and it's the snow cover on the ground (but without the ground being cold enough to freeze deeply) that creates the mud season.

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It is not the snow that causes the mud season problems. It is the fall rains. Last year the fall rains started in mid-October. Ukraine needs to conquer Tokmak by the end of September because Tokmak is a road junction. If Ukraine conquers Tokmak of advancing down the T0401 towards Meltiopol or along the P37 towards Berdyansk. Also if Ukraine conquers Tokmak then it cuts the road and rail links between Melitopol and Mariuopl and Russia.

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It’s just always been beaten into me that F-16s have notoriously short legs. And Ukraine is a pretty big country.

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From what I have read Mig29s have even shorter legs. Ukraine has managed to keep them flying by using highways as make shift air bases for refueling. If the USA or NATO sends some street sweepers to Ukraine for FOD clearance since F16s don't have FOD screens over their air intakes like Mig29s do then they can keep them flying too.

ETA: Per my sauce(s) in the UAF, the makeshift airbase stuff is the reason why the Ukrainians initially requested Gripens because they are designed to be dispersed and use makeshift airbases and even grass fields to refuel and rearm if necessary. When Sweden said no to Gripens Ukraine requested F18s because the USMC recently retired a lot of them and Australia and Finland have them as well. Finland also has modified theirs to be able to work off of improvised runways and the F18 has a more robust landing gear than the F16. Unfortunately a lack of spare parts for the old F18s doomed that idea. So Ukraine had to settle for F16s.

RwA is my go to source

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What did he say that was even remotely controversial?

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It is beyond comical for RWA to be down playing Ukrainian advances when RWA was acting like the war was almost one every time Russia advanced a block in Bakhmut. RWA still refuses to acknowledge it took Russia almost a year to take Bahkmut and that Ukraine is in the process of encircling Bahkmut. Also everytime RWA has downplayed something it has turned out to be a big deal for Ukraine. The Russian withdraw aka retreat from Kyiv, the Kharkiv oblast offensive last fall, and the fall of Kherson last fall are just a few examples of things RWA downplayed but turned out to be big deals. By citing RWA it is obvious that you do not know the significance of the advances or are a mindless idiot who eats up Russian propaganda like it was ice cream.

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Robotyne is a tiny village, Ukraine has been trying to take it for two months, it's flat and the structures provide little to no cover at this point. All of these are known facts at this point.

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The size of the village is not what makes it important. The fact that conquering Robotyne means Ukraine have made a 2nd or possible 3rd gap in the minefields which make up the Russian 1st line of defenses. Robotyne is also key because it is one of the few places where a highway goes through the Russian defenses. Highways will be important for keeping supply lines open during the upcoming mud season.

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Every time Ukraine gets near the northern part of the village they get destroyed by artillery. Twice again today

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Which means they are approaching the 2nd line of Russian defenses. The second line of Russian defenses is mostly made up of their artillery. However once Ukraine secures Robotyne the Russian artillery will be within tube artillery range of Ukrainian artillery. Ukraine will be able to deploy fire finding radar (FFR) and commencing clearing out the Russian and breaking through the second line of Russian defenses. There are a lot less mines once Ukraine gets pass Robotyne. When Ukrainian tube artillery and FFR are able to engaged Russian artillery then Ukrainian sappers can clear the few minefields much easier and quicker.