re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

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There are several factors that may be contributing to the lack of Russian ability to achieve and exploit air superiority, in spite of their huge advantages in aircraft numbers, equipment capability and enablers such as AWACS compared to the UkrAF. The first is the limited quantities of air-delivered precision-guided munitions (PGMs) available to most VKS fighter units. During combat operations over Syria, only the Su-34 fleet has regularly made use of PGMs, and even these specialist strike aircraft have regularly resorted to unguided bomb and rocket attacks. This not only indicates a very limited familiarity with PGMs among most Russian fighter crews, but also reinforces the widely accepted theory that the Russian air-delivered PGM stockpile is very limited. Years of combat operations in Syria will have further depleted that stockpile, and may mean that the bulk of the 300 VKS fixed wing combat aircraft massed around Ukraine have only unguided bombs and rockets to draw on for ground-attack sorties. This, combined with the lack of targeting pods to spot and identify battlefield targets from a safe distance, means that the VKS fixed wing pilots’ capacity to provide close air support for their forces is limited. As a result, the VKS leadership may be reluctant to commit the bulk of their potential striking power against Ukrainian troops before political approval is granted to employ unguided munitions to bombard Ukrainian-held urban areas. This indiscriminate form of air attack was standard practice for Russian and Syrian Air Force operations over Aleppo and Homs, and unfortunately is likely to be employed by the VKS over Ukraine in the coming days.

Lack of PGMs, however, is not a sufficient explanation for the overall lack of VKS fixed wing activity. The relatively modern avionics on most of their strike platforms mean that even unguided bombs and rockets should still have been sufficient to inflict major damage on Ukrainian aircraft in their airbases. The VKS also have around 80 modern and capable Su-35S air superiority and 110 multirole Su-30SM(2) fighters, which could conduct OCA and DCA sweeps. The inability to establish air superiority, therefore, cannot be purely explained by a lack of suitable PGMs.

Another potential explanation is that the VKS are not confident in their capacity to safely deconflict large-scale sorties with the activity of Russian ground-based SAMs operated by the Ground Forces. Friendly-fire incidents by ground-based SAM units have been a problem for Western and Russian air forces alike in multiple conflicts since 1990. Running joint engagement zones in which combat aircraft and SAM systems can engage enemy forces simultaneously in a complex environment without friendly-fire incidents is hard; it requires close inter-service cooperation, excellent communications and regular training to master. So far, Russian forces have shown extremely poor coordination across the board, from basic logistics tasks, to coordination of airborne assaults with ground forces activity and arranging air defence cover for columns on the move. In this context, it might be the case that the decision was made to leave the task of denying the UkrAF the ability to operate to the ground-based SAM systems, with the explicit understanding that this would be instead of large-scale VKS air operations. However, once again, this is not a sufficient explanation in itself, since given the limited fighter and SAM assets available to Ukrainian forces at this stage, the VKS could still have conducted large-scale sorties against key targets at pre-arranged times, during which Russian SAMs could be instructed to hold their fire.

A final factor to consider is the relatively low number of flying hours that VKS pilots receive each year relative to most of their Western counterparts. While accurate numbers across each unit are hard to find, periodic Russian official statements suggest an average of 100–120 hours per year across the VKS as a whole. Fighter unit flying hours are likely to be lower than those for transport or helicopter units, so the real figure is probably a little under 100. RAF and US Air Force fighter pilots often complain that they struggle to maintain multirole combat readiness with around 180–240 flying hours a year, access to modern high-fidelity simulators for additional training, and better cockpit ergonomics and weapon interfaces than their Russian counterparts. Therefore, it may be that despite an impressive modernisation programme that has seen the acquisition of around 350 new modern combat aircraft over the past decade, VKS pilots would struggle to effectively employ many of the theoretical capabilities of their aircraft in the complex and contested air environment of Ukraine. If this is the case, then the VKS leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities.

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Ol' baw with the cigarette hanging out of his mouth as he's carrying a mine in his hands should be a 1st ballot OT Hall of Famer.

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I saw this video and have to admit that I would have tripped at some point.

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Ukraine's Embassy in Japan says it is receiving a number of inquiries from Japanese nationals

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Russia should be scared now.

Here's a bit of interesting info on the Polish planes:

@lookner

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Ukraine Armed Forces says that if necessary, the planes they're getting from other NATO countries "will be able to be based on Polish airfields from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions" LINK

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So, of this is accurate, the Ukranians will be running missions out of Poland.

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Ukraine's Embassy in Japan says it is receiving a number of inquiries from Japanese nationals wanting to fight as volunteers in the country.

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Bad sign:

Russia pulling ALL of it's diplomats out of Canada. Full diplomatic withdraw from other western nations will also likely take place.

Canada? Hell I thought Trudea was on their side.

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Russia pulling ALL of it's diplomats out of Canada.

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Best Theories on Why:

1.) Canadians really pissed them off when they started the trend of pouring vodka out.

2.) Russia got mad when Canada shut their airspace and then complained and started an investigation when Russians crossed into Canadian Airspace.

3.)40 mile convoy? Russia heard that Canadian Truckers were going to fill the Red Square.

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The Mysterious Case of the Missing Russian Air Force

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What if US technology took out all of their flight instruments and/or disabled a good portion of their planes.

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Here's a bit of interesting info on the Polish planes:

@lookner
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Ukraine Armed Forces says that if necessary, the planes they're getting from other NATO countries "will be able to be based on Polish airfields from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions" LINK


So, of this is accurate, the Ukranians will be running missions out of Poland.

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This is a significant escalation and triggers a broader concern that this could spread beyond the Ukraine.