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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/12/23 at 7:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 5/12/23 at 7:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
They already have the majority figured out I would think. They wouldn’t announce Storm Shadows without knowing that they had a platform that could work with it. There might be a few adjustments made but that will be after they are used and the results can be analyzed so the first couple will be more or less an experiment. These things are massive though and can really frick a lot shite up but most of all they are expensive at about $3 million US dollars a piece. When they go I would think they would be with fighter cover from Mig-29s firing HARMs to go for active radar signatures and they will also launch the dummy missiles with it to confuse and overrun Russian anti air defenses. These have the potential to be complete game changers much like the HIMARS did last summer. There is nowhere in Ukraine that is out of range besides southern Crimea. We are about to see how good Ukrainian intelligence is because they can decapitate Russian command if they find their locations.
0
Posted on 5/12/23 at 7:48 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
I wonder what the Russian equivalent of stay frosty is.
This post was edited on 5/12/23 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 5/12/23 at 8:10 pm to OutsideObserver
Twitter LINK
This guy has some of the best copium that I have read since "kissing the icon." I had to cut out some of it, because it's so long. He has another whole section of cope on the pretended strike at the end of March that supposedly killed 300 NATO officers.
This guy has some of the best copium that I have read since "kissing the icon." I had to cut out some of it, because it's so long. He has another whole section of cope on the pretended strike at the end of March that supposedly killed 300 NATO officers.
quote:
Let’s start with the obvious — Chef Prigozhin. Three days ago he was in full meltdown and vowed to take his boys and abandon the fight in Bakhmut to the Akhmat Battalion ... I remain convinced that Prigozhin was doing a mega troll routine to distract the West from Russia’s true intentions.
In the aftermath of Prigozhin’s public rant, the Russian military has carried out three days of intense bombing, artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian warehouses filled with Western military equipment and ammunition and on troop assembly areas. Russia is not giving Ukraine any breathing room to gather its forces for a long promised counter offensive.
In the aftermath of Prigozhin’s public rant, the Russian military has carried out three days of intense bombing, artillery and missile strikes on Ukrainian warehouses filled with Western military equipment and ammunition and on troop assembly areas. Russia is not giving Ukraine any breathing room to gather its forces for a long promised counter offensive.
...
We now are being enticed to believe that Ukraine, with a numerically inferior force compared to Russia’s current troop deployment, is going to mount an offensive, despite a severe lack of tanks, armored vehicles, mobile artillery and air cover, that will drive the Russians from fortifications erected during the last six months.
quote:
When the history of this Special Military Operation/War is written, the first week of May 2023 will mark a watershed moment when Russia massively employed its fixed wing air capability in launching bombing raids on Ukrainian positions throughout Ukraine. But we are still not getting a comprehensive report or assessment from either side about the success (or failure) of these glide bombs.
The Russian Ministry of Defense is the only one providing a “detailed” daily brief on military operations carried out during the preceding 24 hours. But even these briefings are deceptive ...The Russian General staff’s picture of the overall battlefield is deliberately opaque; not because they are losing but because they are playing their cards close to their vest. The Russians continue to employ Maskirovka, or "play dumb being smart" but have adapted it to the world of comprehensive ISR.
If you watch RT television you would hardly know there is a war going on. Reports from the front lines are scarce. When RT correspondents do file stories they generally are designed to promote a particular narrative. If you compare the coverage of the battle for Mariupol in May 2022 with the battle of Bakhmut, the reporting on Mariupol was quite extensive in comparison to the news out of Bakhmut. It is only in the last couple of weeks that reports from inside Bakhmut have ticked up. I think that it one of the most telling indicators that the battle is in the end stage for Ukraine.
Posted on 5/12/23 at 8:26 pm to OutsideObserver
Isw update
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12.
Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” held a press conference on May 12 to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilization efforts.
Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 5/12/23 at 8:28 pm to GOP_Tiger
That’s Big Serge level copium
Posted on 5/12/23 at 8:38 pm to GOP_Tiger
Same sort of crap Col Douglas MacGregor (retired) has been saying since Feb 2022. Always, every single time, wrong
Posted on 5/12/23 at 8:45 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
That’s Big Serge level copium
Serge at least is articulate and forms coherent arguments that have some basis in fact, albeit distorted by his own viewpoint. I am still waiting for his phase 1 to end so the "highly likely" phase 2 can eventuate where Russia takes the remainder of the Donbass and move on to central Ukraine.
That twitter account is a grab bag of conspiracy theories and tenuous claims about the world order that the author couches as "facts" because they typed the word in the heading.
Posted on 5/12/23 at 9:03 pm to OutsideObserver
Serge is a solid writer and his posts on WW2 are pretty good.
Posted on 5/12/23 at 9:51 pm to Chromdome35
LINK
Gen. Zaluzhnyi rarely gives interviews. This is a new one for a Ukrainian TV documentary (English subtitles), and I think it gives a good view of him as a commander and as a man.
Zaluzhnyi talks about the friends he's lost whose contacts he can't bear to delete from his phone. He talks about a little boy telling him that he asked Santa to go back to his home in Mariupol. There's a bit of standard, expected questions and answers, of course, but I thought it was very revealing overall.
Gen. Zaluzhnyi rarely gives interviews. This is a new one for a Ukrainian TV documentary (English subtitles), and I think it gives a good view of him as a commander and as a man.
Zaluzhnyi talks about the friends he's lost whose contacts he can't bear to delete from his phone. He talks about a little boy telling him that he asked Santa to go back to his home in Mariupol. There's a bit of standard, expected questions and answers, of course, but I thought it was very revealing overall.
Posted on 5/12/23 at 11:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
He seems like the right guy to be in charge for Ukraine. It’s well known Ukraine’s senior officer command is split with some of the older guys still believing in the Soviet/Russian doctrine of warfare and some of the younger senior commanders believing in western doctrine. Zaluzhnyi is one of those guys that is 100% converted to western military doctrine and he has made large scale changes in the structure of Ukraine’s military to be a western type fighting force. More than all that in the very few interviews I have seen him speak it is very evident that he comes across as a very level headed guy that is comfortable with the heavy weight of his command and the high stakes that come with it. Meanwhile does anyone really know who the frick is really in command on the Russian side? Good lord they fight and bicker with each other more than they concentrate on the actual war. Russia is a dumpster fire and if this counter offensive makes a large breakthrough somewhere you’re going to see the Russian high command doing a lot of finger pointing and possibly a few unfortunate high rise window accidents.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 1:20 am to LSUPilot07
Oh so I get it, the Russians are only appearing to get their arse kicked as part of some great deception and really this war is already over in their favor. (Seriously, drugs are a mind killer)
Russia is and has always been even when it was the USSR a third world country with some decent oil reserves and nukes. The military industrial complex created this great Russian bear opposition so they could justify us spending 10x what the rest of the world spends on our military. It’s is and has always been bullshite
Russia is and has always been even when it was the USSR a third world country with some decent oil reserves and nukes. The military industrial complex created this great Russian bear opposition so they could justify us spending 10x what the rest of the world spends on our military. It’s is and has always been bullshite
Posted on 5/13/23 at 2:01 am to LSUPilot07
I believe it is Putin. But given he'd rather not end up like the Romanovs', I will guess he will put anyone in the line of succession at the Russian MoD in the firing line for the Russian people to blame. Leaving him standing again ( albeit very weakened should Russia lose).
Looks like Germany is about to announce a new package Sunday. I can't find any non-German paywall article but from the Reddit comments it sounds like 30 new Leopard 1 's, 20 Marders will be given as well as other equipment/missiles.
Looks like Germany is about to announce a new package Sunday. I can't find any non-German paywall article but from the Reddit comments it sounds like 30 new Leopard 1 's, 20 Marders will be given as well as other equipment/missiles.
This post was edited on 5/13/23 at 2:10 am
Posted on 5/13/23 at 2:39 am to jefffan
There appear to have been further strikes in Luhansk, specifically Yuvileine. Defmon goes into some detail about how it has been used as a military hub and storage facility so far through the war.
Twitter - @Defmon3
Russia has scored a good strike here though by the looks of it.
Twitter - @sentdefender -Combined video/static image media
Edit: Missing location
Twitter - @Defmon3
quote:
This is Yuvileine just outside Luhansk.
POV from : 48.557504, 39.18274
Source: LINK
@GeoConfirmed
Russia has scored a good strike here though by the looks of it.
quote:
At least 10 Explosions have been heard in and around the City of Khmelnytskyi in Western Ukraine as it’s reported Russian Shahed-136 “Kamikaze” Drones have Struck multiple Critical-Infrastructure Sites causing Severe Damage, Massive Fires, and Debris to Rain across the City.
Twitter - @sentdefender -Combined video/static image media
Edit: Missing location
This post was edited on 5/13/23 at 2:45 am
Posted on 5/13/23 at 2:50 am to jefffan
quote:
Looks like Germany is about to announce a new package Sunday. I can't find any non-German paywall article but from the Reddit comments it sounds like 30 new Leopard 1 's, 20 Marders will be given as well as other equipment/missiles.
NoelReports on Twitter is claiming the below list is the new package coming from Germany. I couldn't verify as the article he cites is behind a paywall. If true it is a fairly significant contribution.
quote:
According to SPIEGEL, Germany will significantly expand its support for Ukraine with the largest arms delivery since the beginning of the war. It includes 20 Marder BMPs, 30 Leopard 1 tanks, 18 wheeled howitzers, 4 IRIS-T-SLM systems and hundreds of guided missiles for the IRIS-T-SLM.
The full list worth €2.7 billion.
4 IRIS-T SLM systems
20 Marder IFVs
30 Leopard 1A5
18 RCH 155 Howitzers
15 Gepard systems
200+ armored (support) vehicles
Additional shells and ammunition
Additional surveillance drones
Twitter - @NOELreports
Edit: Deleted invalid characters
This post was edited on 5/13/23 at 2:52 am
Posted on 5/13/23 at 3:02 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Serge is a solid writer and his posts on WW2 are pretty good.
Agreed, I enjoy reading his perspectives on the war even if I don't agree with them he does go further at fleshing his theories out rather than relying on sound bites and talking points - though he has been reaching a bit in some of his latest articles.
His pieces on WW2 are far better and generally objective. I find he has a very good grasp of late 19th and early 20th century grand strategy but I think the nuances of modern combined arms warfare elude him.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 4:49 am to OutsideObserver
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 May 2023
Over the last four days, elements of Russia's 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (72 SMRB) likely withdrew in bad order from their positions on the southern flank of the Bakhmut operation. Ukrainian forces regained at least a kilometre of territory.
The area has some tactical significance because it was a Russian bridgehead on the western side of the
Donets-Donbas Canal, which marks the front line through parts of the sector.
72 SMRB is an element of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, a formation created in Autumn 2023 and dogged with allegations of poor morale and limited combat effectiveness. Its deployment to such a demanding and operationally important sector highlights Russia's severe shortage of credible combat units.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 May 2023
Over the last four days, elements of Russia's 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade (72 SMRB) likely withdrew in bad order from their positions on the southern flank of the Bakhmut operation. Ukrainian forces regained at least a kilometre of territory.
The area has some tactical significance because it was a Russian bridgehead on the western side of the
Donets-Donbas Canal, which marks the front line through parts of the sector.
72 SMRB is an element of Russia's 3rd Army Corps, a formation created in Autumn 2023 and dogged with allegations of poor morale and limited combat effectiveness. Its deployment to such a demanding and operationally important sector highlights Russia's severe shortage of credible combat units.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 6:12 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
It’s well known Ukraine’s senior officer command is split with some of the older guys still believing in the Soviet/Russian doctrine of warfare and some of the younger senior commanders believing in western doctrine. Zaluzhnyi is one of those guys that is 100% converted to western military doctrine and he has made large scale changes in the structure of Ukraine’s military to be a western type fighting force.
In the interview, he talks about the importance of the Ukrainian military continuing to remove old Soviet influences and practices. He emphasizes the difficulty of making structural changes in the middle of a war, but he says that efforts to improve the military for the long-term can't be ignored.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 6:27 am to TutHillTiger
quote:
Oh so I get it, the Russians are only appearing to get their arse kicked as part of some great deception and really this war is already over in their favor.
Kyiv was just a feint
Posted on 5/13/23 at 6:53 am to StormyMcMan
This is potentially big, and very timely, news .
Euronews.com (German language) - Switzerland gives greenlight for armaments deliveries to Ukraine
Euronews.com (German language) - Switzerland gives greenlight for armaments deliveries to Ukraine
quote:
The War Materials Act had previously prohibited the transfer of weapons and ammunition from Switzerland by third countries.
Ammunition has been getting less and less in Ukraine for months. EU countries want to deliver, but see their own stocks increasingly dwindling. In addition, some weapons and ammunition that were acquired in Switzerland years ago have not yet been delivered to Ukraine.
That should change now. The two chambers of the Swiss Parliament, the National Council and the City Council, have changed the War Materials Act voted. This will enable war material to be passed on to Ukraine in the future.
So far, weapons and ammunition acquired from abroad have not been allowed to be passed on to countries in armed conflict.
Due to the legal situation, Switzerland, among other things, refused to authorize Germany to supply ammunition for the German Gepard tank.
Posted on 5/13/23 at 6:55 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
How do you lose an Mi-8 and Su-34 within minutes of each other. On top of an Mi-28 yesterday.
All without any hostile action.
At this rate Russia will take out its own airforce in a month due to counterattack / Storm Shadow panic.
Videos in link, clearly anti aircraft fire. Appears to be friendly fire
LINK
quote:
Russian media reports that special services in the Bryansk region are looking for saboteurs who may have been involved in the attack on the Mi-8 and Su-34. An "interception plan" was introduced in the region.
The Russian air defense is the best saboteurs ??
The video shows the moment of the fall of the Russian Su-34.
LINK
quote:
The Russians claim that the building of the former Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which was used to house the Russian military and militants of the "LPR", was hit in the village of Yubileiny near Luhansk.
In addition, Luhansk militants said that the strike was carried out by British Storm Shadow missiles.
LINK
quote:
Neutral for more than 200 years, Switzerland is giving the green light to re-export its weapons to Ukraine.
The Swiss parliament voted for amendments to the law that would allow Swiss-made weapons to be transferred to Ukraine. The final decision will be made in a referendum.
LINK
quote:
Special services are checking information about another plane that crashed in the Starodub district of the Bryansk region of the russian federation.
It is probably about another Su-34, — russian mass media.
LINK
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