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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Everyone apparently agrees that a bunch of rockets blew up. Ukraine says that they were very old rockets from a system no longer used, while Russia claims that they were for S-300 systems.
Obviously Ukraine won’t admit it if it was true. But Russia would need some form of intent to know something was there to hit. I would imagine it was satellite intel and I would imagine with their resolution it could have been any large rocket system.
0
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:01 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Apparently, there is a old chemical plant there that made rocket fuel.
All of the Soviet SS-24's were made in Ukraine. 46 were denuked with the nuclear warheads sent to Russia for processing.
This post was edited on 4/30/23 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:05 pm to GOP_Tiger
There are reports across multiple twitter accounts that 10+ Tu-95s have sent up over the last several hours so there could be a bit of a rough night for Ukraine with warnings across southern Ukraine regarding missiles and UAVs. I do wonder if this is Russia testing the veracity that Ukraine's air defences are severely degraded as per the leaked reports.
Twitter - @warmonitors
Twitter - @NOELreports
Twitter - @sentdefender
Also claims up to 4 missile carrying naval vessels were deployed to the Black Sea in the last hour or so.
Twitter - @warMonitors
In regards to the strike in Pavlohrad
Twitter - @sentdefender
Also this off Scotland but looks to be routine poke and run
Uk Defence Journal.org.uk Jets scambled to intercept aircraft off Scottish coast.
Edit: Clarity
Twitter - @warmonitors
quote:
??More than 10 Tu-95s are now airborne near Ukraine, strike likely in the coming hours.
Twitter - @NOELreports
quote:
There is a missile and UAV threat in the southern regions. Be aware of air raid alarms.
Twitter - @sentdefender
quote:
At least 9 Russian Tu-95M Strategic Bombers are currently Airborne from Olenya Air Base in Northwestern Russia heading South; the possibility of another Missile Attack against Targets in Ukraine is Increasing.
quote:
16 Tu-95Ms are now Airborne from several Air Bases across Western Russia.
Also claims up to 4 missile carrying naval vessels were deployed to the Black Sea in the last hour or so.
Twitter - @warMonitors
In regards to the strike in Pavlohrad
Twitter - @sentdefender
quote:
Russian Sources are claiming that the Explosions at the Rail Yard near the City of Pavlohrad were the result of a Missile Strike against 2 Divisions of up to 16 S-300 Launchers including Ammunition that was heading towards the Front; so far there is No Visual Evidence of this.
Also this off Scotland but looks to be routine poke and run
Uk Defence Journal.org.uk Jets scambled to intercept aircraft off Scottish coast.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 4/30/23 at 5:28 pm
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:32 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
up to 16 S-300 Launchers including Ammunition that was heading towards the Front
LOL. Ukraine doesn't have many S-300 launchers left. The idea that 16 of them were going to the front all bunched together? No way.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:38 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:I guess fricking around with Russian Crimea is bringing on a found out tonight.
16 Tu-95Ms are now Airborne from several Air Bases across Western Russia.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 5:41 pm to OutsideObserver
Ukrainian command now has a very tough choice to make. The Russians are clearly trying to not only seek out Ukrainian air defenses but deplete their missiles in the process. This could be a daily occurrence now with Russia sending aircraft up to launch missiles and bombs at Ukrainian civilians. You’re left with 3 hard choices as I see it. You can either engage these attacks and repel them with your AA defense as much as you possibly can but then you are depleting an already scarce resource for the Ukes. You can push up the timeline and start the offensive earlier than you had planned but you’d have more AA ammo to defend against air attacks during the offensive. The last choice is the hardest one. You could intentionally hold back firing at maximum effort which means you conserve your valuable ammunition but in the process you let more Russian strikes hit their targets. None are great options I guess it’s about taking the least shitty one.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:12 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But the difference is that, unlike ATACMS, Storm Shadow is still in production. So, if Ukraine can fire it from its SU jets, then why isn't Britain just giving some to Ukraine and then buying more of them to replace the ones it's sending? Why put out a procurement request for other rockets with that kind of range?
That's why I wonder if there's a technical issue that prevents Ukraine from being able to use them.
I think I was thinking about this all wrong. Maybe the UK IS going to buy more Storm Shadow missiles for Ukraine? Maybe, for legal reasons, they have to set up a open bidding process, and then it "turns out" that Storm Shadow is the best choice (and maybe the only bid).
Thinking about this some more, the possibility of ground-based launchers is also not far-fetched. Storm Shadow is identical to the French SCALP missile, and the manufacturer makes a variant of it for France that has a booster rocket so that the French can fire it from their frigates and submarines. So, if a launcher can be put on a ship, I'll bet it can be put on a truck.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:14 pm to MasterDigger
Russia already discovered FAFO Feb 24th, 2022
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:18 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Very interesting Twitter thread by @Tatarigami_UA, who is a Ukrainian officer (last known to be serving in the Vuhledar area). This is the first time that I have read what I would call a serious argument that the area around Donetsk could actually be a good area for Ukraine to focus on in its upcoming offensive.
Came here to post the below but wanted to catch up to make sure it hadn’t already been posted. Fits with your post.
Thomas Theiner thread
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:19 pm to GOP_Tiger
Oh, and thinking about this some more, I don't think that the UK is going to restrict Ukraine from only using Storm Shadow inside its international borders.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
Ukraine is about to get lit up, tonight. Tons of Russian bombers in the air.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:42 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Ukraine is about to get lit up, tonight. Tons of Russian bombers in the air.
Maybe. Maybe they'll drop a couple of bombs on Belgorad, like they did last time.
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:44 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Ukraine is about to get lit up, tonight. Tons of Russian bombers in the air.
I'm seeing reports 3 Tu-160s just took off also, on top of the 15-20 Tu-95s. Seems like we should've seen more strikes by now though
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:46 pm to FlintEastwood
Looks like it will be soon
Ukrainian monitoring groups: “Radio transmissions to initiate Russian missile launches have been sent. We are waiting for air raid alerts”
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1652820595699077121?s=46&t=YaYU1zEPWIqWvXMlD6gSDQ
Ukrainian monitoring groups: “Radio transmissions to initiate Russian missile launches have been sent. We are waiting for air raid alerts”
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1652820595699077121?s=46&t=YaYU1zEPWIqWvXMlD6gSDQ
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:51 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Ukraine is about to get lit up, tonight. Tons of Russian bombers in the air.
Interesting thing I read a while back. The assembly lines for the Russian strategic bombers were shut down years ago and the machinery sold off. Each flight hastens the end of the useful life of these planes,moreso since they had to be moved back several thousand km because of drone attacks. When they're no longer airworthy they can't be replaced
Posted on 4/30/23 at 6:55 pm to TacoNash
Preliminary reports of Russian missile launches from the Caspian Sea. If true, the missiles will reach Ukraine in 40-50 minutes.
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1652823205294252032?s=46&t=YaYU1zEPWIqWvXMlD6gSDQ
https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1652823205294252032?s=46&t=YaYU1zEPWIqWvXMlD6gSDQ
Posted on 4/30/23 at 7:02 pm to TacoNash
Update to previous comment: Missiles launches all but confirmed from the Caspian sea. Air raid sirens will start sounding in the next 30 minutes or so
The Head of Ukraine’s presidential office says “do not ignore the air raid alerts”
The Head of Ukraine’s presidential office says “do not ignore the air raid alerts”
Posted on 4/30/23 at 7:07 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
How many of these attacks have impacted anything on the battlefield?
Posted on 4/30/23 at 7:11 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
these attacks
Isn't that the point of war?
Posted on 4/30/23 at 7:13 pm to ticklechain
Reports of 100 missiles on the way to Ukraine along with bombers.
This post was edited on 4/30/23 at 7:17 pm
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