re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I thought the potentially entrapped guys posted the docs that the "CIA" tried to leak-bait them with.

This scenario would've been more believable if the discord docs were dumped all at once, not meted out over a prolonged stretch of time.

Prayers to their families. That kid is too young for this shite

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The 4chan post basically says there was a federal agent (CIA) who was trying to entrap 2 guys somewhere in the bowels of the internet.

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99.99999999% chance it is BS

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We know the responsible person(s) had access to these documents and we know it is taking the investigators quite a long time to track him / them down. The longer the investigation takes to resolve, the higher the likelihood that it is either an elaborate hoax or the perpetrator's identification is being hidden.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 13 April 2023

Leaders of several Russian regions bordering Ukraine, as well as occupied Crimea, have announced that their usually
high-profile 9 May Victory Day military parades will be cancelled.

Some Russian cities further away from Ukraine have confirmed they plan to go ahead with Victory Day. The cancelled events have likely primarily been called off because of security concerns near the border, as officials have claimed.

However, the different approaches highlight a sensitive communications challenge for the Kremlin. Putin couches the 'special military operation' in the spirit of the Soviet experience in World War Two. The message risks sitting increasingly uneasily with the many Russians who have immediate insights into the mismanaged and failing campaign in Ukraine. Honouring the fallen of previous generations could easily blur into exposing the scope of the recent losses, which the Kremlin attempts to cover up.

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The young member was impressed by OG’s seemingly prophetic ability to forecast major events before they became headline news

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Following a plan is now prophesizing?

There is a lot going on right now that was planned some time ago.

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The man behind a massive leak of U.S. government secrets that has exposed spying on allies, revealed the grim prospects for Ukraine’s war with Russia and ignited diplomatic fires for the White House is a young, charismatic gun enthusiast who shared highly classified documents with a group of far-flung acquaintances searching for companionship amid the isolation of the pandemic.

United by their mutual love of guns, military gear and God, the group of roughly two dozen — mostly men and boys — formed an invitation-only clubhouse in 2020 on Discord, an online platform popular with gamers. But they paid little attention last year when the man some call “OG” posted a message laden with strange acronyms and jargon. The words were unfamiliar, and few people read the long note, one of the members explained. But he revered OG, the elder leader of their tiny tribe, who claimed to know secrets that the government withheld from ordinary people

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I don’t know whether to call bullshite because this reeks of orange man bad and right wing gun loving conspiracy nut or believe it given the way many republicans view the war and the possibility this is someone of the same cloth’s way of trying to sabotage the effort.

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Both members said they know OG’s real name as well as the state where he lives and works but declined to share that information while the FBI is hunting for the source of the leaks. The investigation is in its early stages, and the Pentagon has set up its own internal review led by a senior official.

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So they went through all of the trouble and risk to give the FBI everything BUT the guys name? People smarter than me, with the accurate discord and poster ID can the FBI not trace this through IPs? I guess this person was probably smart enough to have a good VPN, I just don’t know if people at the skill level the FBI or NSA probably have can get to the source.

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He was by his own account enthralled with OG, who he said was in his early to mid-20s.

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Military baws, is it normal for someone mid-20s to achieve a position with the level of clearance it would require to see the level of information that has been leaked?

I think this also, IF true, highlights our recruiting challenges of present and future. The younger generations of recruiting age now have the need to post everything (on the left and right) and potentially have ulterior motives to our foreign & domestic policy with much more willingness to think they can save the day from it with their view than past generations who prioritized patriotism and country over their personal view.

Scary tidbit, which I hope is not true, in the British paper The Times:

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Among the leaks circulating online was a list of names, which could not be authenticated, purporting to be of CIA intelligence operatives working in Ukraine.

Ingram cast doubt on the legitimacy of the list as information about such assets would be subject to much higher classification levels than the other leaked material. However, he said it was a “very dangerous” move whether accurate or not. If the list referred to real individuals, it placed them at risk by simply alleging they were working for US intelligence, he added.

He also warned there was a great deal of disinformation being circulated online concerning the leaks.

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LINK

NY Times sees a bunch more docs on Russian infighting:

LINK

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The new batch, which contains 27 pages, reinforces how deeply American spy agencies have penetrated nearly every aspect of the Russian intelligence apparatus and military command structure. It also shows that the breach of American intelligence agencies could contain far more material than previously understood.

In one document, American intelligence officials say that Russia’s main domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, or F.S.B., has “accused” the country’s Defense Ministry “of obfuscating Russian casualties in Ukraine.” The finding highlights “the continuing reluctance of military officials to convey bad news up the chain of command,” they say.

The entry, dated Feb. 28 in a document with a series of updates about the war in Ukraine and other global hot spots, appears to be based on electronic intercepts collected by American intelligence agencies.

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F.S.B. officials, the document says, contend that the ministry’s toll did not include the dead and wounded among the Russian National Guard, the Wagner mercenary force or fighters fielded by Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya. The sundry fighting forces that the Kremlin has deployed in Ukraine have sometimes acted at cross purposes, further complicating Russia’s military effort.
The F.S.B. “calculated the actual number of Russians wounded and killed in action was closer to 110,000,” the document says.

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So, the FSB doesn't even know Russian casualty numbers, because they MoD lies to them. Hilarious.


Oh, this is fun:

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The new documents also provide fresh details about a very public dispute in February in which Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the business mogul who runs the Wagner force, accused Russian military officials of withholding urgently needed ammunition from his fighters. Mr. Putin attempted to resolve the dispute personally by calling Mr. Prigozhin and Mr. Shoigu into a meeting believed to have taken place on Feb. 22, one document reports.

“The meeting almost certainly concerned, at least in part, Prigozhin’s public accusations and resulting tension with Shoygu,” the document says, using an alternative transliteration of the minister’s name.
The new documents were shared in photos, and some are missing pages. Those shown in full include material from the National Security Agency, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Pentagon’s Joint Staff intelligence directorate.

The material provided to The New York Times was posted on one of the Discord servers where the first set of Pentagon intelligence documents eventually appeared. U.S. officials have said those documents were authentic but cautioned that some had been altered. The documents may also contain outdated or inaccurate information.

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Never underestimate the autist's abilities on the internet. I read on the chans a couple weeks ago that it was an argument between Russian and Ukrainian supporters about how the war was going. Said guy posted these docs to prove his case. Fwiw. Probably not much