re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Anthony Blinken “ I press Saudis on LGBTQI issues ‘in every conversation’”

It’s not the only part of our foreign policy but it does appear the be a priority. That bitch press secretary repeatedly says the promotion of the alphabet people is one of Bidens foreign policy priorities too.

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It's about money, not LGBT or any Culture War stuff.

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Egypt has been getting a billion dollars every year in foreign aid for the last decade second only to Israel. What exactly has changed so much that they would start pivoting away from the US sphere of influence? Not to mention how we press their government on their treatment of the opposition. How soon do we forget that Sisi came to power because of the Muslim fricking brotherhood, maybe it’s a good idea they have a leader who can strong arm the islamists into submission?

Gays aren’t everything but they are a big part of why these countries are pivoting away from us towards the Chinese and Russians.

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Egypt has been getting a billion dollars every year in foreign aid for the last decade second only to Israel. What exactly has changed so much that they would start pivoting away from the US sphere of influence? Not to mention how we press their government on their treatment of the opposition. How soon do we forget that Sisi came to power because of the Muslim fricking brotherhood, maybe it’s a good idea they have a leader who can strong arm the islamists into submission?

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Because strong-arming Islamists only works for so long? Egypt is in a particularly dangerous situation as they need to add around 700k jobs per year to deal with their growing population, and they have the potential for a massive war with Ethiopia in the case that the Ethiopians decided to dam the Nile.

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Well, the context of Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is more a statement about their relative instability, as each authoritarian country cannot deal with direct foreign rivals at the moment, which is a far contrast from when both were directly or indirectly causing havoc in Syria. The Saudi throne is always contested, and Iran has had consistent protests against the state for the first time since 2009. Given that the Saudis are attempting minor liberalization means that their political situation is more precarious, especially if hardliners gain a champion inside the Royal Court.

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But how will their reorientation towards China, who’s far more accepting of the authoritarian behavior these countries have used in the past to suppress these issues, boost their internal stability/control vs being as reliant on US money with strings?

In addition, the Chinese brokered peace (if it does come to fruition) between the Saudis and Iranians and Syrias pending re-joining of the Arab league allows them to much more focus their foreign policies towards Israel vs being divided amongst themselves and hating Israel.

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But how will their reorientation towards China, who’s far more accepting of the authoritarian behavior these countries have used in the past to suppress these issues, boost their internal stability/control vs being as reliant on US money with strings?

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Well, it's ultimately posturing with respect to the US, which aims at mitigating some of those strings.

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In addition, the Chinese brokered peace (if it does come to fruition) between the Saudis and Iranians and Syrias pending re-joining of the Arab league allows them to much more focus their foreign policies towards Israel vs being divided amongst themselves and hating Israel.

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Well Israel is the ultimate trump card that all Arab countries can play. Supporting the Palestinian cause is generally a very popular viewpoint among the populations of those countries, and is easy points in terms of developing some stability if need be, but it comes with its own risks.

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“Instead of building strategic autonomy from the United States, I propose a strategic partnership with the United States,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said Tuesday before flying off to the U.S., of all places, for a three-day visit.

Privately, diplomats were even franker.

“We cannot understand [Macron’s] position on transatlantic relations during these very challenging times,” said one diplomat from an Eastern European country, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely express themselves. “We, as the EU, should be united. Unfortunately, this visit and French remarks following it are not helpful.”

The reactions reflect the long-simmering divisions within Europe over how to best defend itself. Macron has long argued for Europe to become more autonomous economically and militarily — a push many in Central and Eastern Europe fear could alienate a valuable U.S. helping keep Russia at bay, even if they support boosting the EU’s ability to act independently.

“In the current world of geopolitical shifts, and especially in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, it is obvious that democracies have to work closer together than ever before,” said another senior diplomat from Eastern Europe. “We should be all reminded of the wisdom of the first U.S ambassador to France Benjamin Franklin who rightly remarked that either we stick together or we will be hanged separately.”

Macron, a third senior diplomat from the same region huffed, was freelancing yet again: “It is not the first time that Macron has expressed views that are his own and do not represent the EU’s position.”

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A Central European diplomat flatly dismissed Macron’s stance as “pretty outrageous,” while another official from the same region chalked it up to an attempt “to distract from other problems and show that France is bigger than what it is” — a reference to the protests roiling France amid Macron’s pension reforms.

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Politico

Guess we got our answer on whether or not Macron speaks for all of the EU - NO. At least not for eastern and Central Europe, which I expected to be the case. Nice to see some particularly pointed rebuttals from them though.

I’ll say it again, it’s very important for us to support and foster Polish EU leadership.

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Well, the context of Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is more a statement about their relative instability, as each authoritarian country cannot deal with direct foreign rivals at the moment, which is a far contrast from when both were directly or indirectly causing havoc in Syria. The Saudi throne is always contested, and Iran has had consistent protests against the state for the first time since 2009. Given that the Saudis are attempting minor liberalization means that their political situation is more precarious, especially if hardliners gain a champion inside the Royal Court.

The issue with any deals that the Saudis make is the denomination of the currency. The China-Iran deal they supposedly made (I'm not sure if anything was ever officially signed) allowed for trade in Yuan, but the Iranians will look to offload that Yuan for something other countries will accept, because there really isn't a tertiary market for renminbi at the moment. The same is true of any potential deal with the Saudis.

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There already is the presence of China in Iran for easily a decade. Yuan for oil from Iran has been around for easily that long when China started buying their oil on China's terms. Iran has "exported" refined products via UAE, after being blended with UAE refined products, for that same length of time too, likely via Qatar and Bahrain in the same fashion. Afterall, Bahrain has been refining Iranian crude and shipping back products for decades.

In 2020 when Russia didn't want to cut oil production as needed during the covid lockdowns, Saudi Arabia let their oil flow as well and screwed Russia bigtime. Saudi Arabia is a much more efficient and lower cost producer with a $40 per barrel difference in breakeven price.

How valid are the Abraham Accords if no Arab nation honors them? The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is not just the religious schism but cultural from before then. They just hate each other worse than the Hatfields and McCoys. Now, Saudi Arabia will also screw Qatar any way it can, and vice versa. When Qadafi was overthrown it was rival influence from Qatar and Saudi Arabia keeping the place in upheaval. If things had settled down by 2015, I would have built a 300,000 BPD fully integrated refinery at Ras Lanuff funded by the Qatari Bank in Paris. The approximately $30 billion was sitting there to buy up an oilfield, revitalize it and relocated 3 idle refineries from North America and Australia to Libya. My part was only the refineries, using a contractor from Cairo for the re-erection (partially owned by a Texas based privately owned contractor and Saudi Arabia). The entity using the Qatari money was actually Tunisian (won the blood feud mislabeled Arab Spring) who lives in France but registered in Malta.

There is so much that never hits the news plus journalists are generally clueless.

@wartranslated

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Girkin's friend Murz calls out the Russian military propagandist Anna Dolgaryova for fake positive coverage of the Russian offensive. She spoke about an alleged successful advance in Avdiivka, to which he says it was all lies, and all the VDV who took part in it were killed, with no survivors.

It's an excerpt from a much longer post. He also says some brigades are known as "meat" brigades internally and no one seems to be worried about it, or about the fact that they're running out of "any infantry", not just "good infantry".

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Longer post at link. Murz is always fun.

Where do I find the leaked documents?