re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Also sad to see Ukraine have to resort to some of the same Russian recruiting methods, but at least some civilians seem more open to it than in Russia I guess?

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Ukraine has been resorting to these methods since the beginning of the war.

False. At the beginning of the war, the waiting list to enlist was over 5 weeks long.

But it has been going on for months now. As the article indicates, Ukraine is making it easier to mobilize men. The struggle will grow the longer the war persists.

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Ukraine has been resorting to these methods since the beginning of the war.

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I personally don't know if that is true or not (although it doesn't seem to be well supported), but it is difficult to criticize from here. If the Russian army invaded the United States, bombed major cities to rubble, and declared that its intention was to eliminate the United States as a country and an independent people, I would imagine that conscription would be pretty aggressive.

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I personally don't know if that is true or not (although it doesn't seem to be well supported), but it is difficult to criticize from here. If the Russian army invaded the United States, bombed major cities to rubble, and declared that its intention was to eliminate the United States as a country and an independent people, I would imagine that conscription would be pretty aggressive.

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Pretty much that way pre early 70's. Definitely that way during WWII and Korea. Plus I well remember when if a male at the age of 18 went before a judge for felony (say having sex with 16 year old gal) the choice was military enlistment or do time in prison. That happened to the son of an MD in the small town I lived in.


A personal friend and former coworker enlisted in the Army after being caught getting on with a white female classmate, a joint was magically discovered and he was given a choice by the judge in 1967. He had an athletic scholarship to college too. For him, his base commander liked his turnaround jump shot so when he was transferred to Germany, took Mike with him, instead heading to Vietnam.

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They shouldn't even allow people with access to this stuff to have Discord.

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And how would you enforce that? Lock them in a room? Follow them around 24/7? The most you could do is make a rule against it but the fact that they leaked it online in the first place suggests to me that they weren't overly concerned with rules.

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This is another reason nobody likes this war/thread,

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Posted without irony on page 2,620.

Reporters keep finding more and more stuff in those leaked papers:

Washington Post

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President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi of Egypt, one of America’s closest allies in the Middle East and a major recipient of U.S. aid, recently ordered subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a leaked U.S. intelligence document.

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The document describes Sisi issuing instructions on Feb. 1 for keeping the supply of rockets secret in order “to avoid problems with ‘the West,’” telling a person referenced only as Salah al-Din that factory workers should be told the projectiles are intended for the Egyptian army. Salah al-Din is likely Mohamed Salah al-Din, the minister of state for military production. The gunpowder offered to Russia would come from Factory 18, the document said, which is the name of a decades-old chemical manufacturing plant.

The document quotes Salah al-Din as saying he would “order his people to work shift work if necessary because it was the least Egypt could do to repay Russia for unspecified help earlier.” The document does not make it clear what the earlier Russian help was. The leaked document quotes Salah al-Din as saying the Russians told him they were willing to “buy anything.”

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The Feb. 1 conversation involving Sisi would have occurred just days after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Egypt’s president during a visit to Cairo. Immediately after Blinken’s visit, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry traveled to Moscow for talks with Russian leaders. Relations between the United States and Egypt have been strained in recent years as the Biden administration has increased pressure on Sisi’s government over its record of repressing civil society, jailing dissidents and employing force against critics.

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A U.S. government official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to address sensitive information, said: “We are not aware of any execution of that plan,” referring to the rocket export initiative. “We have not seen that happen,” the official added.

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Do note that Egypt gets a lot of aid from the US every year, and that has continued both through Republican and Democratic administrations. In 2020, it was $1.43 billion.

Oh boy. For supporters of Ukraine, this is very bad news indeed:

Washington Post


U.S. doubts Ukraine counteroffensive will yield big gains, leaked document says

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Ukraine’s challenges in massing troops, ammunition and equipment could cause its military to fall “well short” of Kyiv’s original goals for an anticipated counteroffensive aimed at retaking Russian-occupied areas this spring, according to U.S. intelligence assessments contained in a growing leak of classified documents revealing Washington’s misgivings about the state of the war.

Labeled “top secret,” the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant “force generation and sustainment shortfalls,” and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only “modest territorial gains.” It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.

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The document forecasting only modest success in Ukraine’s forthcoming counteroffensive indicates that Kyiv’s strategy revolves around reclaiming contested areas in the east while pushing south in a bid to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea, the peninsula Moscow illegally annexed in 2014 and now uses as a supply route for its forces inside Ukraine. The potency of entrenched Russian defenses coupled with “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive,” the document says.

Its markings suggest the information was supplied by human and signals intelligence, likely involving sensitive methods used by the CIA and the National Security Agency. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which appears to have produced the leaked document, declined to comment, as did the National Security Council.

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In the weeks since the leaked document was drafted, U.S. officials have held talks with Ukrainian leaders to ensure that Kyiv’s ambitions for the offensive match its capabilities, said U.S. officials who, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive matter. One senior-level exchange occurred in mid-March during a call among Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser; Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin; and their Ukrainian counterparts.

U.S. officials also have held tabletop exercises with Ukrainian military leaders to demonstrate how different offensive scenarios could play out, and the consequences of spreading forces too thin, one official said. This could stretch supply lines too far, making it difficult to hold retaken territory while trying to push further into occupied areas.

All parties came away from those conversations with a sense that Ukraine was beginning to understand the limitations of what it could achieve in the offensive and preparing accordingly, U.S. officials said. While severing the land bridge is unlikely to happen, these people said, the United States is hopeful that incremental gains could at least threaten the free flow of Russian equipment and personnel in the corridor, which has been a lifeline for invading forces.

A senior Ukrainian official did not dispute the revelations in the document and pointed to logistical backlogs that have slowed promised deliveries of Western aid. It is “partially true,” the official said, “but the most critical part is a delay of the already promised systems, which delays training of newly formed brigades and the counteroffensive as a whole.” Several nations, including the United States, have committed battle tanks and other armored vehicles to Ukraine but only after agonizing over the decision to do so, drawing criticism from Kyiv and its staunchest backers in Eastern Europe. Washington has accelerated plans to send a bloc of Abrams tanks, but delivery remains months away.

Another senior Ukrainian official said the leaked documents were unlikely to compromise the planned counteroffensive. “Everyone knows we’re low on ammunition — the president and the defense minister talk about that openly,” the official said. “And it’s been obvious to everyone since November that the next counteroffensive will be focused on the south, first Melitopol and then Berdyansk. But the exact place — we can change that the week before.”

Military officials and independent analysts have publicly suggested the likelihood of a counteroffensive through Ukraine’s east and south. Russia has bolstered its defense of the Crimean Peninsula with a dense web of fortifications and trench lines in apparent anticipation of such an operation.

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isw

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian political party. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s growing cooperation with members of the A Just Russia — For Truth party likely indicates that Prigozhin seeks to gain control over the party.[1] Meduza noted that four members of the party left to form a new movement, with some members citing the rapprochement between party leader Sergey Mironov and Prigozhin as the reason for their exit

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The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) directly responded to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s criticisms of its agenda for Russia’s presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), marking the first time that a Russian government institution has formally responded Prigozhin’s criticism. Prigozhin criticized the MFA’s work in Africa on April 7, claiming that the Russian MFA does “absolutely nothing” and that Wagner forces face “enormous difficulties” when interacting with the MFA and other government institutions in the region. The MFA responded to Prigozhin’s criticism on April 9 and said that it is ready to cooperate with Russian businesses and entrepreneurs to promote Russian businesses abroad and that a number of upcoming events under Russia’s UNSC chairmanship are dedicated to African issues.[5] Prigozhin then responded to the MFA, questioning its ability to solve problems through the UNSC, and published a list of 15 issues that Prigozhin believes require urgent discussion at the UNSC, most of which relate to support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Africa

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The Russian MFA’s attack on Prigozhin is a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin. The MFA, other Russian government institutions, and Kremlin affiliates likely seek to shut down any attempts by Prigozhin to garner public or political support. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) refused to name Wagner forces as participants in the battle of Bakhmut, referring instead to “assault detachments.”[7] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indirectly accused Prigozhin of deliberately exposing conflicts between the MoD and Wagner.[8] Russian political scientist Aleksey Mukhin — who contributes to the Kremlin-affiliated Valdai Discussion Club and Russian state media — criticized Prigozhin for pursuing political objectives that endanger Wagner forces in Bakhmut.

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Russian milbloggers adamantly decried the charging of Russian military doctor and “Union of Donbas Volunteers” member Yuri Yevich for “discrediting the Russian armed forces,” suggesting that the broad applications of this new law will likely be a growing source of discontent in the pro-war information space. Russian authorities reportedly charged Yevich under the discreditation law because of a lecture on tactical medicine he gave to Rosgvardia employees, which someone reported to the authorities as offering a “negative assessment” of Russian forces.[11] Yevich fought with Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) militias in Donbas after 2014 and was a part of the ”Union of Donbas volunteers” following the full-scale invasion in 2022.[12] Yevich became popular in the pro-war Russian information space for popularizing and advocating for the application of tactical combat medicine on the battlefield.[13] Several pro-war milbloggers and commentators seized on the news of Yevich’s arrest and criticized Russian authorities for targeting someone whom they deem to be a true Russian patriot

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The Russian State Duma will consider an amendment to the Russian Criminal Code increasing criminal penalties for high treason and terrorist activities on April 13.[16] The Russian State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation approved amendments to the Russian Criminal Code that would introduce life prison sentences for high treason and increase prison sentences for terrorist activities, including conducting terrorist activities, aiding terrorist activities, sabotaging transport and health infrastructure and, organizing and participating in a terrorist society.[17] The Russian Criminal Code’s definition of treason is likely intentionally vague, including espionage, passing state secrets to foreign governments or their representatives, and providing financial, logistical, consulting, or other assistance to foreign organizations engaged in activities directed against Russian state security.

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Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus, on April 10. Shoigu and Lukashenko mainly used the meeting to reiterate boilerplate rhetoric that emphasized the strength of Russian and Belarusian bilateral cooperation and blamed NATO and the collective West for threatening Belarusian territorial integrity.[20] Lukashenko expressed his gratitude that Russia maintains a military presence in Belarus and accused Poland and Lithuania of threatening the Belarusian borders, while Shoigu thanked Lukashenko for providing Belarusian training grounds for the use of Russian troops

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Key Takeaways

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly advancing his political aspirations by seeking to gain control of a Russian political party.

Putin may be unable to satisfy the role of a patron to loyalist figures to the same extent as he had been able to before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) directly responded to Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s criticisms of its agenda at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), marking the first time that a Russian government institution has formally responded to Prigozhin’s criticism.

The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) attack on Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is a continuation of the Kremlin’s efforts to discredit and undermine Prigozhin.

Russian milbloggers adamantly decried the charging of Russian military doctor and “Union of Donbas Volunteers” member Yuri Yevich for “discrediting the Russian armed forces,” suggesting that the broad applications of this new law will likely be a growing source of discontent in the pro-war information space.

The Russian State Duma will consider an amendment to the Russian Criminal Code increasing criminal penalties for high treason and terrorist activities on April 13.

Russian Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Belarus, on April 10.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued to make territorial gains in and around Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian forces continued defensive preparations in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin criticized Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) prisoner recruitment efforts, likely in an effort to advertise ongoing Wagner volunteer recruitment campaigns.

Wagner forces are reportedly continuing to commit war crimes by beheading Ukrainian servicemen in Bakhmut.

Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to deport children to Russia under the guise of medical, rehabilitation, and voluntary evacuation schemes.

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If it were psy op, they wouldn't have included embarrassing details about other unrelated countries like SK. The thought has crossed me mind.