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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:24 am to GeauxxxTigers23
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:24 am to GeauxxxTigers23
ISW
quote:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 7 that the hypothetical Russian capture of Bakhmut would provide Russian forces an “open road” to Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and other critical settlements in Donetsk Oblast.[1]
ISW continues to assess, however, that Russian forces lack the capability to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut to generate operational effects, and will likely rapidly culminate following the capture of Bakhmut.
quote:
Russian forces additionally likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare. Recent Russian advances within urban areas of Bakhmut demonstrate that Russian forces can secure limited tactical gains with infantry-led frontal assaults.[4] Russian forces likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to exploit the roads (which are likely highly fortified) west of Bakhmut. As ISW has recently reported, Russian forces are increasingly relying on “assault detachments,” a battalion-size element optimized for frontal assaults on fortified areas, rather than for maneuver warfare.[5] These detachments are artillery-heavy, use simplified tactics, relegate tanks to a fire support role in rear areas, and would almost certainly struggle to effectively conduct operations beyond urban areas. A prominent Russian milblogger echoed this observation on March 7, noting that assault detachments are simply too small to “punch a wide and deep gap” in Ukrainian defensive formations and follow with tank and mechanized battalions, and called for the formation of “breakthrough brigades,” a change likely far beyond the current capabilities of Russian forces in the area.[6] The continuing devolution of Russian force structure towards small assault detachments using simplified tactics, combined with mounting losses among the most effective Russian troops, will likely greatly limit the ability of Russian forces to properly exploit any paths of advance opened by the capture of Bakhmut. Russian forces remain unlikely to secure more than a tactical victory following 10 months of assaults.
quote:
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric seeking to deter further Western military aid to Ukraine during a conference call on March 7.[7] Shoigu reiterated senior Russian officials’ tired claims that Western states aim to destroy Russia by providing arms to Ukraine and have begun an information war targeting Russia. Shoigu invoked the commonly referenced historical memory of World War II to justify the war in Ukraine, calling on Russians to prevent lessons learned from defeating Nazism “to be distorted and forgotten.” Shoigu claimed that Russian forces killed over 11,000 Ukrainian military personnel in February 2023, which he claimed was a 40 percent increase from Ukrainian casualties in January. Shoigu’s speech did not craft any new rhetorical arguments that could shape the Russian information space and garner more domestic support for the war effort, continuing to rely on standard tropes in the absence of any Russian successes.
quote:
Shoigu also outlined long-term and likely aspirational efforts to restore and expand the Russian officer corps.[8] Shoigu stated that the Russian military is undergoing a phased increase and needs to recruit about 18,000 students and cadets for officer training. Shoigu noted that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) needs to increase staffing at Russian universities to provide adequate training for over 280 military specialties and claimed that Russians are increasingly interested in the engineering and flight specialties. Shoigu also stated that children of Russian military personnel and students at select schools will undergo selection for military specialties before taking the necessary exams. Shoigu also noted claimed ongoing efforts by Russian forces in Ukraine to refine training processes, increase the protection of military personnel, and increase the efficiency of military operations.
quote:
Russia exchanged 130 Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) for 90 Russian POWs on March 7. The Ukrainian State Border Service reported that of the 130 Ukrainian soldiers released, 87 fought in Mariupol, including 71 Azovstal defenders.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that 90 Russian soldiers returned to Russia, and a Russian milblogger posted footage claiming to show the released Russian soldiers receiving new boots and clothes in Belgorod Oblast
quote:
Russian independent polling organization The Levada Center released poll results that 51 percent of Russians feel negatively toward Russians who left the country due to mobilization.[11] Ten percent of Russians polled indicated that they have a positive or understanding attitude toward those that left. The Levada Center poll indicated that Russians over 55 years old and those living in rural areas and cities with fewer than 100,000 residents are most likely to have negative attitudes toward Russians who left due to mobilization. The Levada Center’s polling data demonstrates that the Kremlin retains a strong hold over the domestic information space.
quote:
The New York Times (NYT) reported on March 7 that low-confidence and unverified intelligence reviewed by US officials may suggest that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022. US officials reported that they know very little about the “perpetrators or their affiliations,” but that they may be “opponents” of Russian President Vladimir Putin.[12] The NYT article emphasizes that US officials refused to disclose the nature of the intelligence and have not settled on an explanation of the Nord Stream attacks, and this leak remains low-confidence.
quote:
US Air Force General James B. Hecker, commander of US Air Forces in Europe-Air Forces Africa, and NATO Allied Air Command confirmed on March 6 that the US has provided Ukraine with Joint Direct Attack Munition Extended Range (JDAM-ER) kits.[13] Hecker noted that the JDAM-ERs arrived in Ukraine three weeks ago and have a range of 72km.[14] Russian milbloggers generally had a muted response to the announcement, with one Russian source voicing concern that JDAM-ERs will allow Ukrainian forces to launch strikes against Russian front and near rear positions without running the risk of entering Russian airspace
1
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:24 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Key Takeaways
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on March 7 that Russian forces will have an “open road” to capture key cities in Donbas. ISW continues to assess, however, that Russian forces lack the capability to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut to generate operational effects, and will likely rapidly culminate following the capture of Bakhmut.
Russian forces likely lack the mechanized forces necessary to advance beyond Bakhmut, and the tactical “assault detachments” used in assaults against Bakhmut are likely unable to conduct maneuver warfare.
Russian forces have likely captured the eastern part of Bakhmut east of the Bakhmutka River following a controlled Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern Bakhmut as of March 7.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu reiterated boilerplate rhetoric seeking to deter further Western military aid to Ukraine.
Shoigu additionally outlined long-term and likely aspirational efforts to restore and expand the Russian officer corps.
Russia exchanged 130 Ukrainian prisoners-of-war (POWs) for 90 Russian POWs on March 7.
Russian independent polling organization The Levada Center released poll results that 51 percent of Russians feel negatively toward Russians who left the country due to mobilization, indicating at minimum negative feelings towards those that escaped mobilization, if not overt support for the war.
The New York Times (NYT) stated on March 7 that low-confidence and unverified intelligence reviewed by US officials may suggest that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out an attack on the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, but made clear this is a very low confidence assessment.
US Air Force General James Hecker confirmed on March 6 that the US has provided Ukraine with Joint Direct Attack Munition Extended Range (JDAM-ER) kits.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces attempt to conduct operations across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Russian federal authorities continue to place the onus of solving mobilization issues onto Russian regional authorities who then absolve themselves of ongoing Russian command issues.
Russian occupation authorities continue to import employees from various Russian law enforcement agencies to staff vacancies in occupation administrations.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:27 am to Obtuse1
quote:
I don't really consider Janes, Lowy Institute, or Global Firepower to be media but you may. In any case the "rankings" share a lot of similarities to pre-season football polls. It is predicated on past performance and talent at each position et al. The talent in the military ranking is primarily based on numbers. Russia has a lot of big numbers but they are showing they don't really understand how to use many of their assets to their potential. Also, a lot of their assets have proven to be less capable than one would expect.
Russia has wielded their military much like a club against Ukraine in my view. They genuinely expected them to roll over after whacking them on the head hard enough, not without reason given the 2014 campaign.
Their problem is Ukraine didn't and their poor start to the war has been exacerbated by graft and corruption that appears to be part and parcel of their current system. Coupled that with too much importance placed on top down control and it was a melting pot for a bad idea.
However they have adapted, the new assault groups are more tactically flexible and have been effective in punching into Ukraine defensive lines and slowly pulling them apart along with the traditional dearth of artillery support, think of it as adding nails to the club to give it more piercing power.
The problem with these groups, as I see it is that they are only effective at a local level, and still incur significant casualties. Additionally it remains to be seen how effective such groups will be at responding to high manoeuvre warfare once the mud dries up and Ukraine is in a position to use such tactics. A club, even one with nails is only a short ranged weapon. While they may perform fine against relatively static defences unless Russia makes significant improvements to squad level decision making I don't see them being capable on defence.
This may be where Russia is relying on their own static defences to hold things up, they certainly look to have been putting plenty in.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:39 am to momentoftruth87
quote:
Lol they’ve increased their economy.
I've trying to stay away from political posts, but this is just flat out wrong. Their GDP dropped between 2.2% and 3.9%. He'll the best case forecast has a flat GDP (0.3%) growth for 2023. Granted they did avoid the 12% decline that was originally forecasted.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:40 am to Chromdome35
quote:
I think this statement is a source of misunderstanding in debates about Ukraine. No one that follows the war closely, like many in this thread, pays much attention to, or bases their opinions on, what the western media is saying. They have proven to be myoptic, biased, stupid and outright liars.
Indeed, it is one of the invaluable things about this thread.
While there is a bit of bias to the information shared here it is by no means a flood of curated talking heads and main stream headlines.
In the early days of the war the main stream media coverage was terrible (and still is). That was how I came to the thread as I after more first hand, or at least second hand information rather than the "latest newsfeed" stuff that was always several days old and so regurgitated it bore little resemblance to its original context.
I continue to thank the regular contributors for keeping it going and the time they put in to chasing down new stuff, even those who go against the thread consensus but post with substance bring valid information and discussion.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:45 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There is still every reason to believe that this was the weapon used to attack Saki air base in Crimea last fall.
I saw that in one of the links I shared but didn't mention it because it seemed a bit implausible to me, my question being why use that on the air base rather than Kerch bridge?
I would be surprised, if the system is viable, that they haven't set it up in a safe sphere in Western Ukraine, one of the things that they have needed is a longer strike range and with Western weapons not forth coming till recently it was the easiest path for them to acquire them.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 1:56 am to OutsideObserver
I've only recently found Tatarigami's stuff but have found them to be both interesting and informative. Thanks to whom initially share it, I think it was Chrome?
This one is about captured Russian media devices and the thinking and mindset that they generally portray - much of it is reported to centre around the war as a means for financial gain rather than the Kremlin "reasons"
Twitter - @Tatarigami_UA
This one is about captured Russian media devices and the thinking and mindset that they generally portray - much of it is reported to centre around the war as a means for financial gain rather than the Kremlin "reasons"
Twitter - @Tatarigami_UA
Posted on 3/8/23 at 2:05 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
Wagner Commander Yevgeny Prigozhin was filmed speaking at the T-34-85 Memorial in Eastern Bakhmut early this morning; he states that Ukrainian Forces have now Withdrawn from the Eastern Districts of the City over the Bakhmutovka River.
Wagner Forces had been filmed placing the Flag of the Wagner Group on the Memorial yesterday; however if Prigozhin is willing to approach the Monument than it is expected that the Frontline in the City has moved significantly to the West of it.
LINK
Posted on 3/8/23 at 6:29 am to GeauxxxTigers23
I was wrong first in 1982 then first tested in 1991
Posted on 3/8/23 at 6:43 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 4 March 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defence released a video of a rare visit to Ukraine by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. There is a realistic possibility that this was partially in response to recent footage of the owner of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, visiting his fighters on the front line. Wagner is in a high-profile dispute with the Russian Ministry of Defence and Shoigu is likely sensitive to being compared to Prigozhin.
The only deployed Russian field commander shown in the video was Colonel General Rustam Muradov. It is notable that Muradov is responsible for the Vuhledar sector of Donetsk Oblast, where several assaults have failed in the last three months.
Until recently, the Russian command likely saw a breakthrough at Vuhledar as a key way to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in Ukraine's lines. Russian planners are likely facing the dilemma of attempting another Vuhledar assault or supporting intense fighting further north near Bakhmut and Kremina.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 March 2023
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
On 4 March 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defence released a video of a rare visit to Ukraine by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. There is a realistic possibility that this was partially in response to recent footage of the owner of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, visiting his fighters on the front line. Wagner is in a high-profile dispute with the Russian Ministry of Defence and Shoigu is likely sensitive to being compared to Prigozhin.
The only deployed Russian field commander shown in the video was Colonel General Rustam Muradov. It is notable that Muradov is responsible for the Vuhledar sector of Donetsk Oblast, where several assaults have failed in the last three months.
Until recently, the Russian command likely saw a breakthrough at Vuhledar as a key way to achieve an operationally significant breakthrough in Ukraine's lines. Russian planners are likely facing the dilemma of attempting another Vuhledar assault or supporting intense fighting further north near Bakhmut and Kremina.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 6:52 am to OutsideObserver
quote:
This one is about captured Russian media devices and the thinking and mindset that they generally portray - much of it is reported to centre around the war as a means for financial gain rather than the Kremlin "reasons"
Something we have heard time and again from the get go in intercepted calls (via the Ukrainian cell tower system), alao in the first months stolen cars and even toilets. Much like some empty apartment complexes bought up by Californian developers right after Katrina which were stripped of copper pipe, wiring and even toilets by occupants
Posted on 3/8/23 at 6:54 am to cubsfan5150
The old joke.
"How do you know if someone is a marine?"
--" if they didn't tell you within 5 seconds of meeting you they are not a marine"
"How do you know if someone is a marine?"
--" if they didn't tell you within 5 seconds of meeting you they are not a marine"
Posted on 3/8/23 at 6:54 am to jfan244888
quote:
New tweet claims Ukraine has pushed the Russians back again around Bahkmut. Hopefully its get confirmed with a new ISW in the morning.
Well, it's actually more than just a tweet from that guy. He's quoting the official report of the Ukrainian general staff.
Ukraine does not normally say "We took this town," or "We lost this town." What they do say is the areas that they are fighting, something like "We repelled attacks in the areas of City A, Little Town B, and Village C."
The report today said that Ukraine repelled attacks in the areas of Berkhivka to the north of Bakhmut and Klishchiyvika to the south. Wagner took Berkhivka on February 24th, and Russia captured Klishchiyvika way back on January 20th.
If there is fighting in those areas now, as Ukraine claims, it means that Ukraine has pushed Russia back a good distance in areas both north and south of the city.
Again, that would mean that Ukraine has almost eliminated the "pocket" it was in in Bakhmut. Here's a new map from @HeliosRunner:
At first glance, this may be hard to square with other reports coming in that Russia is continuing to take more of Bakhmut, but those reports are referring to areas inside the city itself, where Ukraine abandoned the eastern half the city and established new positions along the river that divides Bakhmut, with the result that Russia has taken those positions.
The upshot of all this is that Ukraine is in much better shape to hold the western part of Bakhmut (and the city's central square and city hall), and I think that they should now be able to drive in and out of the city without getting shelled on the road.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 7:00 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
The requirement for HIMARS first came about in 1982, when the 9th Infantry Division (Motorized) saw the need to acquire a light multiple rocket launcher as a counterfire asset, but the requirement failed to gather support from the Field Artillery School and languished for a number of years.[14] The institutional bias at the time was oriented towards heavy forces.[15] However, with the waning of the Cold War and the growing interest in low-intensity operations, both Field Artillery School and Missile Command realized that the M270 MLRS was too heavy for rapid deployment and pushed for the funding of HIMARS.[15] The Gulf War gave a further incentive towards fielding a lightweight MLRS, when the M270 proved too costly in airlift assets to deploy in theater and the launchers did not arrive with the initial wave of U.S. troops.[15] The HIMARS concept was tested on April 1991 at White Sands Missile Range, using a modified Honest John launcher.[16]
LINK
Posted on 3/8/23 at 7:09 am to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
Not really. It was that same western media that convinced you Russia had the second most powerful military on the planet. Russia has been performing exactly as they always have in military conflicts. Slow, methodical, and playing a numbers game.
I read lots of western media, but I definitely read other stuff too. Yesterday, I linked here in this thread to TopWar.ru, a Russian war news site. On twitter, it's the same. I am personally a supporter of Ukraine, but I want to read guys like @200_zoka to get reports from a pro-Russian point of view. It's definitely important not to get stuck in confirmation bias.
I don't know what numbers game Russia is supposedly playing, though. The game of losing over 200,000 men, according to NATO estimates? The game of losing over 1800 tanks (visually confirmed and documented)? The game of using human-wave attacks to lose five times as many soldiers as Ukraine in fighting around Bakhmut? The game of using up all your artillery shells so that your shell hunger is so bad that you have one military leader calling others traitors for not providing him with more?
Posted on 3/8/23 at 7:39 am to Napoleon
I see y’all’s confusion now. The “HIMARS” you’ve linked to is nothing but a lightweight truck that fires rockets with an explosive on the end.
HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System.
When they were first introduced they were not precision guided and had relatively very short ranged rockets. Functionally not much different than the Grom that both Russia and Ukraine are using now. Really just a lighter, non tracked version of the M270 MLRS.
When we say HIMARS in the context of the Ukraine war what we’re really talking about is the GMLRS rocket. The high precision Lang range GPS guided rocket that is being by Ukraine today.
It was in no way, shape or form in development during the Cold War. It was even fielded by the US military till 07-08 or so and I don’t think used in combat until the 2010’s.
It’s not an old weapon system. The stuff we’re giving to Ukraine doesn’t come from old Cold War stockpiles. It’s an extremely sophisticated and new weapon system that costs a frick ton of money. Anyone saying otherwise is simply misinformed or lying.
HIgh Mobility Artillery Rocket System.
When they were first introduced they were not precision guided and had relatively very short ranged rockets. Functionally not much different than the Grom that both Russia and Ukraine are using now. Really just a lighter, non tracked version of the M270 MLRS.
When we say HIMARS in the context of the Ukraine war what we’re really talking about is the GMLRS rocket. The high precision Lang range GPS guided rocket that is being by Ukraine today.
It was in no way, shape or form in development during the Cold War. It was even fielded by the US military till 07-08 or so and I don’t think used in combat until the 2010’s.
It’s not an old weapon system. The stuff we’re giving to Ukraine doesn’t come from old Cold War stockpiles. It’s an extremely sophisticated and new weapon system that costs a frick ton of money. Anyone saying otherwise is simply misinformed or lying.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 7:55 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
When we say HIMARS in the context of the Ukraine war what we’re really talking about is the GMLRS rocket. The high precision Lang range GPS guided rocket that is being by Ukraine today.
So, you're concerned about the expense of the M31 rockets that we are giving to Ukraine. I am too. They cost $168,000 per rocket.
But that's also part of the story of how this war has benefited the US taxpayer, because without the war, the Pentagon would have probably not pursued GLSDB -- just out of bureaucratic inertia. But now GLSDB is in full production, and it has the potential to pack the same punch as an M31 rocket for only $40,000 per rocket, with a much greater range.
There are already so many innovations that have come about due to the war which will make the US military more efficient in the future.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 8:03 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
On Nord Stream, the British paper The Times has a very interesting story:
On Nord Stream, the British paper The Times has a very interesting story:
quote:
A week after the Nord Stream pipeline exploded, staff at a Scandinavian delegation in Brussels walked out of their embassy intelligence briefing, impressed by the level of detail they had received so soon after the attack.
It hadn’t been carried out by the Americans, the Russians or the Poles, their intelligence service apparently told them, but by a private venture originating in Ukraine. They were told this would not be made public and to deflect any questions about why the official investigation into the destruction of the Russo-German pipeline was moving so slowly.
The name of the suspected private sponsor, a Ukrainian not affiliated with President Zelensky’s government, has been circulating in intelligence circles for months but not revealed.
Nato officials, it appears, wanted to protect Ukraine from a public spat with Germany, which had been dragging its heels over whether to deliver vital military aid, including Leopard 2 tanks and IRIS-T air defence systems.
This is only fair — they probably knew who was responsible before the presidential administration or the defence ministry in Kyiv, who have been blindsided by the report and furiously deny involvement.
quote:
Confusion over the relationship between Zelensky’s government and the saboteurs will breed suspicion. It will embolden those in Germany who are pressuring Olaf Scholz, the chancellor, to curtail military aid, and ultimately harm Ukraine.
That is presumably not the intent of the influential figure suspected to have bankrolled such a sophisticated operation from his own pocket — involving a yacht, elite divers, forged passports and the procurement of shaped explosive charges only available to the gas and oil industry with a specific licence and at great cost.
His name will surely appear eventually, particularly given that he appears to have left a peculiar calling card. Ukraine’s relationship with its allies will fare better if the individual comes clean.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 8:07 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
So, you're concerned about the expense of the M31 rockets that we are giving to Ukraine. I am too. They cost $168,000 per rocket. But that's also part of the story of how this war has benefited the US taxpayer, because without the war, the Pentagon would have probably not pursued GLSDB -- just out of bureaucratic inertia. But now GLSDB is in full production, and it has the potential to pack the same punch as an M31 rocket for only $40,000 per rocket, with a much greater range. There are already so many innovations that have come about due to the war which will make the US military more efficient in the future.
I’m more making the point that it isn’t just a bunch of old shite that we have laying on the shelf like a few in this thread have tried to say numerous times.
In fact the majority of our aid isn’t old shite laying around on a shelf that we were going to throw away unless we sent it to Ukraine.
Posted on 3/8/23 at 8:13 am to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:
It was that same western media that convinced you Russia had the second most powerful military on the planet. Russia has been performing exactly as they always have in military conflicts. Slow, methodical, and playing a numbers game.
My guy, it was the Russian Military that was selling the world as a reformed, modern military. They believed their own hype after their “successes” in Syria and their 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Believing their own bullshite very likely lead to this war.
Do you honestly believe Putin/Russian leadership would’ve launched this war if they knew it would’ve turned into this?
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