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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 3/2/23 at 5:57 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 3/2/23 at 5:57 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Holy circular logic Batman.
Agreed. It leans into the belief that the MIC instigated everything for profit but that ignores the significant uncontrolled variables that needed to align to be where we are at now.
quote:
War crimes claim based on his seeing troops being placed near civilians that could then be shown to journalists if they became casualties
This is the other logical fallacy that I am surprised people fall into. Ukraine is somehow at fault for defending it's land and population and then showing what is happening?
While you can argue the ethics of such tactics, who pulled the trigger? Not Ukraine.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 5:59 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
This is the other logical fallacy that I am surprised people fall into.
People twist facts to fit whatever view they have.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:01 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There were reports yesterday (Posted in the thread) about Ukraine losing a battalion a week in Bakhmut, which would mean Russia is loosing 7 Battalions a week...7,000 troops. Thats a massive number.
I agree that sounds massively high and doubt it myself. However it would possibly explain Ukraine's reluctance to leave Bahkmut if the loss rates are at those levels since in a straight numbers game they are exceeding the "needed attrition" to beat Russia in manpower terms by almost double.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:05 pm to OutsideObserver
They have said before on past battles (sevedonsk? I think) that they had to forget Russia somewhere and couldn’t just keep falling back. That picking a city siege battle where the defense has largest advantage was the best way to bleed Russia's combat effectiveness.
You fall back and you still need to fight the enemy. But you lose the urban combat advantage.
You fall back and you still need to fight the enemy. But you lose the urban combat advantage.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:06 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
People twist facts to fit whatever view they have.
Only if they fear of challenging their safe space.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:09 pm to OutsideObserver
I have my doubts as well; however, the report yesterday about Ukraine's losses was from a Ukrainian source. That doesn't mean it was correct though.
When this is all over, it will be interesting to learn what really happened.
When this is all over, it will be interesting to learn what really happened.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:14 pm to tigeraddict
quote:
They have said before on past battles (sevedonsk? I think) that they had to forget Russia somewhere and couldn’t just keep falling back. That picking a city siege battle where the defense has largest advantage was the best way to bleed Russia's combat effectiveness.
You fall back and you still need to fight the enemy. But you lose the urban combat advantage.
True, it certainly seems to be how they have fought thus far, and they have had to pick their battles while the West talks itself into crossing the latest "no" line which has not helped timelines and created the need to hold on longer in some parts than they should.
It will be interesting to see how the touted Spring offensive takes shape, as others have said, it will likely determine the outcome of the war being positive for Ukraine.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:17 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
.
When this is all over, it will be interesting to learn what really happened.
The thread is a definite indicator of how debated it will be
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:22 pm to cypher
quote:
And the count is 1 to 7 in our favour."
That sounds a little high and I haven't seen anything that backs that up. Most are saying it's more like 3:1 in Ukraine's favor.
Even 3:1 is significant and has to make the Russian MOD start doing some math that could have serious consequences going forward. Apparently they're fine with 3:1 right now. What is the number that makes them stop and rethink what they're doing? Hopefully not too much higher for everyone's sake.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 6:30 pm to IAmNERD
quote:
That sounds a little high and I haven't seen anything that backs that up. Most are saying it's more like 3:1 in Ukraine's favor.
I keep going back to report after report that the Russians were using convicts and other undesirables in human wave assaults. That kind of tactic has to produce outsized Russian casualties. But also for a lot of the casualties, they weren't valuable or trained fighters anyway, so the losses may not have had hurt the Russians as much as they would have had they been some other kind of soldier.
But however it ultimately shakes out, this has been a tragedy of a battle all the way around.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:10 pm to OutsideObserver
quote:
Served in 1st Armoured division in Texas for 2 years.
Claims there was a lot of drinking, weed, a member caught with bricks of cocaine, prostitutes, etc, all on base during his time there.
So....just like every other military base on the planet, regardless of what Nationality?
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:32 pm to TBoy
quote:
I keep going back to report after report that the Russians were using convicts and other undesirables in human wave assaults. That kind of tactic has to produce outsized Russian casualties.
Right. I think that the result of those engagements might have had a 7:1 ratio.
I don't believe that it's even 2 to 1 today. Holding Bakhmut while getting pounded from three sides, and while your only way in or out of the city is on a road regularly hit by artillery? That is not a situation that is going to produce highly favorable casualty ratios.
I absolutely do not think that, if we look strictly at Bakhmut, it makes sense for Ukraine to stay another minute. The only way it makes sense is part of the larger strategic picture: keeping the "Russian offensive" going, which is costing Russia bigtime (especially at Vuhledar), and which prevents it from preparing to defend against the big Ukrainian offensive to occur next month.
This post was edited on 3/2/23 at 7:37 pm
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:34 pm to GOP_Tiger
This was laughable before the war. Now? I don't even know what to say.

This post was edited on 3/2/23 at 7:35 pm
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
That dude posts on the Poliboard.
This post was edited on 3/2/23 at 7:38 pm
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:46 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Statement by an alleged participant of the 2 March Bryansk incident
quote:
Statement by an alleged participant of the 2 March Bryansk incident
Posted on 03 March 2023
|
in Media
|
by WarTranslated
We found a post on a pro-Ukrainian telegram channel “Skrynka Pandory” which contains a short Q&A with an alleged participant of the 2 March incident in Bryansk Obl, Russia.
The Q&A is provided in the Russian language, and the author calls himself a medic of the group. According to this individual, the group took a month to prepare for the operation, acted rapidly despite the enemy presence, and withdrew before the Russians were able to respond effectively. It appears that the goal of the mission was to shock the Russians and test their defensive measures in the areas bordering Ukraine.
We do not have a way to confirm that the below information is true.
Translation of the post provided below:
“An interview with a fighter who participated in today’s battles in the Bryansk region.
Due to the incident having some secret details, the interview will be divided into two parts. In the second part, there will be other interesting and funny details of today’s events.
We will write about them when it will be possible.
The main quote of the interview: they thought that we weren’t doing it because we could not. We showed that we did not do this before because we just didn’t want to.
Question: How long did the preparation for the operation take?
Answer: A very long time, about a month. The air reconnaissance was carried out literally across the entire sector for several weeks, all the routes of the movement of border guards, local law enforcement agencies were studied, and in general, anything that could be studied, was studied, up to the permanent schedule of shifts at the posts. A separate problem was to organise medics: due to the secrecy of the operation, it was impossible to disclose where, how and what it would be. That is, a prepared crew of medevac had, upon request, to go to an unknown location, not knowing what to do. There were also problems with local hospitals due to the aforementioned secrecy, it was impossible to openly prepare them for the possible intake of patients.
Question: Who were you in the group?
Answer: I am one of the group’s medics.
Question: What emotions did you experience at the stage of operation planning? And what emotions did you have during the battle in the Russian Federation?
Answer: At the stage of planning the operation, there was a great surprise and shock at the arrogance of those who volunteered to do this. During the battle, emotions were rather absent, the situation developed rapidly and complete concentration was necessary. Nearly at the very beginning of the operation, the f*ggots [Russians] turned on the electronic suppression and the connection with the groups disappeared almost completely. Because of this, there were difficulties with understanding the situation on the battlefield, it was impossible to convey to groups the information from birds [drones], and coordination between the groups also went to sh*t.
Question: How did you and your combat comrades react to the clowning of propagandists about the capture of hostages, the murder of children, and the shooting of a school bus? Obviously, they tried to make terrorists out of you, and interestingly, the local authorities later refuted this information.
As a result, they even refuted the seizure of settlements.
What really happened?
Answer: We are still exchanging posts from the Z-channels and laughing.
In fact, the operation was almost bloodless. A whole one border guard was neutralised, and then the groups moved around without any active resistance.
Closer to half of the time we spent there, a fight with f*ggots on vehicles broke out, but what is particularly funny is that vehicles were suppressed by grenade launchers and retreated, and never emerged again.
Question: Is it possible to draw conclusions about the real defense capability of Russians based on the results of today’s events? Or could you say that they did not expect such a “turn of events”?
There is a feeling that they are absolutely not ready for the defense of their lands.
Answer: Real defense capacity at the border is a hundred times worse than what we have organised. Apparently, there are still many areas where ordinary border guards are located without reinforcements of mobilised.
Yes, indeed, they were not even ready for such a turn of events. Judging by their further behavior after our departure, they had no idea what happened and what to do next.
They are actually not ready for the defense of their regions, but if necessary, I think, they will do the same distribution of weapons as we had at the beginning of the war, and hope will be placed on the forces of the local militia, and this will deliver quite a lot of problems. I think that the capture of the regions of the Russian Federation through direct action is difficult to carry out, and will be accompanied by large losses on our part. Given thei
Posted on 3/2/23 at 7:53 pm to StormyMcMan
Thanks, I was just coming back to post that.
So, the whole killing and kidnapping children stuff was just a Russian lie? Color me shocked. One Russian border guard (a lawful combatant) was killed in the operation.
So, the whole killing and kidnapping children stuff was just a Russian lie? Color me shocked. One Russian border guard (a lawful combatant) was killed in the operation.
Posted on 3/2/23 at 8:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW
quote:
The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia on March 2 — a claim that Ukrainian officials denied. Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that “several dozen” Ukrainian saboteurs conducted an armed incursion into the villages of Lyubenchane and Sushany on the international border.[1] The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) doubled down on Bogomaz’s accusation and claimed that the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) conducted an operation to “eliminate” Ukrainian saboteurs who reportedly killed one individual and took up to six individuals hostage.[2] Russian milbloggers and news aggregators offered differing information about the number of casualties and hostages, including claims that Ukrainian saboteurs fired on a school bus.[3] Russian President Vladimir Putin then responded unusually quickly to these claims, alleging that “neo-Nazis and their owners” carried out a “terrorist attack” against Bryansk Oblast.[4] Putin did not directly name Ukraine as the perpetrator of the attack in his televised statement, prompting Russian state media to later clarify that Putin meant ”Ukrainian neo-Nazis.”[5] Putin also claimed that Russia will "crush” neo-Nazis that have consistently aimed to deprive Russia of its history, killed the daughter of Russian nationalist ideolog Alexander Dugin, and ”killed people in Donbas.”[6]
Ukrainian officials denied the Kremlin’s accusations of Ukraine’s involvement in Bryansk Oblast and claimed that Russian officials might be facing problems with increasing partisan activity in Russia. Ukrainian Presidential Adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated that Russian accusations are a deliberate “provocation” aimed at scaring the Russian people into believing that Russia needs to continue to fight in Ukraine.[7] Representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Andriy Yusov stated that the incident in Bryansk Oblast is “part of transformative processes in Russia” and pointed to inter-ethnic, inter-religious, and socio-economic conflicts among Russian citizens in Russia.[8] Yusov also noted that the March 2 public statements of the Russian Volunteer Corps’, which claimed responsibility for the incursion, further show that “Russia is beginning to wake up against Putin’s bloody dictatorship.”
quote:
The Bryansk incident generated speculation by Russian officials and ultranationalist groups about the Kremlin’s response to the situation. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov refused to comment on questions regarding any change of the “special military operation” status to “war” because of the incident.[13] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin sarcastically observed that Russia had been allowing Ukraine to violate its “red lines” and used the opportunity to promote Wagner mercenaries.[14] Russian officials such as Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov along with milbloggers called on the Kremlin to expand security measures and conduct retaliatory operations.[15] Kadyrov, for example, called on the Kremlin to target civilians to punish the perpetrators of this incident - effectively calling for Russia to conduct war crimes. Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers and former proxy officials also called on the Kremlin to designate the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Volunteer Corps, and Ukrainian armed organizations as terrorist organizations and compared the incident to the Beslan school siege in North Ossetia in 2004.
quote:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on March 2 that Germany is negotiating with allies about providing security guarantees to Ukraine but provided no further details on these proposed guarantees.[21] Scholz emphasized that the pact would only work if Ukraine prevailed in the war. Scholz mentioned the security guarantees while criticizing China for failing to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and calling on Chinese authorities to pressure Russia into withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine. Scholz’ statements are consistent with reports of a proposed Ukraine-NATO defense pact that would provide enough arms to Ukraine to force Russia to the negotiation table, but would not offer Article V protection or obligate NATO states to deploy forces to Ukraine.
quote:
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken briefly spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India on March 2 about Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (New START).[23] Blinken stated that he urged Lavrov to reverse Russia’s February 28 suspension of Russian cooperation with New START, which imposes verifiable limits on the number of Russian and US intercontinental-range nuclear weapons. Blinken expressed US readiness to collaborate with Russia on strategic nuclear arms control regardless of the status of the war in Ukraine or the US-Russia relationship.[24] Blinken separately called on Russia to stop its war in Ukraine and come to the negotiating table and to release detained American Paul Whelan.[25] Russian officials are highly unlikely to pursue meaningful discussions to restore New START, however. The Kremlin very probably is weaponizing fears of nuclear escalation and the suspension of New START in hopes of deterring Western support for Ukraine and slowing down pledged Western military aid transfers. The Kremlin remains extremely unlikely to use nuclear weapons but routinely makes low-credibility threats of nuclear escalation in an effort to intimidate the West and appeal to its ultranationalist base
quote:
Russian authorities appear to be concerned over a growing loss of leverage in Serbia, which Russia has worked to integrate into the Russian sphere of influence for many years. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated on March 2 that reports of Serbian authorities secretly transferring multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) ammunition to Ukraine are a matter of “deepest concern.”[27] Russian state-affiliated news aggregator Mash claimed on February 27 that Serbian defense company Krusik supplied over 3,500 Grad MLRS rockets to Ukraine but claimed that it is not clear that Krusik knew that Ukraine was the final buyer of the rockets.[28] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin responded to Serbian President Alexander Vucic’s prior complaint that Wagner Group is recruiting in Serbia, claiming that no Serbian personnel have served in Wagner Group in 2023 and characterizing Vucic as having “thrown a tantrum in vain.”
Posted on 3/2/23 at 8:39 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and several Russian milbloggers continue to debate the appropriateness of criticism of Russian war efforts as they react to a proposed amendment to Russia’s Criminal Code which would increase punishments for “discrediting” the war in Ukraine. Prigozhin on March 1 defended his statements made earlier that day defending criticism of the war effort. Prigozhin claimed that Russians should have the right to criticize Russian commanders and strategists, including himself, but not to criticize or “discredit” ordinary soldiers.[31] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok defended restrictions on “discreditation attempts,” arguing that criticism of Russian soldiers of all levels — from soldier to supreme commander — is like shooting them in the back. Kotyenok conceded that some criticism is necessary but said that it must be made carefully and in a limited way. Kotyenok added that Wagner Group representatives have earned the right to their “special opinion” due to their efficient fighting near Bakhmut.[32] Former Russian officer (and avid critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin) Igor Girkin feigned repentance on March 2 and mockingly instructed his users “not” to make statements calling Russian leadership “illiterate, irresponsible mediocrities” and telling them to refer to major failures as victories, offering as an example the “alternative successes” in Vuhledar.
quote:
Key Takeaways
The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a border incursion in Bryansk Oblast, Russia, on March 2 — a claim that Ukrainian officials denied.
The alleged Bryansk incident generated speculations from Russian officials and ultranationalist groups about the Kremlin's response to the situation.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated on March 2 that Germany is negotiating with allies about providing security guarantees to Ukraine but provided no further details on these proposed guarantees.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken briefly spoke with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the G20 summit in New Delhi, India on March 2 about Russia’s suspension of the New Strategic Offensive Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). The Kremlin very probably is weaponizing New START and fears of nuclear escalation in hopes of deterring Western support for Ukraine.
Russian authorities appear to be concerned over a growing loss of leverage in Serbia, which Russia has worked to integrate into the Russian sphere of influence for many years.
Russian ultranationalists continue to debate the appropriateness of criticism of Russian war efforts and to react to proposed increased punishments for “discrediting” the war in Ukraine.
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and offensive operations around Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut, along the western outskirts of Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces appear to have temporarily scaled back efforts to encircle Bakhmut from the southwest as well as from the northeast and may instead be focusing on pressuring Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the city by concentrating on the northeastern offensive.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces downed two Ukrainian UAVs in Crimea.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin announced that the Wagner Group has launched recruiting efforts through Russian sports clubs.
Russian occupation officials denied reports of the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russian territories
Posted on 3/2/23 at 9:23 pm to StormyMcMan
Impossible to look at how Kadryov has changed in the last year and not wonder if he's been poisoned.

Posted on 3/2/23 at 9:32 pm to GOP_Tiger
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