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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:18 pm to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

The plane could probably fly right now from the looks of it.


The report was that the attackers flew drones over the plane and dropped frag grenades onto it. There could be all kinds of little holes on that plane.

We also cannot see the extent of damage to the cockpit, but the initial claim from the Belarussian partisan organization claimed that one grenade hit close to the cockpit. If so, then I think the odds are good that the cockpit is damaged, and very extensive repairs will be needed before this plane goes anywhere.

I think that the photo is confirmation that the plane was indeed hit, and that substantiates the partisans' claims.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:21 pm to
quote:

think that the photo is confirmation that the plane was indeed hit, and that substantiates the partisans' claims.


The plane may very well have been hit, but there is nothing in that photo to indicate any damage to the aircraft.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 12:22 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

How far are those distances?



Using Google Maps to measure distances, the closest spot on that white line to the center of Bakhmut is 18 miles. Some places are more like 25. So, in that sector, Russia has advanced about 20 miles on average in the last year.
Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

@NeilPHauer Lots of reports of a media blackout starting to come into effect here in Donbas and Zaporizhzhye. Also lots of talk about large amounts of Ukrainian soldiers arriving in recent days. Watch this space...


Hoping this is the start of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. I believe a similar blackout happened before the start of Kharkiv.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105921 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:02 pm to
quote:

Hoping this is the start of a Ukrainian counteroffensive. I believe a similar blackout happened before the start of Kharkiv.


What's the weather like? I thought the thaw had set in.
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105921 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:12 pm to
Someone posted a youtube back in the thread talking about the A50. There are only about 10 in service, of which two or three are always down for maintenance. One is permanently forward deployed to Syria. Three are in the Ukraine AO, one each on the North, Central and Southern fronts. They can't conduct air operations or launch missiles without them. It's one of the most critical pieces of military hardware the Russians have. They probably don't have a backup. It has to be airborne if they're going to do anything significant in its sector. If it's sitting there for any length of time it's because it can't fly.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 1:25 pm
Posted by SwampGar
Texas
Member since Jan 2020
1486 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

You chicken shite war hawks are infuriating and stupid.


At least they/we do not resort to saying things like this.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 3:24 pm to
Here's Rybar's latest map of the Bakhmut area. Even if you take its pro-Russian position into consideration, it's easy to understand why Ukrainian troops are likely beginning the process of withdrawing.


Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

What's the weather like? I thought the thaw had set in.



Yes, but that's not going to much of an impact on urban combat in a city like Bakhmut.

EDIT: I have also seen a couple of things suggesting a Ukrainian counter in Bakhmut. It's time to either do that, or withdraw from the city.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 3:27 pm
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42998 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 3:27 pm to
Thxs, that puts things in perspective.
Not very far at all.

quote:

Using Google Maps to measure distances, the closest spot on that white line to the center of Bakhmut is 18 miles. Some places are more like 25. So, in that sector, Russia has advanced about 20 miles on average in the last year.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 3:48 pm to
This is the @DefMon3 map of the Bakhmut area. It doesn't look a whole lot different from Rybar's map.





Posted by Burhead
Member since Dec 2014
2100 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:00 pm to
The rumors of a counterattack around Bakhmut didn't happen. Though a Ukrainian press officer said instead of retreating they are sending reinforcements but I'm with ya'll its time to pull back.
Posted by SteelerBravesDawg
Member since Sep 2020
43337 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:02 pm to


Molasses in January flows faster.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5878 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:10 pm to
Ukraine's military: Additional troops to be sent to Bakhmut

by The Kyiv Independent news desk
February 28, 2023 10:17 pm

Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of Ukraine's Land Forces and Eastern Operational Command, ordered to send more troops to Bakhmut following his trip to the front line on Feb. 25.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported this on Feb. 28 during a TV news marathon.

"Bakhmut has been the epicenter of hostilities for several months now," Maliar said. "The enemy has concentrated its key efforts there because it aims to reach the borders of Donetsk Oblast."

During his visit on Feb. 25, Syrskyi evaluated the condition of combat units in the region and heard concerns and appeals presented by their commanders.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61773 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Ukraine's military: Additional troops to be sent to Bakhmut


I wonder what the reasoning was for not doing this a month ago.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16426 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:11 pm to
Not so much a refinery but where Urals oil is loaded aboard tanker. In fact, on Google maps satellite view, I find no refinery just a very large tank farm and tankers at the docks.

The problem for the US here is that is where crude oil from Kazakhstan is exported. Chevron and Exxon have major operations in Kazakhstan

Edit: There is a small refinery with crude capacity about like Placid in Port Allen which was undergoing modernization in stages. Complexity index of 1.5 compared to most US integrated refineries with complexity of 16-17.
The refinery basically takes easy diesel and gasoline cuts out of crude and turns naphtha into premium gasoline for Euro market the covid shutdown screwed up any exports for them and likely stopped further modernization.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 5:41 pm
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
21147 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:13 pm to
quote:

I wonder what the reasoning was for not doing this a month ago.



Reserve as many Ukrainian troops as possible for Ukraine's spring offensive, which is what the US has been telling Ukraine to do.

I assume that the Pentagon is regularly wargaming Ukraine's spring offensive, and they are what I would call reasonably confident in its success. But every fresh unit that can be used in that offensive increases the odds of success. And, as we've discussed, the outcome of the war will likely hinge on whether it works or not.

Bakhmut is NOT a strategic objective. Whether or not Russia takes it now will not determine the outcome of the war. The Ukrainian spring offensive WILL determine the outcome of the war, so it makes sense to sacrifice Bakhmut to do everything possible to ensure the success of the spring offensive.
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 5:16 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16426 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:28 pm to
There are other photos with damage to fuselage in front of the radar disc/behind cockpit. Also damage to forward 20% of radar disc

Edit: link to satellite photos before and after
LINK
This post was edited on 2/28/23 at 5:50 pm
Posted by Lakeboy7
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2011
28324 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:31 pm to
Some truth in here.

And Bakhmut is a troop rotation not necessarily more new troops.
Posted by LSU7096
Member since May 2004
3039 posts
Posted on 2/28/23 at 5:48 pm to
AMEN. Damn parasitic leeches are majority of NATO members.
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