re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

France, Australia to supply Ukraine with artillery shells

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PARIS (AP) — France and Australia announced Monday plans to jointly produce and send several thousand 155-millimeter artillery shells to Ukraine, starting in the coming weeks.

The multimillion-dollar plan is the latest offer of support for Ukraine by both countries, and comes amid growing appeals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for heavy weaponry and long-term supplies from Western allies nearly a year into Russia’s war on Ukraine.

The joint announcement, made by Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles and French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu, also appeared aimed at sending a signal that the two countries have overcome a damaging dispute over submarines.

Australia secretly jettisoned a $60 billion contract for conventional French submarines in 2021 in favor of a deal for nuclear-powered submarines made by the U.S. and Britain instead, deeply harming French-Australian relations.

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Lecornu said they aim to send the first shells in the first quarter of this year, and that the project is meant to secure a steady supply of shells to Ukraine over time.

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Biden says he won't send F-16 jets to Ukraine. "No," he tells reporters.

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There's a lot of twitter chatter now about this. A propangandist TV crew in Melitopol had the TV presenter raped and her cameraman beat up.

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A group of Kadyrovites in Russia-occupied Melitopol in Zaporizhzhya temporarily attacked a film crew of the Russian propaganda channel NTV, who had come "to cover the course of SVO." The "Akhmat battalion" terrorists raped journalist Olga Zenkova and beat up the cameraman.

The NTV management called on the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation to look into the matter and an official document was sent to the head of the Investigative Committee. MyUkraineis.org received it from its own sources (to see the document, scroll to the end of the news).

The authors of the channel noted that this topic was prohibited to cover in the news in order not to "discredit the army", but the management of the channel decided not to leave this issue on its own.

In the document sent to the Investigative Committee it was indicated that the propagandist Olga Zenkova and the cameraman Artem Yepifanov were in the hotel "Vorontsovsky" in Melitopol, when they were attacked by a group of persons in camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of Akhmat battalion".

"As a result of the attack Yepifanov Artem Sergeevich received injuries of medium severity, which is witnessed by the protocol of examination in Melitopol city hospital ?1. With regard to the reporter Olga Viktorovna Zenkova group of persons also committed violent acts of a sexual nature", - said in an appeal to the Investigative Committee.

The management of the propaganda channel complained that in the "military commandant's office" of Melitopol they refused to open a criminal case.

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In the document sent to the Investigative Committee it was indicated that the propagandist Olga Zenkova and the cameraman Artem Yepifanov were in the hotel "Vorontsovsky" in Melitopol, when they were attacked by a group of persons in camouflage uniforms, who introduced themselves as "fighters of Akhmat battalion".

"As a result of the attack Yepifanov Artem Sergeevich received injuries of medium severity, which is witnessed by the protocol of examination in Melitopol city hospital ?1. With regard to the reporter Olga Viktorovna Zenkova group of persons also committed violent acts of a sexual nature", - said in an appeal to the Investigative Committee.

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Fricking animals

I watched the video again. The first explosion a projectile came from the right and the single, focused flame goes to the left.

Definitely looks like a shaped charge explosion. And I remember seeing a pic on Reddit of a room filled with manned anti tank munitions.

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North Korea is providing military support to the Russian war efforts in Ukraine with 'rockets and missiles' — NATO's secretary general says

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NATO sees Russia preparing for a new offensive, with the aim of capturing all of Ukraine - Stoltenberg

“We see that the Russians are preparing for a new offensive, that they are mobilizing more soldiers, more than 200,000 people, and possibly even more.

That they are actively building up weapons and ammunition. And most importantly, we do not see any signs that President Putin has changed its overall goal of this invasion, which is to control all of Ukraine," Stoltenberg said.

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Ukraine update?? January 30th

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The weather is getting warmer and traversing in the terrain will be come more and more difficult.

Kreminna-Siversk
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Bilohorivka and Yampolivka. I'm closely watching this area, but there are not a lot of news coming out of it.

Bakhmut N
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Rozdolivka, Vasyukivka, Paraskoviivka and Bakhmut. It's worth keeping an eye on if AFU can hold the high ground west of the T0513 road, however losing some ground NW of Krasna Hora is not a big deal.

I do not think the bigger road has been M03 has been in full use for a while. Another ting to look out for is if AFU decide to pull back behind the Bakhmutovka River inside the city. It might be a sing of a pending withdrawal from the city.

Bakhmut S
The AFU repulsed attacks in the area of Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Ozaryanivka. As can be seen, Ru forces have managed to advance along the canal in the forest belt NW of Klishchiivka. Still unclear if AFU lost their fortified positions N of Klishchiivka.

The situation is getting worse in Bakhmut, both of the main supply roads in to the town are now extremely dangerous, to travel. There are a few smaller less suitable roads which might still be safe to use.

If the Ru progress rate keeps up, Ukraine will possibly have to abandon Bakhmut in 2-4 weeks time. It can be prevented or the timeframe might change if AFU manage to stop, revert or slow the RU progress. Take this as a warning to get mentally prepared rather than a prediction.

Vuhledar
No news for this area today. Fighting is ongoing south of Vuhledar, but I don't see any real change. What I'm looking for here are attempts to envelop Vuhledar from the west to cut supplies to the city.

A change in pace might indicate movement along the frontline and a change of tactic. Ru forces have suffered large defeats twice trying to attack Vuhledar head on with some of their best units.

A lot of people say the Russians are stupid, but I disagree. They have adapted well to battlefield changes. I think one major difference between how we define success compared to the Russians is they only are about if they made progress, but we also consider the cost.

Ukraine has just secured some large aid packages, with even more things being discussed at the moment. Their forces now should not be symbolic wins to show the world they can make progress.

I believe the best way for Ukraine to secure future success and preserve offensive potential is to swap to more of an aggressive defense rather than offense.

It seems RuAF are willing to commit their VDV and Naval infantry in the Vulhedar, Bakhmut and Kreminna area. These as well as the wagner cannon fodder have proven during the course of the war to be the most effective. They have also proven to be effective in defense.

If Ukraine now can swap to seek opportunities to do smaller local attacks, especially in the north rather than trying to advance, they could possibly attrit the RU elite forces enough to get in a good position for a spring offensive.

We must not forget, both Ukraine and Russia are actively training and setting up new units. Both sided are largely made up by mobilized personnel with very little training

I believe the deciding factors during the spring/summer will be the level of training and ammunition availability. It will be very important for Ukraine to actually be able to maneuver effectively with the new mechanized equipment provided by the west.

It would be a big advantage for the AFU if the brigades equipped with western IFVs and tanks will be able to conduct offensive operations at night. This is extremely hard and requires a lot of training and it will be interesting to see if the will be able to do it.

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The Situation around Bakhmut is beginning to look increasingly untenable for the Ukrainian Defenders still in the City; Russian Forces are continuing to advance both to the North and South cutting of Supply Routes with an Operational Encirclement looking more likely by the day.

Hopefully plans are already underway to Strategically Withdraw from the City to more Defensible Positions to the West because if not this could be a Disaster in the making for Ukrainian Forces on that Front.

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Politards ... will believe

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It was an ultra-concentrated blast of mRNA vaccine. Why are all these people dying suddenly?

Without going into politics too much he is kind of damned either way.

If he sends too much too quickly he's a war monger and if he doesn't send it quickly enough he's letting people die.

I think the US has had to walk a fine line while gauging Russia's response along with balancing the disposition of the greater NATO alliance and by and large they have gently forced the issue when support has stagnated.

None of this helps those currently in the line of fire or having their country invaded and turned to a wasteland but it could be much worse.

Whether it will be enough is something that will be dissected for the next generation with the benefit of hindsight.

Financial Times

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France has signalled openness to sending fighter jets to Ukraine as western countries weigh the next steps in military assistance to help Kyiv resist Russian attacks.

“By definition, nothing is excluded,” President Emmanuel Macron said at a press conference in The Hague on Monday, adding that he had not received a request for jets from Ukraine.

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Paris has informed other European capitals that the possibility of sending additional weapons systems, including jets, is on the table, according to two officials briefed on the discussions, but a decision is unlikely to be made in the immediate future.

The priority remains to provide air and missile defence systems, they said, and the new push to provide tanks and train Ukrainian crews to use them.

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Defence analysts expect that France would send an older model of its Mirage jets to Ukraine if Macron opted to supply combat aircraft. Manufactured by Dassault Aviation, France had 106 Mirage 2000s in service at the beginning of last year, all of which will be replaced by fifth-generation Rafale jets by 2030.

France retired 14 Mirage 2000-C jets in June, so giving them to Ukraine would not degrade French military capabilities, and it will phase out a further 26 Mirage 2000-5 interceptors over the next few years.

Given that France makes its own jets, there would be no need for third-party approval to export them. Several European armed forces operate F-16s but would require US authorisation to send them to Ukraine. That made French jets a more obvious candidate, one of the European officials said.

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