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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:46 am to cypher
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:46 am to cypher
Over on the PoliBoard, someone asked the question of who is winning the war. I answered his question and felt it bears repeating here. This is my unbiased opinion….
quote:
Ukraine has made some gains in the past few months. But for all intents and purposes, it’s a stalemate now. Neither side is capable of delivering a knockout blow at this time. However, that can change. I believe there are five realistic possibilities in the near future:
1. Ukraine lunches a winter offensive, probably in January. Their goal should be to inflict another serious battlefield defeat on Russia with the goal being gaining leverage to open peace negotiations from a position of strength. The offensive is successful and a favorable peace for Ukraine follows.
2. The Ukrainian offensive fails, the Russians launch a counteroffensive and forces Ukraine to accept a peace favorable to Russia.
3. The Russians preempt the Ukrainians and launch their own offensive first. This buildup on Belarus could be the prelude. This offense either succeeds on its own or forces Ukraine to shift forces north (Ukraine cannot allow the supply lines from Europe to be cut so they will do whatever they can to stop of drive from the north) which then allows Russia to inflict a defeat on Ukraine in the south. Success in either should lead to a peace favorable for Russia.
4. The Russians preempt the Ukrainians, are defeated, and the Ukrainians launch a successful counteroffensive and inflict another serious defeat on Russia. This will most likely lead to a settled peace favorable to Ukraine.
5. The Russians preempt the Ukrainians but their offensive is unsuccessful. However, the Russians inflict enough damage to the Ukrainian army that it’s incapable of launching a counteroffensive. This will most likely result in a continuation of the stalemated war for an unknowable period of time.
(FWIW, I’m a neutral observer of this war and look at it from a purely military standpoint based upon over four decades of deep study of warfare from both a tactical and strategic standpoint. I have no emotional connection to either side)
2
Posted on 12/24/22 at 8:55 am to cypher
Whoa. In Russia, a nation of 143 million, there are currently 16 million active payday loans. Look at this chart -- that number is almost double what it was two years ago.
These are loans that are at 1% interest per day, or 365% per year. That's why you see ads like this one which encourage men to enlist to get away from the thugs those enforce payment of those debts with violence.
Russian society simply cannot handle a significant economic downturn right now, as there are already a number of ways that it sits upon the brink.
This is from an interesting twitter thread (in Polish, but you can translate): LINK
These are loans that are at 1% interest per day, or 365% per year. That's why you see ads like this one which encourage men to enlist to get away from the thugs those enforce payment of those debts with violence.
Russian society simply cannot handle a significant economic downturn right now, as there are already a number of ways that it sits upon the brink.
This is from an interesting twitter thread (in Polish, but you can translate): LINK
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:03 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Whoa. In Russia, a nation of 143 million, there are currently 16 million active payday loans. Look at this chart -- that number is almost double what it was two years ago.
With a lot of payment lapses, banks are folding right and left. Lots of people officially employed but without pay until factories can reopen
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:22 am to Chromdome35
quote:
The MIC has really done a good job of painting Russia as the big bad boogey man.
it has always been a glaring fact that they had far more men and weapons than the West. And, until the fall of the USSR the extreme corruption and theft that plaques the Russian military now was likely not nearly as debilitating as it has been in recent years. The West has always had to place their hope on superior weapons and battlefield technologies. Furthermore, I can't recall a single 'head to head' proxy test such as this since WW II. So the MIC did a very competant job over the years, thankfully
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:40 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
I answered his question and felt it bears repeating here.
And then went back over there to cry because two people downvoted you here.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:43 am to notiger1997
quote:
And then went back over there to cry because two people downvoted you here.
No. I went over there to laugh about it. Downvotes don’t bother me. But I do find it pathetic when no counterpoint is offered.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:44 am to Redstick Tigah
quote:
Furthermore, I can't recall a single 'head to head' proxy test such as this since WW II. So the MIC did a very competant job over the years, thankfully
Korean War
Vietnam War
Soviet Afghanistan War
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:44 am to Darth_Vader
It's all good dude, just messing with you.
I thought of you yesterday. Went into a hobby store to get my dad a simple model airplane and they had a lot of tanks and WWII looking models in this tiny little shop.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:50 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
No. I went over there to laugh about it. Downvotes don’t bother me. But I do find it pathetic when no counterpoint is offered.
You want someone to argue with you? Why?
Posted on 12/24/22 at 9:57 am to TBoy
quote:
You want someone to argue with you?
No. If you disagree with my thoughts then offer your reasons why they’re wrong and what you think is to come. Then we can discuss and debate the matter. That’s kinda the purpose of a message board. That is unless you want to live in an echo chamber where everyone participates in mental masturbation with one another.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 10:02 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 10:43 am to Darth_Vader
I think your scenarios are spot on, The overall outcome depends on what happens next.
ETA: I think any Russian offensive in the south will fail eventually, probably with large casualty rates on both sides, possibly causing a setback on any Ukrainian offensive.
If Russia attacks from the north again...that will be a massive Russian cluster frick.
ETA: I think any Russian offensive in the south will fail eventually, probably with large casualty rates on both sides, possibly causing a setback on any Ukrainian offensive.
If Russia attacks from the north again...that will be a massive Russian cluster frick.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 10:47 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:02 am to Chromdome35
quote:
ETA: I think any Russian offensive in the south will fail eventually, probably with large casualty rates on both sides, possibly causing a setback on any Ukrainian offensive.
Considering this is where the mass of the best Ukrainian forces are concentrated, I agree. The one caveat to this is the buildup of Russian forces in Belarus. I think the Russian strategy would be to launch an offensive there to (1) cut Ukraine’s supply lines from Europe and (2) force Ukraine to redeploy forces there from the south, thus making possible subsequent Russian offensives there. Basically, I think Russia is trying to force Ukraine to spread their forces to the breaking point. Considering the state of both armies, it’s the move that makes the most sense for Russia to make. Will it work? That remains to be seen.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:08 am to Darth_Vader
What’s there to argue about?… peace terms favorable to Ukraine, peace terms favorable to Russia, or continued stalemate.
Think you’ve got it all covered.
Think you’ve got it all covered.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:09 am to Darth_Vader
you are taking a couple of downvotes really hard
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:10 am to Darth_Vader
Is the reports of Russians in Belarus a feint or is it the real thing? That’s the million dollar question.
My guess is it’s a feint, but I don’t profess to know. I do believe the Ukranians know one way or another.
My guess is it’s a feint, but I don’t profess to know. I do believe the Ukranians know one way or another.
This post was edited on 12/24/22 at 11:17 am
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:11 am to WestCoastAg
You missed the point entirely. All I ask is if you disagree then explain your reasons and what those reasons are based on. I welcome disagreement and discussion.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:13 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
That is unless you want to live in an echo chamber where everyone participates in mental masturbation with one another.
Literally what you just did by retreating to your Poliboard safe space.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:13 am to doubleb
quote:
Is the reports of Russians in Belarus a grunt or is it the real thing? That’s the million dollar question.
That’s a great question. The reports I’ve seen is of a concentration of Russia’s most modern tank forces there. But even if that’s true, are they any more well trained in combined arms operations than what we’ve seen thus far? If not, they’ll fare no better than previous Russian offensives.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:16 am to mattz1122
quote:
Literally what you just did by retreating to your Poliboard safe space.
You’d have a point if I had not been in this thread posting about this war.
But I have. So you have no point.
Posted on 12/24/22 at 11:18 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
That’s a great question. The reports I’ve seen is of a concentration of Russia’s most modern tank forces there. But even if that’s true, are they any more well trained in combined arms operations than what we’ve seen thus far? If not, they’ll fare no better than previous Russian offensives.
Exactly, the Russian army hadn’t been able to execute any complicated strategic moves. Maybe
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