re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Back up, so Ukraine accidentally(I hope) whacks two Polish civilians with their AA and it gets them in tighter with Poland?

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You don't seem to understand that the fundamental reason that two Poles died was that Russia was firing cruise missiles near the Polish border and endangering Polish lives.

Ukraine didn't just randomly decide to fire air defense rockets. So, yeah, the Polish people will ultimately blame Russia for the deaths of their citizens.

But, obviously, this will now not trigger any kind of military response from Poland or from NATO.

Nov 15th ISW Update

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Russian forces conducted the largest set of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the start of the war.

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The Russian military likely used a substantial portion of its remaining high-precision weapon systems in the coordinated missile strikes on November 15

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Damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is unlikely to break Ukrainians’ spirit, however, given Ukraine’s improving air defenses and recent ground victories in Kherson Oblast

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Polish officials announced that a likely “Russian-made missile” landed in Poland within six kilometers of the international border with Ukraine. Western officials have yet to make definitive statements regarding the incident

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The Kremlin had prepared today’s massive missile campaign before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented his 10-point peace proposal at the G20 summit on November 15.

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The Kremlin’s official narrative surrounding the G20 summit further confirms Russia’s disinterest in the prospect of peace negotiations with Ukraine.

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Russian military commanders reportedly ignored existing plans for offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction and committed poorly trained reinforcements to costly assaults on Pavlivka out of impatience

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The high costs associated with the Russian offensive push on Pavlivka continue to generate criticism of Russian military leadership

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Russians are increasingly turning to various platforms on social media to express their dissatisfaction with mobilization problems, a phenomenon that has the ingredients to ignite organized online-based movements in Russia.

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Russian officials continued to set conditions to force the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to recognize Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and thereby de facto recognize the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces conducted the largest set of missile strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure since the start of the war, likely using a substantial portion of their remaining high-precision weapon systems.

Polish officials announced that a likely “Russian-made missile” landed in Poland within six kilometers of the international border with Ukraine.

Russian military commanders reportedly ignored existing plans for offensive operations in the Vuhledar direction and committed poorly trained reinforcements to costly assaults on Pavlivka out of impatience, generating continued criticism of Russian military leadership.

Russian officials continued to set conditions to force the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to recognize Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and thereby de facto recognize the Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine.

Russians are increasingly turning to various platforms on social media to express their dissatisfaction with mobilization problems, which could ignite organized online anti-war movements in Russia.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensives in the direction of Svatove and Kreminna, and Ukrainian forces continued targeting Russian logistics to the rear of Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Vuhledar.

Premature reports of Ukrainian forces capturing territory on the left bank of the Dnipro River provoked backlash in the Russian information space.

Russian logistics routes from Crimea into southern Ukraine are likely highly degraded.

Russian forces are continuing to supply their diminishing supplies with Belarusian military equipment.

Russian officials continued to minimize the role of proxy officials in occupied territories in favor of Russian officials.

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The head of Belarus' Border Committee complained this morning about Ukraine's hostile actions: "They have mined the border area, blown up almost all the bridges in the Gomel and Mozyr regions. Now they are destroying all the bridges in the Volyn region. All roads are impassable."

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Damn Ukrainians making it hard for us
LINK

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#Polish President #Duda emphasized that there had been an accident, as a result of which an air defense missile fell on Polish territory

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Yesterday's incident with the fall of the rocket is not a targeted attack on Poland. We have no evidence that the missile was launched by Russia," - Polish President Andrzej Duda

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they need to figure out who's missile it is pretty quickly.

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After I posted that I went on Twitter and saw even the Poles are saying it was an air defense missle now and are no longer calling from Article 4.

Germany's chancellor still blames Russia regardless of who fired the missle

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 November 2022

The Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River is the site of major hydroelectric power plant as well as providing one of the two main road crossing points of the lower reaches of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian precision strikes have targeted the site since August, successfully disrupting Russian military resupply.

On 11 November 2022 the site suffered further significant damage, almost certainly because of controlled demolitions by retreating Russian forces. This was likely done in an attempt to hinder future Ukrainian advances.

Three spans of both the road and rail bridges on the northern end of the dam were destroyed, rendering the crossings impassable. However, the three spillway gates below this section of the dam remained largely intact. The current level of damage is unlikely to result in major flooding downstream.

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Is nato going to attack Ukraine now for attacking Poland?

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Russia should be afraid of Poland by itself. However, if you had read the last page or two, no this isn't happening.

Yes this absolutely should bring Ukraine and Poland closer and probably get Poland to expand assistance. Their citizens died because of Russia.

Funny part is even when the reports first came out and it was assumed Russian, most everyone said it was an accident by the Russians because they wouldn't be that stupid

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And they have done this fairly quickly. A Russian made air defense missile fired by Ukraine at some of the 100+ missiles fired by Russia went awry after missing its target.

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Where was the missile fired from?