re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I've been trying to figure out what's happening on the Svatove - Kreminna line, and it doesn't really make sense to me. After the Ukrainian capture of Lyman, I thought that Ukraine would be able to press the attack before Russia could really create good defenses. That didn't happen. In fact, Russia temporarily retook a couple of towns west of Kreminna.

It looks, though, like Ukraine has regained the initiative, and should be able to pressure Svatove soon.

From Ukraine's governor of Luhansk Oblast, @serhey_hayday:

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Thanks to successful actions, our troops pushed the enemy out of the settlements of Karmazynivka, Myasozharivka and Nevske in the #Luhansk oblast #UkraineRussiaWar

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These towns are to the northwest and southwest of Svatove.

Home heating oil is not legal over the road. Diesel is not really that low but is lowest since 2019 and 2014. Always lower before then

Home heating oil stocks have dropped like a rock in 2006 and has been on a downward gradual slope ever since. Just not as much used as decades ago.

Home heating oil is the same as for farm tractors and construction equipment, under 500 PPM sulfur but not ULSD.

Shipments of Arctic diesel should be shipping from the Gulf Coast to Canada soon. That is merely diesel with some naphtha pumped ontop and blended with ship's pumps during voyage to Canada.

Edit - this is all about total supply not days of supply. IF days of supply has eroded this much that means that usage is WAYYY up

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Edit - this is all about total supply not days of supply. IF days of supply has eroded this much that means that usage is WAYYY up

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According the the article it is. Would make sense to me with the snap back of demand coming out of the covid lockdowns + multiple stimulus packages. Still seems like a problem to me given tight supply and current price.

Let’s say 3 months from now Ukraine/Russia does somehow get out of hand or, probably less likely China/Taiwan gets sideways does this not present a strategic problem? Again, in the context of being told we’re on a war footing.

For the record, I’m not projecting this or saying it’s likely, but possible with current activity + Russian banter should it come to fruition. Xi of course was just granted the 3rd term and had Hu Jintao removed from congress. Whether we think it’s strategically sound for them to move on Taiwan now matters much less than whether Xi does. We’ve seen this with Putin.

So the west is trying to find a peaceful solution while putin has no interest? Who would have thought

Bellingcat (w/partners) is out with an interesting new piece where Christo Grozev again used his method of scouring old military training records then using cell phone metadata to identify particular individuals within the Russian security state running ops. He's done this before to ID the Novichok poisoners of Navalny and the Skripals, Russians involved in the downing of MH-17 and other GRU officers involved in the Montenegro coups and Central European sabotage.

Here, they identified Russians who were trained in missile tech/engineering in their military institutes and using black market and open-source data to find their work addresses and phone contacts and correlating contacts with actual cruise missile strikes in Ukraine.

It's a long and complicated story, but would also be of interest to anyone interested in how they tracked the GRU on those other cases too.

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Following a six-month-long investigation, Bellingcat and its investigative partners The Insider and Der Spiegel were able to discover a hitherto secretive group of dozens of military engineers with an educational and professional background in missile programming. Phone metadata shows contacts between these individuals and their superiors spiked shortly before many of the high-precision Russian cruise missile strikes that have killed hundreds and deprived millions in Ukraine of access to electricity and heating. The group, which works from two locations – one at the Ministry of Defence headquarters in Moscow and another at the Admiralty headquarters in St. Petersburg – is buried deep within the Russian Armed Forces’ vast “Main Computation Centre of the General Staff”, often abbreviated as ??? (GVC).

Most members identified by Bellingcat and partners are young men and women, including one husband-and-wife couple, many with IT and even computer-gaming backgrounds. Some also worked at Russia’s military command centre in Damascus in the period between 2016 and 2021, a timeframe during which Russia deployed cruise missiles in Syria. Others are recipients of various military awards, including from Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

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LINK

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WaPo reporting 30 progressive House Democrats (CPC) have sent a letter to Biden asking him to move in a diplomatic direction and promote direct talks with Russia. Purportedly the first cracks on the D side.

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And they will vote against military aid to continue? No.

Considering RT is their news that they package for western audiences, id assume they really dont want shite like that getting out

As opposed to their own internal news. I doubt they give a shite and if anything, promote that type of stuff

But not on their channel that is put together for western audiences

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Basically, the Squad is saying that if Biden weren't the President, they would be against any aid to Ukraine.

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So the Poli Board and the Squad are on the same side.

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How’s he out of his lane? By wanting to get paid like everyone else is for the service he’s been providing Ukraine for free since the air started?

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By offering a peace plan that was retarded, then communicating openly with Medvedev like it was no big deal?