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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:39 pm to
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

Tactially, if Russia is forced across to the left bank of the river, they absolutely should blow the dam.



If they do that then the have no hope of holding the rest of the Kherson Oblast or Crimea. The North Crimean Canal not only provides water to the Crimean peninsula but also the majority of the Kherson Oblast on the eastern side of the Dnieper River. Blow the dam and the reservoir that the NCC draws its water from gets drained. It would then take years to refill the reservoir enough for the NCC to draw water again. So it might make tactical sense in the short term but in the long term it would be a strategic disaster so I fully expect the Russians to blow the dam.




























FWIW per my sauce(s) in Ukrainian intelligence. The Ukrainians had planned to have the damn rigged to blow before the invasion and the only thing that kept them from doing so when the Russians invaded was the commander of the Ukrainian defenses in Kherson being a traitor and not issuing the orders to place the explosives in the dam.
Posted by jeffsdad
Member since Mar 2007
24902 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:39 pm to
There arnt any updated maps anywhere?
Posted by OleWar
Troy H. Middleton Library
Member since Mar 2008
5828 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:43 pm to
quote:

Wrong question to ask considering Putin and his generals claims to more than Ukraine


Good. Those countries can form an alliance and take on Russia by themselves.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:48 pm to
So who do we blame If and when the dam is blown?

The Russians whom it would hurt but they’re stupid so they’ll do it anyways or the Ukrainians who already planned to do it and it would help them?
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

There arnt any updated maps anywhere?




The only significant changes are in the Kherson area, and no one is confirming that stuff yet. It's still mostly RUMINT.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20975 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 8:02 pm to
quote:

So who do we blame If and when the dam is blown?


You will know based on when the dam is blown. If, tomorrow, Ukrainians race south along the Dnipro to the city of Beryslav, and the dam gets blown with well over 10,000 Russian troops trapped in the wrong side of the river, then it would be reasonable to assume that Ukraine did it to cut those troops off completely and guarantee their quick defeat.

If Russia conducts a fighting retreat and holds the dam until they get a large number of troops across the river, and then the dam blows, then you can conclude that Russia likely did it to cover its retreat and prevent Ukraine from bridging the river.
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

So who do we blame If and when the dam is blown?



The Russians because they are the ones who actually placed the explosives and pressed the detonator (assuming it happens).
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45582 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 8:07 pm to
quote:

There arnt any updated maps anywhere?



No the Ukrainians have gone silent to the point that even my sauce(s) are not giving me anything new. The Russian milbloggers and telegram channels that were semi-honest have gone full Moscow propaganda on us so their information is no longer remotely trustworthy.
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
37341 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

So who do we blame If and when the dam is blown?

I just checked with the Poli Board. The answer is Biden. No tactical advantage but he goaded Russia into invading so...
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 8:59 pm to




ETA: the ISW posts didn’t indicate much change in any other front. East had limited activity. Minor skirmishes in the north.
This post was edited on 10/22/22 at 9:00 pm
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:03 pm to
It's really slow lately, all the map makers appear to be on vacation
Posted by mmcgrath
Indianapolis
Member since Feb 2010
37341 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

Wait do you idiots really think Yougayne has taken back Xerson city?! Get used to this idea: Xerson City is Russia, forever.
Just bookmarking this. BKR may have dream cast somethin into reality again like he did when the Crimean bridge got hit.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

It's really slow lately, all the map makers appear to be on vacation


Low cloud ceilings over southern Ukraine the past couple days have probably hindered air support and targeting from ISR assets against the Russians.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:25 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing to conduct delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective.


quote:

Russian occupation authorities ordered the forcible “evacuation” of civilians from Kherson City on October 22


quote:

Russian forces conducted massive missile and drone attacks to degrade Ukrainian energy infrastructure in nine oblasts on October 22.


quote:

Ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure are extraordinarily unlikely to erode the Ukrainian will to fight but will increasingly pose an economic and humanitarian challenge for Ukraine as temperatures drop...
The Russian Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nevenzya, claimed on October 22 that Russian drones are only hitting civilian targets in Ukraine because Ukrainian defensive fire requires the drones to change course, a bizarre admission of culpability


quote:

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to create rifts within the Russian government by publicizing the so-called “Wagner line” of fortifications in northeastern Ukraine, which appears misaligned with Kremlin-led narratives on the course of the war.


quote:

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued large-scale strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Ongoing strikes are unlikely to erode Ukrainian will to fight but will pose economic and humanitarian challenges throughout the winter.

Russian forces continued to withdraw from western Kherson Oblast while preparing for delaying actions that will likely be only partially effective.

Occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast ordered civilians to evacuate east on October 21. Evacuations from Kherson City will support likely Russian plans to blow up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Plant (HPP) dam to cover their withdrawal.

Prigozhin-led efforts to build a “Wagner Line” of defensive fortifications extend through central Luhansk Oblast and in limited capacity into Belgorod.

Prigozhin’s efforts and messaging, including the creation of the “Wagner Line,” are increasingly out of line with Kremlin rhetoric and are critical of what Prigozhin claims are slow-moving “bureaucrat-enemies.” Such activism endears Prigozhin to Russian nationalists, who are dissatisfied with limited Kremlin escalation and MoD disorganization.

Russian sources reported Ukrainian counteroffensives in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on October 22.
Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks with no confirmed advances to regain lost territory in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk oblasts on October 22.

Crimean occupation authorities banned filming of infrastructure and military logistics likely due to continued Ukrainian strikes targeting Russian supply hubs and lines.

ISW identified additional reports on October 22 that Russian mobilization has not met force generation goals and will likely continue in alternative forms.

Russian and occupation administration officials continued to forcibly relocate residents in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine as of October 22.

Russian and occupation officials continued to restrict the movement of residents living in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine and increase the checkpoint controls as of October 22.
Posted by BrianKellyRespecter
Member since Aug 2022
534 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:31 pm to
Understand something very clearly - as a matter of Russian law, Xerson City is Russia. Russia is not preparing to leave the area nor could it. There is no legal or military mechanism through which Russia leaves Xerson City. Yougayne will have to take the city back by force, if it can. To date, it has not proven to have the ability to do so.
This post was edited on 10/22/22 at 9:32 pm
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:37 pm to
Bruh nobody gaf about Russian law on Ukrainian soil.

Certainly looks like the Russians are preparing to leave Kherson as they continue to evacuate civilians and military equipment.
Posted by BrianKellyRespecter
Member since Aug 2022
534 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 9:40 pm to
quote:

nobody gaf about Russian law on Ukrainian soil.


The Russians do, which is who we’re talking about. You idiots have been wishcasting a Russian withdrawal from Xerson City for a long time. I am telling you, I am sure, it is not going to happen.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15773 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 10:53 pm to
quote:

Good. Those countries can form an alliance and take on Russia by themselves.


We have a treaty ratified by the Senate with them.

Your cost of living would go up as we lose complete respect globally and countries would stop trading with us.
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 10:56 pm to
quote:

Your cost of living would go up as we lose complete respect globally and countries would stop trading with us.


That must be why no one is trading with China. They’re not defending Ukraine.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15773 posts
Posted on 10/22/22 at 10:56 pm to
Just like you were certain of a Ukrainian offensive towards Melitipol against the orcs? Got it
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