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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:11 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:11 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
should undermine any notion that Russia is going to negotiate in good-faith.
But that's the thing: Ukraine already doesn't trust Putin to negotiate in good faith. He's already broken every promise that he ever made to them.
So, Ukraine isn't going to negotiate. They are going to fight until they win.
3
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:12 pm to joemuggs
quote:
The you know Musk did not propose "Ukraine recognise Russia’s annexation of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia."
He might as well have since what he proposed was totally infeasible.
My sentiment. A "vote" in areas where massive displacement has already occurred is a joke.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:16 pm to joemuggs
quote:Like 'totally'?
what he proposed was totally infeasible.
This is what Ukraine was 'totally' ready to do in April until the US/UK intervened and scuttled the negotiations.
quote:
“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”
LINK
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But that's the thing: Ukraine already doesn't trust Putin to negotiate in good faith. He's already broken every promise that he ever made to them.
So, Ukraine isn't going to negotiate. They are going to fight until they win.
I definitely understand that. The average person who sees Musk's proposal (or any proposed peace) doesn't understand that and then wonders why no one on the Ukrainian side is pushing for peace. No one seems to remark at all about Russia's tremendous bad-faith with Macron, or how that and the proposed peace plan from early April might be connected. It's always surface level logic for the casual observer, which is annoying, as Russia always has talking points ready which are easily repeatable and make it into the Western press with no examination at all. Musk's proposal is just going to be the latest medium by which Russia will push the 'West doesn't want peace' line, which people will uncritically eat up without a second thought.
The right thing to do for the Ukrainians is to keep gaining leverage for possible negotiations at some point in the future. In the direct sense, that means they have to continue to have battlefield success.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:18 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Our occupation informs our views of "negotiations" which I think puts us at odds with the general public sometimes. We spend a lot of time adjusting expectations which is rarely taken well.
For a negotiated peace to occur in the short term both sides will have to give up something they want whether or not they think it is "right". Where the pieces sit on the board at the current time Crimea is not something that Russia would give up now, period. If Crimea is Ukraine's red line peace is not around the corner. Russia is a long way from giving that up.
Ukraine's red line isn't limited to Crimea anymore. They have since decreed that negotiation is impossible with Putin at the helm. The kinda scalp they're asking for now lets you know they're in it to win it.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:21 pm to SlimTigerSlap
quote:which is understandable and fine. My suggestion wasnt in the vein of something that "should" happen. Just something that could happen in the even that both sides were in a place to negotiate
The kinda scalp they're asking for now lets you know they're in it to win it.
I dont think either are at this point and I completely understand why at this point Ukraine isnt in a place to accept any kind of concessions at all
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:25 pm to joemuggs
quote:
It was illegally occupied by Russia no one in the west recognized that (not sure what Chinas thoughts on it were). Are you also suggesting Luhansk and Donetsk are now permanently Russian? they've been "Russian" by your definition since 2014 also? Saying we can go back to February but not 2014 is nonsensical this has been an on going conflict since then, just largely ignored by the world.
To be honest on this point, 2014 would be the internationally accepted status quo. Just to put it in perspective let's change a few words
quote:
It was illegally occupied by Morocco no one in the west recognized that (not sure what Chinas thoughts on it were). Are you also suggesting Western Sahara are now permanently Moroccan? they've been "Moroccan" by your definition since 1975 also? Saying we can go back to February but not 1975 is nonsensical this has been an on going conflict since then, just largely ignored by the world.
This post was edited on 10/11/22 at 1:27 pm
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:25 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”
Please for the love of god think about the implications of this. Think it through.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:31 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
This is what Ukraine was 'totally' ready to do in April until the US/UK intervened and scuttled the negotiations.
The situation is very different today than it was in April. AND that agreement ... which didn't happen so obviously there wasn't complete agreement ... is only talking about the areas RU occupied before February 24th 2022.
It also bares repeating that these areas were allowed to vote in reasonably free and fair elections within the last 30 years and they all OVERWHELMINGLY (+80%) voted to join Ukraine (the exception would be in crimea where the vote was for Ukraine but it was close). In the most resent free and fair elections in Ukraine Zelenskyy (pro-west and procieved by RU as anti Russian) won every region of the country easily (this is before his heroics of this year).
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:They have already attempted to negotiate. This war would be over except for our scuttling of those talks.
So, Ukraine isn't going to negotiate. They are going to fight until they win.
If Ukraine defines a "win" as something better than terms which they left on the table in April, they're in for a pile of death and disappointment.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:36 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
This war would be over except for our scuttling of those talks.
We did not scuttle talks. That's a blatant falsehood.
Edit:. This kind of anti-American filth really makes me angry. When you pretend that the US is controlling Ukraine like a puppet and promote the absurd Russian talking points that the US is some kind of imperialist way, you just expose yourself as someone who hates his country.
This post was edited on 10/11/22 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:39 pm to joemuggs
quote:and?
The situation is very different today than it was in April. AND that agreement ... which didn't happen so obviously there wasn't complete agreement ... is only talking about the areas RU occupied before February 24th 2022.
If Ukraine could accept those terms now, would they? Unfortunately it's likely now that Russia wouldn't.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:39 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
They have already attempted to negotiate. This war would be over except for our scuttling of those talks.
You know that how?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:40 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
They have already attempted to negotiate. This war would be over except for our scuttling of those talks.
Except it wouldn't.
quote:
If Ukraine defines a "win" as something better than terms which they left on the table in April, they're in for a pile of death and disappointment.
If it was up to you, they wouldn't have gained Kharkiv. Since you brought this up the last time, they've pushed past the P79 into Luhansk Oblast itself and have made continued progress along the M14. They've also made gains from the Northwest pushing south along the Dniper towards Kherson.
For some reason, the only thing that matters to you is the early Russian gains, and not Ukrainian successes since April, which have been significant. It's some pained logic which privileges short-term peace for no real reason.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
For fricks sake. This thread is a total shite show again. LOL
For you folks that follow this closely, what is the hold up with Ukraine not making another big push? It seemed they went through several areas very easily last week.
For you folks that follow this closely, what is the hold up with Ukraine not making another big push? It seemed they went through several areas very easily last week.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:42 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
If Ukraine could accept those terms now, would they? Unfortunately it's likely now that Russia wouldn't.
What are you talking about? Ukraine has had considerable battlefield success since then. Have you followed the war closely at all?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:43 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
If Ukraine could accept those terms now, would they? Unfortunately it's likely now that Russia wouldn't.
Are you aware of what's happening in Ukraine right now?
25k Russian soldiers cut off from supplies in Kherson? A crumbling eastern defensive line? Ukraine retaking huge swathes of land on a daily basis?
Russia will be lucky to keep any gains that they've made thus far.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 1:44 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
They have already attempted to negotiate. This war would be over except for our scuttling of those talks.
Lmao
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