re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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This campaign assessment special edition focuses on Russian domestic responses to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion on October 9 and changes within the Russian chain of command. Ukrainian forces continued to make advances towards Svatove-Kreminna highway on October 9. Those developments are summarized briefly and will be covered in more detail tomorrow.

The attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge, coupled with recent Russian military failures and partial mobilization, is generating direct criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin from the Russian pro-war nationalist community

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These critiques from the pro-war camp may indicate rising doubts about Putin’s ability to deliver on his promised goal of “denazifying” Ukraine and may undermine Putin’s appeal within his core constituency.

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Other Russian nationalists, propagandists, and proxy officials are blaming security services and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), a phenomenon that can undermine Putin’s regime in the long term.

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The perception of the trajectory of the war and of Ukrainian capabilities is changing as well, and Russians are undergoing a rude awakening

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Russian military retaliate for the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion by regaining the initiative on the battlefield and resuming the missile campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure

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Putin is continuing to shuffle his senior military commanders, likely to deflect blame from himself and to regenerate enthusiasm in the extremist pro-war community.

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The Russian pro-war nationalist community greeted Surovikin’s appointment with irrational enthusiasm

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The pro-war community is relying on a belief that Surovikin’s reputed “toughness” will suffice to change the trajectory of the war

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Prigozhin gave interviews that appear to confirm Western and Russian insider reports of fragmentation of the Kremlin and potential purges.

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Putin cannot do the one thing his hardline constituency demands—win the war

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Escalation, either conventional or nuclear, cannot solve Putin’s problems.

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Key inflection in ongoing military operations on October 9:

Ukrainian forces continued to advance east of the Oskil Rver in the direction of Luhansk Oblast and have entered Stel’makhivka (about 18km west of Svatove).[27] Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Burdaka on the Kharkiv Oblast-Russian border, and Terny northeast of Lyman.[28]

Russian sources reported that Russian forces attempted to attack in the direction of Ternovi Pody (approximately 30km northwest of Kherson City)[29] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces continued to target newly liberated settlements in northern Kherson Oblast with artillery, MLRS, and aviation.[30]

Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces repelled over 30 attacks in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.[31] Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault southwest of Donetsk City.[32]

Russian forces targeted residential areas of Zaporizhzhia City with cruise missiles.[33]

A Russian milblogger accused North Ossetia and Vladikavkaz of failing to fulfill mobilization orders due to carelessness and the personal interests of regional officials.[34]

Ukrainian sources reported that Russian occupation authorities are moving their families from Kherson Oblast to Crimea, and from Starobilsk to Luhansk City.[35]

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Three missiles hit Kyiv today. Hit a university, a park, and intersection.

(no message)

Also Odesa and Kharkiv

The conversations I had yesterday spoke to the response from Putin and the new military command for Russia. The retaliation for the bridge is believed to be muted. Putin has run out of good options. Iran has sold Russia a few missiles which have been used to target civilians and infrastructure. Belarus talking good game with 500000 troops if needed but in actuality there will be a coup quickly that will remove Luka. Todays response will satisfy no one in Kremlin especially with 2/3rds of missiles shot down. Talks in Turkey are a sign of just how screwed RU and GRU and FSB are right now, how Red Guard Sp. were slaughtered in Lymon is indicative of what this special operation has turned into. These losses for Russia are truly generational in scope which makes Putin a cornered dog. The folks that I know are trying to ascertain whether talks in Turkey are in reality a pause before Russias last spasm of war or something else. Weird back channelling going on the bridge op seems to have really changed dynamic. Putin won’t survive practically if that bridge is severed. I’m not sure if humiliation is the right word but it’s loss may push his autistic brain to understanding his time is over. There has been a time where Putin stepped back while controlling Medvedev and people I know, who know are wondering if that isn’t the kind of arrangement he will try and make in Turkey. All of this is to say is the present moment where Putin feels that he can bargain his way out? Or is this a pause while he considers his options? He can’t expect too much more from fellow pariah states, Iran is experiencing crazy opposition from 2/3rds of their society at the moment in one shape or another(tacit or overt) N Korea is due for another famine or pandemic wave…btw grain shipments out of Ukraine have exceeded expectations…new military command is from Syria but way different circumstances ie if chems/bio used America will immediately supply Mid and long range arms or reveal what is already in place. Also air superiority simply isn’t there for Russia. Putin has humiliated FSB, angered GRU, destroyed military capacity of RU reduced Russian standing in the world, weakened Luka, weaker satellite states, expanded NATO and will probably lose a war outright to Ukraine. The last thing he has done is made Biden appear like a competent, Reagan era Cold War master strategist. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I love many aspects of Russia, the people generally are warm and welcoming, when they are your friends they let you know it, they have a long rich history of being fricked by their leaders and dying in demographically catastrophic ways. Putin may at the end of this war, simply because of vanity go down in Russian history as the biggest assclown of them all. ETA watch in the coming days for more smoking accidents to happen.

Good to see some military information here after 4 pages of sewage brought in from the political board "just to see if it can make traction". Hadn't heard from Chrome in a while.

British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 October 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Ukrainian offensive operations continue to place pressure on Russian forces both in the north-east and in Kherson Oblast in the south. However, Russia continues to give high priority to its own offensive operations in the central Donbas sector, especially near the town of Bakhmut.

Over the last week Russian forces have advanced up to 2km towards the town on two axes, coming closer to breaking into Bakhmut, which has suffered very extensive damage from shelling. These forces have likely included Wagner private military company units, including personnel recently recruited from Russian prisons.

Russia's continued efforts to progress its grinding Donbas offensive, in the face of serious threats on its operational flanks, highlight the imperative to deliver operational success while also underlining the inflexible operational design which has undermined its plans thus far.

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it is more than ever in the USA.

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Negative.

US oil production is down 10% from the 2019 highs.

Sure, but maybe you should check yourself and not use pundit talking points. As I stated considering the over 2 million BPD of stripper wells lost due "Two Weeks to Flatten the Curve" which ended up being more.

Now subtract just 2 million BPD from 2019 high and it will be less than today.

Learn how to read. Wells are being drilled like a mofo in Texas.