re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I know they're saying the explosion came from that truck, but it looks to me like the explosion originated from the water and started on the outside of the bridge.

Minimum of three civilians killed in Ukraine terrorist attack on Crimea bridge. Criminal Kiev regime will lose.

The timing of the strike seems poor. General mud is beginning to take over the battlefield and will likely frustrate any further Ukrainian offenses until the freeze. In the meantime, the Russians will have had two months to complete repairs.

It will prevent the Russians from massing mobilized forces in Kherson but consider the gains Ukraine could have made in Kherson if this attack had come in August. Bah.

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British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 8 October 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE

Following continued battlefield setbacks for Russia over the last two weeks, increasingly diverse actors within the Russian system have joined voices in criticism of the Russian MOD leadership. Critics have included Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, Wagner Group private military company owner Yevgeny Prigozhin, state-approved TV presenters, pop stars, and an increasingly vocal community of ultra-nationalistic military bloggers.

Kadyrov and Prigozhin are likely being perceived as informal figure heads of a 'pro-war' bloc whose criticism hinges on arguments for greater state commitment and willingness to escalate. Both likely achieve some credibility based on the significant deployment of both Chechen and Wagner combat units on the ground.

The criticism remains focused at the military high command, rather than senior political leadership, but it does represent a trend of public voicing of dissent against the Russian establishment which is being at least partly tolerated and which will likely be hard to reverse.

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The rail bridge not going down is a disappointment though because once they get that train moved they will have relatively minor reasons to put it back in action. I would have eager the rail bridge go down than the car span of it but still a damn good start. I’d expect the job tries to get finished on the railway bridge but Russia is going to have security crawling all over it for a while so it will have to come from the air by missile or aviation.

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The rail sections should be screwed up good due heat from fire that will warp concrete. The steel lose strength. Emergency repairs can be made but my guess rail is down for at least a month. Some steel sections can be fabricated to replace the road deck sections similar to I-10 causeway over Escambia Bay from Pensacola to Pace Florida.

The West to East side might still be usable as a two lane highway.

Underwater drones that surfaces before detonating is my gut feeling. Bridges aren’t designed to resist force from below.

What’s interesting to me is maybe one of the drones may have been out of position and not under the other vehicle lane of travel. Which is why one lane is not cut. Or maybe it was in position but it just did not cause to fall in the water.

Also, seems lucky they got the train to catch on fire too. Maybe that was just a fortunate outcome. The blast alone would damage the rails but a fire also is nice. I’m sure it was timed when a train was passing.

Anyway, just some gut feelings.

This will definitely make things interesting. Hope Putin can control his anger.

Panic grips Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimea after explosion damages Kerch road and rail bridge
October 8, 2022, 06:51 AM



Shockwaves of panic have started propagating through Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula after an early-morning explosion downed part of the road bridge and damaged the rail section of the structure on Oct. 8.

With road and rail traffic between the occupied Ukrainian territory and Russian now suspended, a sea traffic jam has formed at the Kerch Strait, the Marine Traffic system reported.

According to the system, dozens of ships are now at anchor in the Sea of Azov, waiting to pass under the Kerch bridge. In addition, a traffic jam has formed from the Black Sea, consisting of a dozen vessels awaiting permission to pass.

The Russian Railways company announced that they had suspended ticket sales for trains to Crimea. Due to the explosion, all trains to and from the occupied peninsula that were supposed to depart in the near future will temporarily stop running.

Meanwhile, the "authorities" of the occupied peninsula limited the sale of groceries to 3 kilograms per person, the Russian propaganda news agency RIA reported.

“There are enough stocks of food, and non-food essentials in Crimea for up to 55 days, there are no reasons for increased demand,” the publication said.

The New Voice of Ukraine

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On the Russian telegraph channels they are saying the rail line will be back up today.

That is surprising if true

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It would be 100% Russian if they forced this to save face and if their workers/leadership was so stupid to think it was a good idea, so I expect it running cars by Monday

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I’m no engineer, so I’m sure there are others who can speak more to this than I. However, from the intensity of the fire I saw, I’d imagine the rails are most likely warped and the structural integrity of the bridge itself has been highly compromised.

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A single tank truck which caught fire and extinguished on a Houston overpass caused the overpass to be out for months to have the section of roadway replaced. Fire like this can warp concrete even. All steel is obviously stress relieved now

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On the Russian telegraph channels they are saying the rail line will be back up today.

That is surprising if true

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meduza

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Vladimir Putin’s administration has sent out guidelines to media and government agencies for covering the explosion. They include:

Emphasizing that the bridge was not destroyed, only the roadbed on both car and railway parts was damaged

Preparations to repair the bridge have already begun

The Ministry of Transport is launching new logistics routes

The Kerch ferry has resumed service

Judging by reporting from RIA Novosti, TASS, and the majority of Russian media outlets, the administration’s recommendations are being followed.

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