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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:21 am to
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:21 am to
quote:

Kaliningrad should go back to being Koenegsburg or Kralovec.


If this war ends with Russian domestic political upheaval, then Kaliningrad might become independent, but it wouldn't get taken over by another nation.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:31 am to
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577651529309356034
quote:

Rybar's update on Starobilsk (Svatove) direction, says Arab mercenaries arrived to help Ukrainian side.


Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:37 am to
quote:

If this war ends with Russian domestic political upheaval, then Kaliningrad might become independent, but it wouldn't get taken over by another nation.


Probably more likely in todays world. Just have a soft spot for Poland
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:38 am to
Nothing in this article that we haven't been talking about in this thread for a while now, but good pictures and commentary.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11278851/How-Ukraine-achieve-victory-against-Russia-according-experts.html
quote:

'This war began with Crimea and must end with Crimea - with its liberation,' President Volodymyr Zelesnky declared back in August. And, according to military experts, that is exactly what his generals are aiming to do.

Ben Hodges, former commander of American forces in Europe, has outlined what he believes to be the Ukrainian route to victory - going via the cities of Kherson and Mariupol and ending 'when the last Russian soldier crosses the [Kerch] bridge out of Crimea.'

General Hodges, now at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes Ukraine's main effort will remain capturing Kherson in the south - where a major assault has been underway since early August - with a secondary attack hooking down through the Donbas and towards the city of Mariupol.

When Mariupol falls, he told a CEPA conference last week, those troops would also converge on Crimea - hammering the peninsula with HIMARS rockets and forcing the Russians back beyond the border.

Dr Mike Martin, a visiting fellow of war studies at King's College, also raised the prospect of a third assault with Ukraine using its reserves to split the Russian frontline in two and making it difficult for Putin to move reinforcements around as he gave his own thoughts on Twitter.

Nothing is guaranteed in war, and Putin will certainly do everything in his power to stop Kyiv - from piling conscripts on to the frontlines to possibly using a nuclear weapon.

But, as Ukraine's path to victory becomes clearer, MailOnline examines how it could play out...

Posted by Eurocat
Member since Apr 2004
17238 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 8:53 am to
BBC News - Elite Classified Special Forces Russian unit suffers huge (75% estimated) losses in Ukraine battle.n

LINK

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:29 am to
Defense plant at Camden growing; Lockheed to add missile capacity

Direct Link to the article: https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2022/oct/05/defense-plant-at-camden-growing/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_nwademgaz

This may be behind a paywall so here's the article.

quote:

CAMDEN -- Lockheed Martin is expanding its missile production operations in south Arkansas to support increased production of PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot missile system.

Aerospace industry leaders from Boeing and Aerojet, Gov. Asa Hutchinson and state officials, as well as U.S. Army Brig. Gen. Frank Lozano attended an event Tuesday morning to announce the opening of the new All Round Up III facility in Camden.

"This 85,000 square foot expansion supports increased production capacity for the PAC-3 missile segment enhancement, the world's most advanced air defense missile," Camden operations facility site director Aaron Huckaby said.

The PAC-3 MSE program in Camden started in 2014 with the capacity to build 240 PAC-3 MSEs a year, said Brenda Davidson, Lockheed's vice president of PAC-3 Programs Missiles and Fire Control.

"Since that time, our first step increase went up to 350 MSE and this facility is taking us to 500 MSE," Davidson said.

This is the second major expansion at the Camden operations facility since Lockheed Martin announced an investment of $142 million at the Camden site in June 2019 with company executives and Gov. Asa Hutchinson during the Paris Air Show.

That capital investment was intended to support new construction and equipment, improve existing facilities and add 326 new jobs by 2024.

Just over 1,000 employees work at the Camden operations facility now; and 3,125 employees support production of the PAC-3 MSE globally at several Lockheed Martin facilities.

Lozano, who has served as program executive officer of Missiles and Space at the Army's Redstone Arsenal in Huntsville, Ala., since August, oversees many aspects of space and missile programs, including the PAC-3 MSE interceptor.

"The demand for PAC-3 and our missile defense capabilities is real, that demand is growing especially for the U.S. Army as we work toward meeting our inventory requirements for this advanced air defense missile," Lozano said.

"Our adversaries rely on tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and a variety of aircraft as a way to project their power and cause damage and destruction. These threat capabilities currently on display in certain parts of the world today can be easily found just by turning on the TV. U.S. Army patriot forces having extremely high operational tempo due to the need to provide critical air and missile defense protection and capability to our combatant commanders and to allies around the world."

Generals and other experts have recently recognized Lockheed Martin and other defense manufacturers in the Camden area for building weapons that have been key to Ukraine's successes in its war with Russia.

Davidson said the PAC-3 missile is an asset that is not currently being utilized in the war in Ukraine.

"The PAC-3 missile is the only hit-to-kill interceptor that's on the market today, we have 14 partner nations that have this product, so it continues to be in high demand and we just look forward to the growth, not only here in Camden ... but it is so critical across the world to make sure our war fighters are protected and our critical assets are protected," Davidson said.

"However we have European countries that do use this and are going to utilize it, and they've asked for additional supply based on the threats in Europe," Davidson said.

"The global landscape has changed, the demand has changed and the importance of what is being done in Camden, Arkansas has caught the attention of the nation," Gov. Asa Hutchinson said.

The Camden operations facility manufactures components and performs final assembly for several Integrated Air and Missile Defense and Precision Fires products.

Aerospace and defense industry manufacturing companies employ approximately 7,000 people in Arkansas and of that, roughly 4,000 are directly involved in manufacturing aerospace products and parts, according to the Arkansas Economic Development Commission's 2022 Aerospace & Defense Report.

Aerospace and defense exports comprised approximately 20% of Arkansas' total exports with over $1 billion in goods exported in 2020.

The Camden operations facility produces ground vehicles like the M270 launcher, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System Launcher and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Transporter.

The facility also produces precision fire products like the PAC-3 missile, Multiple Launch Rocket System and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System rockets and Tactical Missile System missiles.

The facility first opened in 1978 and is located primarily in Calhoun County.


This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 9:30 am
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:34 am to
Russian generals...Let's transfer more men and equipment south to support an unwinnable defense. No chance the Ukrainians will capitalize on our further weakening of the Melitopol area.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1577664790465581057
quote:

Several Russian columns of equipment were seen heading from Melitopol to the Kherson frontline.
Convoy of Grad systems
Convoy of Self Propelled Artillery
Convoy of Logistic Trucks

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:41 am to
Short thread by Mark Hertling, former commander of US Army in Europe.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1577667093071273985
quote:

Interestingly, RU State TV now claiming it will take “two months” to get recently mobilized to the front lines in Ukraine.

Great. But will they be able to do anything? No friggin’ way.

RU may be able to train the basics of soldiering in 2 months.

But…
-You can’t “train” combined arms warfare, especially for large formations, in 2 months
-You can’t “teach” Generals, Colonels and new Sergeants the tenets of leadership in 2 months
-You can’t “fix” a supply system that has been plagued with corruption for years in 2 months.
-You can’t “coordinate” tankers, infantry, arty, intel, engineers, air forces & others for battlefield operations in 2 months
-you can’t “counter distrust” soldiers have in RU govt in 2 months
-after 60,000 dead soldiers, you can’t reverse the loss felt by RU mothers & wives
-you can’t issue equipment, uniforms, ammo, food, supplies, spare parts, that aren’t there (sanctions do work) in 2 months
-you can’t/won’t offer advice to a President who doesn’t listen (and who kills those who offer contrarian recommendations) in 2 months.

But suffice to say, any RU State TV commentator or pundit who are saying things will be better - in the winter! - in just 2 months needs to remember just one thing:

You can’t change culture in 2 months.

Doing that takes years, even decades.

Putin will keep losing.

Posted by Texaggie96
Member since Dec 2018
1381 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:50 am to
quote:

Kazakhstan rejects Russian demand to expel Ukraine’s ambassador Authorities in Kazakhstan have rejected a Russian demand to expel Ukraine’s ambassador over comments about killing Russians. Russia’s relations with ex-Soviet allies have strained during the Ukraine war. Tensions escalated after Petro Vrublevskiy, Ukraine’s ambassador in Astana, the Kazakh capital, said in an interview in August that “the more Russians we kill now, the fewer of them our children will have to kill”. Russia demanded that Kazakhstan expel the diplomat, saying his comments were unacceptable for a country with a significant ethnic Russian minority.


Looks like Russia is once again setting themselves up to "save" the Russians in Kazahkstan. Someone should tell them it's not going so well in the Ukraine, so the threats are hollow.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
20967 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:04 am to
quote:

Rybar's update on Starobilsk (Svatove) direction, says Arab mercenaries arrived to help Ukrainian side.


The irony of this, of course, is that there was a time several months ago when 15,000 Syrians were supposedly going to Ukraine to fight for Russia, and it never happened.
Posted by Texaggie96
Member since Dec 2018
1381 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:09 am to
quote:

The irony of this, of course, is that there was a time several months ago when 15,000 Syrians were supposedly going to Ukraine to fight for Russia, and it never happened.


They were busy killing all the people who had self-determined they didn't want to be part of Syria.

Apparently self-determination only matters if you're Russian.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:12 am to
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1577677498715889664
quote:

???????? Battle for Kherson: Situation in the Posad-Pokrovske and Oleksandrivka sectors
As of 17:00 Kyiv Time, October 5, 2022

?? After the Russian Armed Forces regrouping and retreat from the Krivyy Rih section of the front, AFU command has concentrated its efforts in strengthening its contingent at Oleksanrivka, Posad-Pokrovske and Snihurivka.

At the same time, a massive disinformation campaign is being carried out on the local population. For example, rumors are being spread about a Russian withdrawal from Snihurivka, Blahodatne, Pravdino and other places along the line of contact.

Leaders of the AFU 59th Motorized Brigade made another attempt in the morning to attack Ternovy Pody. At last two tanks and several shock groups in armored vehicles took part in the assault on Russian positions.

Russian Armed Forces units struck a blow at the attacking AFU formations, preventing them from gaining a foothold in the immediate periphery of the settlement.


Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:29 am to
If I am not mistaken, none of the Baltic States or Poland wanted Kaliningrad in their independence, due almost all Russians who were and are sympathetic with Russia.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Several Russian columns of equipment were seen heading from Melitopol to the Kherson frontline. Convoy of Grad systems Convoy of Self Propelled Artillery Convoy of Logistic Trucks


Good assumption Ukrainians take advantage and liberate Meliopol now in relatively short order?
Posted by joemuggs
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2007
617 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:40 am to
quote:

Good morning. Ukraine terrorists will lose. Have a nice day.


Start waxing your Bikini zone bud.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:46 am to
Rybar talking about mobilization
https://t.me/rybar/39792
There is a video to go along with this but there is no translation, maybe @wartranslated will pick this up and confirm the below
quote:

???????? About the video with sick mobilized from the Taman division

In the morning, a video appeared on the Web: a certain mobilized serviceman, being at the railway station inside the echelon, reads an appeal recorded by the team.

According to him, the personnel were deprived of the opportunity to equip themselves at their own expense. On the 29th, people were loaded onto a train, which since then (for a week!) has been rolling around the country without a specific purpose.

The most basic problem: the personnel fell ill because they are not allowed to leave the echelon, the ventilation does not work properly, there is no medical support, there is no care from the commanders.

Because of this, the military decided to make the incident public, because they believe in civil society and Russia.

We cannot say with 100% certainty that the video is true or, conversely, fake. What we can say is that this is possible, if only because the announced partial mobilization revealed deeply systemic problems in the organizational processes on the part of the Ministry of Defense.

The command staff of the Taman division (as well as the 1st tank army) "worthily" showed itself during the "regrouping" near Balakleya, Izyum and Liman. Of course, we are not talking about all the commanders - there are adequate ones. But the title of “Sadiq” was assigned to the unification not from scratch (by analogy with the Syrian Sadyks fleeing the battlefield).

Therefore, we can assume that the current command, which simply has no one to replace, did not care about the fate of the replenishment. Just because he can't. But we cannot say this for sure: for this, work must be done by the relevant authorities.

Video and voiced facts, of course, need to be verified. Military investigators and prosecutors would do well to insist on checking the lists of mobilized personnel sent to replenish the numerical strength of the Taman division. And after talking with the mobilized and assessing their condition - then we will find out what is really happening.


This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 10:47 am
Posted by Tigris
Cloud Cuckoo Land
Member since Jul 2005
13133 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:50 am to
quote:

According to him, the personnel were deprived of the opportunity to equip themselves at their own expense. On the 29th, people were loaded onto a train, which since then (for a week!) has been rolling around the country without a specific purpose.

The most basic problem: the personnel fell ill because they are not allowed to leave the echelon, the ventilation does not work properly, there is no medical support, there is no care from the commanders.


It's the new Gulag system. Instead of camps in Siberia, though, they get front line postings.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:50 am to
From the offical Russian Z telegram channel
I guess Putin thinks changing the name will change their fortunes on the battlefield
https://t.me/c/1552544518/5949
quote:

??Vladimir Putin today may address the nation to change the status of the special operation - media????

It is assumed that in connection with the inclusion of four new regions in Russia, the NWO will turn into a counter-terrorist operation. Rumors about this circulated for several weeks and were recently confirmed by Aksyonov:

“In fact, we will no longer conduct an NMD, but a counter-terrorist operation on our territories. We have fought for our people before. Now we will fight for our land,” he said.

Understand what it will change???
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:52 am to
Ukrainian Armed Forces liberate several settlements in Luhansk Oblast
Wednesday, 5 October 2022, 13:42

Serhii Haidai, the Head of the Luhansk Military Administration, has confirmed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have liberated several settlements in Luhansk Oblast.

Source: Haidai on Telegram

Quote: "Well, now it's official – the liberation of Luhansk Oblast has begun. Several settlements have been liberated from the Russian army, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already raising the Ukrainian flag there."

Details: He did not specify which settlements had been liberated by the Ukrainian defenders.

Ukrainska Pravda
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8163 posts
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:52 am to
I've seen several telegram posts from Russians and one recent (last 2 days) video of a Russian POW that all say Russia hasn't been paying their troops.

This is from the Russian Z channel.
https://t.me/c/1552544518/5950
quote:

??In the Omsk region there is nothing to pay the salaries of the mobilized???????

The governor of the Omsk region Alexander Burkov said that the budget deficit is 12 billion rubles. The problem arose with lump sum payments.

“We still do not understand how we are to pay wages. And, of course, this problem with the lack of funds for lump-sum payments is very painful. Of course, we will look for some kind of solution mechanism,” Burkov said.

And what place did you think when you promised???


ETA another post from Z on this situation saying the local officals and deputies gave themselves pay raises instead of the money going to the troops they say they can't pay. https://t.me/c/1552544518/5966
quote:

??The budget of Omsk found 233 million to increase the salaries of officials ??

While in the Omsk region there is nothing to pay the salaries of the mobilized, Governor Alexander Burkov ordered to increase the salaries of local officials and deputies by 10% ???????

That is, to raise their salaries - they found money, but to help equip the defenders - dick ?! Take, people, loans?!


Recent video of captured Russian soldier, towards the end he says he hasn't been paid in months

Video in link
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577441687915606017
quote:

Ukrainians captured a Luhansk mobik and fed him tasty shawarma.

What is Shawarma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shawarma
This post was edited on 10/5/22 at 11:09 am
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