re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Wargonzo (Russian) on situation in Lyman

https://t.me/wargonzo/8521

quote:

---

This night will be decisive for Krasny Lyman. Some may skeptically say "once again". But we reliably assert, relying on several reliable sources at once - it has never been so tough and so dangerous there. In addition to the breakthrough to the Headquarters and the actual blockade of Drobyshev, fragmentary information was added that the battles for Yampol had also begun. Ticks around Lyman can close at any moment. There are still people there, including fighters of the NM DPR and the Russian Army. Drama to the situation is added by the fact that tomorrow should be, according to the idea, a solemn and historic day. Therefore, God forbid that the tragedy does not happen! We pray for you, our Heroes!

---

quote:

---

Europe is paying seven times as much for gas as the US,

---

EDIT it is actually 10 X not 7. Your info is about as faulty as your intelligence


this is nothing new at all. Cheap Russian natural gas multiple X more expensive than here in the US for 15 years. Go back and check TTF cash price for Europe and Henry Hub for the USA. Friends who know and understand refining and petrochemicals business in Belgium were very concerned that Europe would lose all of its petrochemical business. The reason so many of its refineries closed 3-5 years ago is because natural gas is cheaper in the USA.

So maybe its GAYBrianKellyRespecter instead.

This will force the Dutch to produce from the GIANT Groningen gas field again even though a handfull of rural small homes had cracked foundations from subsidence.

Russia already did that in Crimea and ZERO happened when Ukraine destroyed air bases and the Baltic Fleet HQ there. Same when it hit supply depots in Belgorod RUSSIA.

quote:

---

Russian TV reporter stating that there is large attack by Russian Forces all along Bakhmut front.

---

Which will be utterly meaningless when Ukraine rolls down the Eastern flank of this advance.

The only reason that Russia is still attacking Bakhmut is that it's Wagner doing the attacking, and Wagner reports directly to Putin.

Any kind of halfway decently organized and commanded military would instead have had those troops trying to stop Ukraine from taking Lyman.

Bakhmut has zero strategic value, while Lyman has huge strategic value. Even if Ukraine were to lose Bakhmut, that's only a temporary victory there anyway.

Back when Russia was attempting to capture all the Donbas, taking Bakhmut might have enabled Russia to then move on to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Now, attacking Bakhmut is just another example of Russian stupidity ... so if course BrianKellyRespecter thinks capturing it would be some big accomplishment.

The Putin lovers have to take any little ray of sunshine they can get right now because it’s been a really cloudy few weeks for them.

Video of Russia downing a Ukrainian SU-24

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1575600234734161920

quote:

---

#Ukraine: A Ukrainian Su-24M strike aircraft was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile presumably in South.
As reported and as can be seen, the crew managed to eject.

---

I think this is an interesting post by WarGonzo. Does anyone else detect underlying anger in this?

https://t.me/wargonzo/8524

quote:

---

"We're leaving, we're leaving, there will be quieter times"

- the lines of the song come to mind when you look at the long queues to leave for Georgia. Hundreds, thousands of males fleeing from Russia filled the gorges of the Caucasus.

Exodus! Exodus! Exodus! Flight of baristas, gamers, web designers, bloggers for quiet times. Behind illusory times, because they will never come again.

"Let my people go!" - said the biblical Moses, and then echoing him, the black Armstrong sang. Are these people only “ours”? Who flee the country at the slightest danger?

By the way, gamers, where are you? You would be useful in the Donbass. For example, in the DPR battalions, the boys who were fond of games manage drones well and accurately adjust the fire. Found out by experience.

Of course, let's not flatter ourselves - the officials and moneybags remaining in Russia will find a way to avoid mobilization. Close relatives of patented patriots will go to war, but they will find a safer place, at the headquarters.

And the guys from the outskirts, the sons of workers and saleswomen, boys and men from the provincial depths and national republics will fight - all those who have no connection and no opportunity to go abroad. They will carry the heavy burden of war. That's how it happened in Russia.

And many of the "progressive" youth will run away. They've already fled. Guys, where are you? Georgia and Kazakhstan are not rubber! You'll be there like the dogs without birth! And in the second wave of mobilization of your women, will they be taken away?

Dmitry Seleznev (Old Miner @oldminerkomi) especially for @wargonzo and @readovkaru.

---

I have posted a couple of times about my concern over US manufacturing's ability to replenish the war stocks we've provided Ukraine as well as the broader implications of the decline in defense manufacturing capacity.

This paper, just released by CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) raises a warning flag that the US is running out of armaments to give to Ukraine and the challenges we face in ramping up production.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/united-states-running-out-weapons-send-ukraine

https://www.csis.org/analysis/industrial-mobilization-assessing-surge-capabilities-wartime-risk-and-system-brittleness This links to another related study they did in 2021.

quote:

---

Is the United States Running out of Weapons to Send to Ukraine?
September 16, 2022

The United States has given Ukraine dozens of different munitions and weapon systems. In most instances, the amounts given to Ukraine are relatively small compared to U.S. inventories and production capabilities. However, some U.S. inventories are reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans and training. The key judgment for both munitions and weapons is how much risk the United States is willing to accept.
...
Decisionmakers are likely willing to accept more inventory risk if production lines are surging, so that replacement systems will arrive more quickly. The Department of Defense (DOD) has been talking with the defense industry about increasing production, and the industry is open to doing that. DOD has requested congressional approval to use some of the funds provided in May to increase production capabilities for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) or Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) and 155-millimeter (mm) ammunition. The industry’s general position, however, is that DOD should make commitments for multiyear acquisition to justify industry investment in surge capabilities.
...
A CSIS study examined the ability of the defense industrial base to replace inventories in an emergency and found that the process would take many years for most items. The problem is that the defense industrial base is sized for peacetime production rates. Surge capabilities have been regarded as wasteful, buying factory capacity that was not planned to be used. Conversion of civilian industry to wartime production is theoretically possible but a long process. In World War II, that conversion took two to three years in a society and economy that was fully mobilized.
...

---

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1575710876329443329

quote:

---

Two majors
Summary for the morning of September 30
Our units are defending Krasny Liman surrounded.
Boiler. Reinforcements were cut off from
the city, could not come up. BARS, NM LPR and 20
units of the Russian Armed Forces remained in
the city.

---

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd4MsQOWIAEkpf9?format=jpg&name=medium

Where is Stavkov?

Sounds like we're within hours of Lyman being liberated.