re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If this is Putins end game he had it thoroughly planned out at every turn and every level. He may be a shite military tactician but he is ready to burn the whole house down at the minute. There is speculation about how his time will end prematurely in the next few weeks. I’m told his cancer may reappear, that there may be a transportation issue or that he may simply go quietly in his sleep from an previously undisclosed heart issue. Russia is watching this all unfold already knowing this means new leadership and the only question is who and how bad.

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Is this a suggestion that Putin may be dealt with by hardliners in the Kremlin who are obviously displeased with results or folks who disagreed with the invasion to begin with?

This is a parody but it is comedy gold. Holy crap, watch this clip from that Russian talking head show.

https://twitter.com/R82938886/status/1574865224108220423?s=20&t=ApyQU5kuHRDxvoiw1tUTSQ

Lots of stuff in this clip including the head guy saying he got draft papers

ETA: this is not real just humor

The controls for the gas flowing to Ukraine itself are all manual valves. Russia will have to send men to turn those handwheels as they are not motor operated.

To shut gas off to Ukraine, it shuts gas off to Hungary and Orban is somewhat of a supporter of Russia.

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Would hope so, but as other more well versed on energy than I have commented, there’s only so much gas to be extracted and exported with lost capacity from covid and current admin policies. Military seems an obvious option, but that doesn’t get them energy.

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Natural gas production has grown this year a good bit, more LNG terminals coming online to export. None of those will be ready next year but on the way.

A contract with Qatar has been signed and there is a lot of gas there with no use for it but export and it is cheap as natural gas was in coastal TX and LA several decades ago before major pipelines were built to the Midwest

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I know that you are just a troll and don't care, but Russia is preparing to stop the flow of gas through Ukraine too

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Russia would be stupid to stop sending gas through Ukraine. If it keeps sending gas through Ukraine then it can use paying Ukraine the unpaid transit fees as a carrot to try and get Ukraine to the negotiating table on Russia’s terms since Ukraine needs that revenue in the long run. Plus Russia needs the revenue from gas sales to Europe. Russia will definitely decrease the supply to try and squeeze the EU and it might even do some short term shutdowns but nothing long term.

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ETA: this might be humor and not real. I don’t know Russian so I can’t tell. I hope it’s real.

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It's from a guy basically doing a Bad Lip Reading. It's absolutely hilarious, though.

Correct, nothing is settled until at least an ROV or divers go down to inspect and bring back filmed evidence at a minimum.

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4. Russian rookie diver not paying attention to where he was doing or not knowing what he doing because the diver who knew the job was mobilized.

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Russia would be stupid

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You probably could've just stopped right there.

Of course, it would be dumb to stop the flow through Ukraine. But invading Ukraine was stupid. Putin giving orders directly to generals is stupid.

And, yes, blowing up Nord Stream was stupid. I think we're way past the point where any of Putin's actions are predictable. The real reason for the Nord Stream blowup is probably something like one of the head oligarchs at Gazprom didn't convince enough of his employees to enlist, so Putin wants to make sure that he's broke after the war. It'll end up being something stupid like that.

Rybar map from this morning:



If Rybar is right that Ukraine has fire control over the Tors'ke - Kreminna road, then Russians in Lyman perhaps still have a way out of the pocket to the northeast, but that's questionable.

I think that the timing is going to line up very well for Ukraine. On Friday, Putin will be announcing the "referenda" results and the "annexation" of occupied Ukraine. And, at the same time, we'll likely see Ukraine enjoying the full control of Lyman and pics of hundreds of Russian tanks and heavy equipment.

Why is Lyman so important? It's important because it sits at a crucial railway junction, trains can come directly from Kharkiv, and Ukraine will be able to set up a forward operating base there for its efforts to retake the rest of northern Ukraine.

As WeeWee has explained several times, Ukrainian roads were total crap before the war. Then you factor in the wear that incredibly heavy tanks put on roads. Then you factor in the fact that no road improvements or repair has been done in occupied areas this year. Then you factor in the fact that the fall rains have started, and everything is getting very muddy.

EDIT: Rybar's map is also behind. There are numerous reports now that Ukraine has taken Kolodyazi. I think War Gonzo said that Ukraine is attack from that town.

I believe there is 0% chance of a coup occurring. Everyone there was placed there by Putin. 100%. They are probably preparing for the day that Putin is gone but they are not taking any actions to facilitate it. Putin's fate is their fate. When Putin goes, they go.