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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 9/7/22 at 7:59 am to
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
28558 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 7:59 am to
quote:

Needs confirmation...

Ukrainian sources have been extremely quiet over the last few days. Updates seem to be coming only from Russian sources, often repeated and publicized by Ukrainian sources to amplify admissions that things are not going well for the Russians. However, Ukrainian sources are uncharacteristically quiet and vague.

I consider that a good sign for Ukraine.
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5647 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 8:08 am to
quote:

However, Ukrainian sources are uncharacteristically quiet and vague.

I consider that a good sign for Ukraine.


Likewise, no news is good news.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 8:43 am to
quote:

quote:
However, Ukrainian sources are uncharacteristically quiet and vague.

I consider that a good sign for Ukraine.


Likewise, no news is good news.


Agreed. Russia has been trying to promote the "counter offensive failed since it didn't succeed in a day" line. So pro Russia sources saying it's going bad for them is rather eye opening
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 8:48 am to
A video of the shootdown of a Russian SU25 by a Ukrainian Fighter Jet in the Kharkiv region.

https://twitter.com/Cyx_5/status/1567435093580324866
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 8:51 am to
More Russian intercepted comms

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567431374642069505
quote:

Russian Voenkor Kotenok Z indicates Ukrainians are advancing from several directions. The comms with police units in Balakliya is lost.


This post was edited on 9/7/22 at 8:52 am
Posted by GeauxxxTigers23
TeamBunt General Manager
Member since Apr 2013
62514 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 8:53 am to
Ukraine needs to keep the momentum and hopefully destroy the Russian forces before Russia is able to deploy a bunch of extra reserves to the fight.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:02 am to
Reading all the snippets of information flowing across Twitter really paints a picture of Ukraine having the initiative and Russia is on its heels.

There are multiple videos and pictures circulating of abandoned Russian positions and captured Russians including officers.

Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
25808 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:05 am to
quote:

Reading all the snippets of information flowing across Twitter really paints a picture of Ukraine having the initiative and Russia is on its heels.

There are multiple videos and pictures circulating of abandoned Russian positions and captured Russians including officers.


Well, should be over soon. You can always trust Twitter for legit intel
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:11 am to
quote:

Well, should be over soon. You can always trust Twitter for legit intel


Its been the best source to gain information on the progress of the war.

Is everything true, of course not. But when multiple sources are posting collaborating information along with video and images to support it... it is probably more likely true than not.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:18 am to
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567437118099554305
quote:

Russian Aleksandr Kots confirmed much more sophisticated plans of Ukrainians to cut off the Izyum group; Balakliya not important to be taken at all costs; blames Ministry of Defence for hiding the bad news.



Karkiv is to the NW and Izium is to the SE of this area.
This post was edited on 9/7/22 at 9:20 am
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:24 am to
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1567434170460160003
quote:

Girkin says Balakliya was defended by LDPR mobilised and Rosgvardia who didn't know how to use available heavy weapons; Ukrainians entered swiftly on armour rendering Rus. artillery ineffective; beat the f*ck out of the garrison.

Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:33 am to
A better map of the SE Karkiv area offensive showing the breakthrough

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567447809443364864
quote:

???Ukrainian offensive in #Kharkiv Oblast:
- UA forces liberated Volokhiv Yar and are reportedly advancing towards Semenivka and Bryhadyrivka
- Kalynivka, Taranushyne is likely under UA control, we haven't seen any evidence yet
- UA troops entered Balakliia

Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45551 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:33 am to
quote:

Without Europe, who is Gazprom going to sell to? They will gain some back in 2025 to China but definitely now all of it. Besides that, with China as the only customer, that puts any testicles remaining in Russia in a squeeze.



Russia will probably never be completely out of the European energy market, but they will lose their dominant position. IIRC Russia is supposed to go from supplying 40% of Europe's natural gas to supplying 20% by 2025. That is a huge loss for Russia. It is possible the Russia increases its supplies to China and India to make up for the lose. However, that will make Russia dependent on China for its economic viability. This war has backfired bigly on Russia. Even if Russia is able to negotiate a favorable peace it will need a decade or more to reform its military and reequip its military just to get back to the strength that it was thought to have back in 01/2022 and its economy is at the mercy of China. Good job Vlad.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:38 am to
Darth, here is a perfect example of what I am talking about.

This is supposedly a video from Volokhiv Yar that has been rumored to be taken back by the Ukrainians. Personally, I don't know if real or not; however, as other sources also contribute images (Picture below) then it becomes more probable that it is in fact real.

Video at link
https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1567436837119004674
quote:

Visual confirmation that Volokhiv Yar has been retaken by Ukraine Armed Forces. Balakliya cut off from Kupyansk.


Picture from supposedly the same area
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:42 am to
Another map of the Kharkiv area offensive
https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567209129134931974
quote:

I would not be surprised if we see a UA advance over the SD river in the direction of the M03 road used for supplies and to get fire control of the Borova bridge.

Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45551 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 9:59 am to
quote:

There are lots of unconfirmed reports out of the area between Izium and Kharkiv about Ukraine taking back villages.


If these rumors are true it is big. Not only does it show that the Ukrainians can sustain 2 offensive movements at once, but it puts the railroad bridge across the Oskil River in HIMARs range. The bridge is on the main rail line from Russia to the Izium front. Both the rail coming from Belgorod as well as supplies coming from Russia via the Luhansk oblast merge and come across that bridge. If that bridge is knocked out then Russia has to ship supplies by using trucks across the shitty Ukrainian roads which could be a big deal come the Rasputitsia in a 6 weeks or so.
quote:

Wee Wee, this is the area we anticipated the counter-attack into the Russian flank that never materialized.



The counterattack materialized. That is the counterattack where my friend's T64 was hit by a RPG back in June. It just failed. With that being said. There is reason why Ukraine was using Dnipro and not Zaporizhzhia as a staging area. Dnipro allows Ukraine to either commit parts of its reserves to the Kherson axis or the Izyum axis as the situation evolves.
Posted by LSUPilot07
Member since Feb 2022
8596 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 10:01 am to
83 Russian dead, 5 T-72 tanks, 15 howitzers, 1 KA-52 attack helo and an Su-25 all destroyed yesterday alone. Not a bad days work.
Posted by Chromdome35
Fast lane, behind a slow driver
Member since Nov 2010
8164 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 10:05 am to
This is interesting if true...(not really sure this one is, consume with prejudice)

This is supposedly a leaked (and translated) document from within the Russian govenment discussing payments to dead Russian soldiers familys. This document says that as of August 24th, 48,759 Russian soldiers have been killed. Multiple by three to estimate the number of wounded gives us 146K WIA. That number seems pretty high to me as that would put the total WIA+KIA at 195K. Russia only invaded with around 190K troops to begin plus what reinforcements they've thrown in since.

My guess is that the number of WIA is much lower due to the lack of battlefield evacuation and general healthcare in the Russian army. That is probably driving up the number of KIA.
https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1567484424412954625

quote:

1/ !! A new leaked document from Russian administration: RUS Min of Finance tells by AUG 28th, 361.4B RUB has been paid to families of #RuKIAsoldiers, 7.4M per man!. This does not include those MIA, killed separatists and WIA !!
document seems valid to me.!
2/ THEY ARE TALKING OF 48'759 dead soldiers !!!
much much much more than everything we have anticipated so far !
but be careful, i can't right now, certified this document. i can tell it sounds "ok" and i see no reason for a fake here... but it happens.
if information confirmed




Translated


This post was edited on 9/7/22 at 10:19 am
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 10:05 am to
quote:

It is possible the Russia increases its supplies to China and India


If I recall correctly, Russia doesn't have as robust infrastructure to transport gas to India and China, and also have to compete with Iran and Saudi Arabia, who are both working to supply gas to that region. I've long suggested that the smart diplomatic play by the US would be to use Iran and Russia against each other, dangling sanctions relief for either to isolate one or the other. In this case, sanctions relief for Iran could fracture the Moscow-Tehran axis, which some Russian FP thinkers (including Dugin) believe is central to Russia breaking the American hold on the West Asian/Eastern European corridor.

I think the long-term reality for Russia, given their massive demographic issues, is to become the site of Chinese excess industrial capacity.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39820 posts
Posted on 9/7/22 at 10:07 am to
quote:

You can always trust Twitter for legit intel


You actually can. The Syrian Civil War taught us that, but of course you don't know anything about that either.
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