re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Given what he said to me here two weeks ago, I’m not all that concerned about hyperbole and being sensitive to him. No one has ever insulted me like that on this board before. Me calling him a count is a much higher kindness than he gave to me. crazy4lsu is my fricking enemy at this point, and he can frick right off.

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You need to chill out brother bear or you’re going to stroke out.

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I know their alternative plans besides war and they’re all bullshite. China has them surrounded.

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They are far from surrounded man. They have literal unimpeded access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean beyond, and can project power to more distant places far more easily than China. And the areas where they compete with China are also generally difficult to get to, which is why they liked the BCIM corridor initially, as they saw massive benefits from that investment program. They have access to Central Asia if they choose to have access, but India has development issues that only aggressive investment will cure.

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India doesn’t want war with China, but eventually they’re going to snap and have to lash out against them.

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There are literally several more things they could do other than war. And can you give me a historical example of India 'lashing out'?

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They’re bargaining, their current proposal to surpass the BRI simply isn’t going to work.

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India started their liberalization program a decade after China did. It's also wild that you are just assuming the BRI is already a success. A lot of its success remains to be seen.

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Are you sure about that? Barrack Obama was once asked as President what keeps him up at night and his response? “Pakistan.” Why Pakistan? Could it be because it’s run by a bunch of lunatics who want to kill all the pagans and India is full of them? As much as Islamists hate Christians and certainly Jews, they hate Pagans even more. At least Islamists know the former two are somewhat on the right path and just don’t have the full picture on what Allah truly represents, but they see Hinduism as all around blasphemous. Pakistan and India going off on one another greatly concerns me, and the Chinese would have to get involved in that.

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Yes I'm sure about that you dumb dipshit. You keep reducing the Punjabi ruling class to Islamists, which is immensely funny if you've ever met any of them. The issues in Pakistan and India are multi-faceted, as they share many facets of culture, as Urdu and Hindi are mutually intelligible, and Pakistan itself has its own development issues which limits the theater of where they could possibly confront India. Given Pakistan's population growth over the next 30 years, where it is projected to grow by 100 million people, there will be a lot of internal pressure on Pakistani elite to keep up the development pace with India, which again limits how much they can spend on extra-territorial adventures and/or direct confrontation with India.

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You’re always talking about Russian children and their heads blown off

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and wishcasting a war with china

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You sure about that, especially with their control of Africa?

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Yes I'm sure. And I'm pretty sure the groups with the largest investments in Africa were European countries, with the UK and France leading the way with around 60 billion invested each, which dwarfs the total amount of Chinese investment in Africa between 2000 and 2018. For comparison's sake, Ethiopia is one of China's main investment partners, and they received 4.3 billion in Chinese investment. Indian start-ups, by themselves, garnered 14 billion in Chinese investment. Again, India has far more access to the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean than China does to the South China Sea and the Pacific.

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India has been around since 1947. Not even enough for a turning.

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Lol, but you know India has a larger history than before its time under the British. But regardless, you seem here to want to avoid India's desire for neutrality in international conflict.

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Yeah, and unlike China, they succeeded.

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What? India was a democracy before liberalization. Do you know what I mean here by 'liberalization'?

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Xi and his successors are not going to take “no” for an answer here.

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And? Geopolitics has always been this way. War is an option among many, but you seem to be privileging war for some reason.

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You just assume that Pakistan’s leadership is full of little angels, while all the bad things that come out of it is the military. frick right off.

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Lol, what the frick are you talking about? Regardless, there's a reason why the Punjabi elite want to control Afghanistan through Islamism, and it isn't because they are Islamists. You know nothing about Pakistan at all and keep talking about it. It's impressive to be this retarded about a subject. Nicely done.

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Then explain to me the port just recently built in Djibouti that is large enough to house two aircraft carriers that the Chinese don’t currently have which is right at the entrance to the Red Sea. They’re playing the long game.

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Uh, Djibouti has military bases for Germany, Spain, Italy, France, the UK, the US, and SA. You explain to me the significance for once. Or rather, explain to me why India doesn't need a base in Djibouti.

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They don’t have a choice but to get involved in a situation involving both China and Pakistan. They’re a very safe ally in this regardless of their relations to Russia.

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Again, India has historically never aligned with the US, and it would take a fundamentally different circumstance for that to change. They have done exercises with the US, Australia and Japan in the Indian Ocean, but that is a far cry from being a 'very safe ally.'

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I’m saying that India has been liberalized. Maybe I misunderstood your definition of what you are saying. Now China has most definitely been westernized, which Xi doesn’t like one bit, but Nixon’s goal was for them to become what India is. That has failed.

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Uh, India during the 70's was far closer to communism than it was to economic liberalization. I don't suspect that is what Nixon wanted, as he and Kissinger openly complained about India. In economic terms, China has liberalized, as has India and Vietnam for that matter. India is still a less open economy than China in some respects, and they could be more aggressive in their monetary policy.

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Yeah, but this time it’s different and there are nuclear arms. We are at the Fourth Turning, which if true will happen between now and 2024. We are in a very precarious situation, and if things go to hell in Taiwan which will really set everything off, I’ll spare you the “I told you so” to both the Biden voters and the warmongers in this thread.

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I won't spare you the opposite, given how much of your menses you've spread across this thread with utter nonsense.

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Got a mediocre education on India vs Pakistan, but a world class one on China vs Taiwan and China vs India, and also know that China has Pakistan in their pocket. How do you think this ends? If Pakistan chooses to side with China (which I think they will) things are fricked.

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Again, the Chinese-Pakistan situation is more complicated than them simply choosing to side with them. As of 2022, none of the BRI projects in Pakistan have produced significant economic gains, and BRI itself has raised tensions within inter-Pakistani politics. Because Pakistan, like India, has important local, ethnic, and nationalist divisions, CPEC's implementation has repeatedly faltered, with one example being Baluchistan. In addition, regular Pakistani citizens launched protests against CPEE, such as a 2021 sit-in in Gwadar to protest Chinese deep-sea fishing activity. The work of Khurram Iqbal cites a few examples of severe divisions in the Pakistani elite as well. The major project in Pakistan was a port in Gwadar, which has received little shipping traffic, and didn't benefit the local economy that much.

You just put onto South Asian politics what you want to believe, without respect to the details. This isn't a video game where interests are smoothed away, nor is this a historical rendition where you can ignore tiny meaningful details for the sake of the larger story. The narrative in the case of South Asia has yet to be written, and there are far more discontents in your notion of geopolitics than you seem to think.

Nations are always limited by what they can possibly achieve. Why you can't seem to apply those limits is another question.