re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Green River shale oil is in tents for purposes? I'm so confused just here for war updates.

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Take the oil discussions to the mineral board unless it’s directly about the war. That’s what’s needed.

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Especially since prior to the invasion in Feb people were worrying about Turkey's warming relations with Russia and were even concerned about Turkey leaving NATO and becoming partners with Russia.

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Turkey was never going to partner with Russia in any scenario. People misunderstand the Turks.

Like I've said before, Russia is a bad-faith negotiator and will undermine any agreement brokered by third-parties because it is in their interest to do so.

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Turkey was never going to partner with Russia in any scenario. People misunderstand the Turks.

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People were certainly worried about it and I would not be surprised if they Russians thought they could split NATO or at least get Turkey to leave NATO back in Feb.

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Like I've said before, Russia is a bad-faith negotiator and will undermine any agreement brokered by third-parties because it is in their interest to do so.

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Yep you can't trust Russia. Just ask Ukraine how the multiple deals they signed with Russia about respecting their sovereignty worked out.

I’d say it’s hard to believe people can be this naive about Ukraine but even smart people are indoctrinated by media. West Ukraine is full of Nazis and mobsters.

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West Ukraine is full of Nazis and mobsters.

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shhh....so is the U.S.

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People were certainly worried about it and I would not be surprised if they Russians thought they could split NATO or at least get Turkey to leave NATO back in Feb.

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It is Turkey's interest to play this up, as they gain lots of concessions just from the thought that it could happen. But in reality, their current geopolitical interest and historical geopolitical interest overlap directly except in one key area. You see them competing in the Eastern Med and the Levant, in Mesopotamia and the lower Tigris-Euphrates River system and in the Caspian Basin. What you don't see them doing is competing in Southern Europe, an area where traditionally they had far more direct influence as compared to the Russians, who are interested in the same region (but has never actually directly controlled it to my memory). For them, their western flank is secure, even with their troubles with Greece, which have to do with the Eastern Med and not Europe proper. They are not active to the same degree in Southern Europe as even Russia currently, a sign that they are comfortable with the status quo as it is. In fact, they are barely active at all, and what would spur their activity is something happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as Bosnians nobles were traditionally important members of the Ottoman elite. The Turks supplied weapons and equipment to the Bosnians during the Yugoslav Wars, but outside of that, they are barely active in that theater.

For me, the sign that Turkey might consider going its own way is if they decided to interfere in Southern European politics directly. That would signal a sea-change and should cause worry. That they don't, and instead directly seek concessions is a sign they are well-within the current Anglo-American sphere, and are just annoyed with the lack of technology transfers from the US. They've been asking for patriot missile systems for 20 years and have always been rebuffed because they also wanted to produce parts for themselves as a way to advance their own domestic arms industry. The US refusal to that part of any agreement prevented the transfer, and thus is why the Turks sought the S-400, because they feel that their Eastern, Southeastern and Southern borders are insecure, but not their Northern or Northwestern.

The Turks continually feel that America and Europe do not take their border concerns in other theaters seriously, even though they would be a willing partner against Russia and Iran, two historical rivals for influence in Western Asia. They've been taken more seriously as soon as Erdogan moved away from Turkey's 'zero-problem' philosophy during the Syrian Civil War. Here is a good article delineating their approach up until 2011, as this article was written in 2010. LINK

Here is a key excerpt:

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Second, the principle of zero problems towards neighbors has been successfully implemented for the past seven years. Turkey’s relations with its neighbors now follow a more cooperative track. There is a developing economic interdependence between Turkey and its neighboring countries. In 2009, for example, we achieved considerable diplomatic progress with Armenia, which nevertheless remains the most problematic relationship in Turkey’s neighborhood policy.

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That change after 2012 or so signaled insecurity about territorial integrity, as well as some degree of unfairness felt by the Turks for the way the EU forced Turkey to deal with the refugee situation with very little cooperation from EU states.

In spite of this, Turkey remains in the sphere of Anglo-American influence, and there is more chance that they will further integrate into Europe proper than there is that they will align with Russia, something they've rarely ever done historically except for a few instances, like some population exchanges such as with the Circassians, who were persecuted heavily by the Russians during their adventures in the Caucasus regions, as well a few other times.

In short, based on the actual evidence, the Turks aren't a serious concern to enter the Russian sphere of influence, as their is far more money in the EU, as well as the chance to workout some issues with the Eastern Med. through brokered negotiations. That Turkey took matters into its own hands and has sought out to secure all their flanks is evidence of what their actual interests are, which focus on historical spheres of influence in all areas except for one, which curiously they have a set of agreements, including NATO and possible future ascension into the EU, which undermines any need to seek influence in Southern Europe, which was their most immediate security concern in previous eras, mimicking others who dominated Anatolia since the historical record began.

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Yep you can't trust Russia. Just ask Ukraine how the multiple deals they signed with Russia about respecting their sovereignty worked out.

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I tried explaining this to one moron who stated that Russia was going to win the war regardless of what Ukraine was going to do, and couldn't understand the inconsistency of that position when asked about why Russia would actually abide by any peace agreement, if he believed that Russian victory was ensured. Such a situation would guarantee that the Russians would undermine any peace agreement. Thus you would need something more tangible to actually get Russia to agree and abide, which is the problem with the notion of any brokered peace in Russia at the moment. The Russians won't abide by it because they don't want to and don't need to. They will undermine it continually, especially if the logical framework is that Ukraine is losing this war and will always lose regardless of what type of support it receives. That argument is either explicit or the subtext of every argument against providing Ukraine with support, which is seemingly said either into a vacuum or with no acknowledgement of how Russia behaves in geopolitics. Or it is done dishonestly, knowing exactly how Russia will behave, but said to give the appearance of plausible deniability on the part of the speaker. I'm leaning toward the latter given the posters here who have supported the notion.

Scholz does it again.

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The promised deliveries of modern air defense systems to Kyiv from Germany may be delayed until the end of the year. Deliveries of air defense systems from Germany to Ukraine are delayed due to the lack of permission from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

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In early June, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised Ukraine to provide IRIS-T "in the coming weeks."

On July 21, Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said that the German IRIS-T air defense systems, which should be transferred to Kyiv, are under production and should be ready by the "end of summer".

Now, "Welt am Sonntag, citing Ukrainian government officials, writes that delivery of one unit is expected before the 'end of the year'. However, as of publication, final approval has not been given."

A German government spokesperson responded to questions about promised timelines, possible manufacturing delays or financial issues by stating: “No information can be provided about this.” That's German for 'brick wall'.

And please note that these are not offensive weapons but are weapons to help defend the Ukrainian civilians from the daily cruise missiles fired at their cities. Not fired at military targets but at civilian centers, intended to kill and injure as many women and children as possible.

Scholz is no longer a stooge, he is now complicit.

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The promised deliveries of modern air defense systems to Kyiv from Germany may be delayed until the end of the year. Deliveries of air defense systems from Germany to Ukraine are delayed due to the lack of permission from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

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IDK if Germany is intentionally undermining Ukraine, or if it is promising equipment to Ukraine only to find out that it does not have the equipment it promised or the equipment that was promised does not work thanks to 30 years of Germany ignoring its military.

You sound really mature and level-headed.

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You sound really mature and level-headed.

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You sound like a tool.