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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:44 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:44 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Russia cuts off its cash cow if it does that. That depends on which nations opt to capitulate
They’ll just sell more to India and China. Expand to new poorer markets at a market discount, but still significant profit.
3
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:46 pm to DabosDynasty
AT a significant DISCOUNT like is already being done. Natural gas is more difficult as pipelines need to be built and even with instant approval will take sometime to be built over vast distances
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:48 pm to CitizenK
quote:
AT a significant DISCOUNT like is already being done. Natural gas is more difficult as pipelines need to be built and even with instant approval will take sometime to be built over vast distances
And some may have to go through some countries that won't allow Russia to do so.
Which would result in Russia trying to "liberate" said Countries.
Russia is screwed if Europe holds the line. If Europe chooses this route, expect Nuclear power to make a comeback, at least for a while.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:52 pm to magildachunks
quote:
And some may have to go through some countries that won't allow Russia to do so.
Which would result in Russia trying to "liberate" said Countries. Russia is screwed if Europe holds the line.
If Europe chooses this route, expect Nuclear power to make a comeback, at least for a while.
Which would probably result in Russia trying to “liberate” Kazakhstan who controls almost half of global uranium exports while there’s already not enough uranium mines to support current nuclear power needs.
None of the energy outcomes are pleasant.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:54 pm to DabosDynasty
The big question is: If NATO does get pulled into the fight because of Putin's dementia, does Russia get broken up into smaller countries after their inevitiable defeat?
Posted on 7/10/22 at 2:55 pm to magildachunks
Japan is reliant on LNG for its natural gas, including industrial. South Korea too. Both are still competitive in the world economy
Posted on 7/10/22 at 3:02 pm to magildachunks
Funny enough Lech Walesa, a former Polish President, has apparently said that’s essentially what needs to happen. Former non-russian populations that have been absorbed by Russia should be liberated for their own independence and Russia’s population reduced to 50 million.
Le Figaro Article
Saw it on Twitter and decided to find the source.
Le Figaro Article
quote:
Unless there is a complete change of political regime in Moscow, global security could therefore only be ensured by a dismemberment of current Russia, which has remained imperial in his eyes: "There are 60 peoples who have been annexed like the Ukrainians today. We should raise these peoples who have been annexed by Russia (...). We must either change Russia's political system or reduce it to a population of less than 50 million." The Russian Federation currently has 144 million inhabitants.
quote:
If he recognizes that the West has its own interests in expanding its influence and power, he stresses that he does so by a democratic, and therefore legitimate way: "We must understand that the West is developing its power through NATO, by the EU, by expanding but it is by democratic means. Russia does it through violence."
For the former leader of Solidarnosc, the world would now be cut back into two: "There are now two systems: on the one hand, democracies and NATO, which want to expand, but by democratic means, by soliciting the decisions of the peoples, on the other Russia and China, who resort to old methods of annexation."
Lech Walesa remains severe towards the West, which he believes he has misled in believing that Russia would become harmless. According to him, this mistake dates back to the Gorbachev years: "Russia should have been brought down. But Gorbachev was too smart for that. It was said to ourselves at the time: 'There was Stalin, Brezhnev, but Gorbachev, he is nice.' So we left them alone. Russia has waited for troubled times and now they want to continue as for centuries and continue to annex peoples to their empire. It was our mistake at the time. I wanted to do otherwise, but I wasn't allowed to do it. ”
Saw it on Twitter and decided to find the source.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 3:13 pm to DabosDynasty
If I understand it correctly, they would need to makw massive changes to their pipelines and that doesn't happen overnight
Posted on 7/10/22 at 3:15 pm to DabosDynasty
quote:
They’ll just sell more to India and China. Expand to new poorer markets at a market discount, but still significant profit.
Please tell me know how you can quit selling X amount of natural gas to one country and start selling the same amount of natural gas to another country at a discount and it’s good.
It’s better than nothing, but if can’t be beneficial to your economy.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 3:26 pm to doubleb
Not saying it’s good per say, or easy, but none of the options are.
They’ve already been pivoting to China via pipelines over the last decade or so and have greatly grown their LNG exports to China. They have multiple additional pipelines planned or started between the two.
Russia is also building 15 new tankers to transport LNG that will be completed between 2023-2025.
Don’t want to assume too much rational thinking on Russia’s part but I would assume the gap between these things coming online and shutting off Europe would be small by the time they pull the plug. If the war continues and the west continues to aid Ukraine, my thought has always been they’d mess with gas exports in the winter and freeze the EU which would be close to completion for at least some of the tankers. Not sure on target dates for the pipelines.
They’ve already been pivoting to China via pipelines over the last decade or so and have greatly grown their LNG exports to China. They have multiple additional pipelines planned or started between the two.
Russia is also building 15 new tankers to transport LNG that will be completed between 2023-2025.
Don’t want to assume too much rational thinking on Russia’s part but I would assume the gap between these things coming online and shutting off Europe would be small by the time they pull the plug. If the war continues and the west continues to aid Ukraine, my thought has always been they’d mess with gas exports in the winter and freeze the EU which would be close to completion for at least some of the tankers. Not sure on target dates for the pipelines.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 3:50 pm to DabosDynasty
Aren't all the European contract good through December and then none have renewed or something of the such.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:06 pm to Abstract Queso Dip
quote:
April 27 (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) has halted gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland, reviving European supply concerns as Russia and the West clash over Moscow's demand for payments in roubles. read more Poland and Bulgaria have long-term gas deals with Gazprom that expire at the end of the year. They accuse Gazprom of breaching those contracts.
Looks like just Bulgaria and Poland who got cut off early with expiring contracts anyway.
Will be interesting to see how this all pans out for Europe. Poland is moving to more gas from Norway plus and Baltic Sea port terminal for US shipments. Bulgaria is moving to Greek gas, but that pipeline isn’t quite done yet, plus it doesn’t fully replace Russian gas.
If Europe goes dark or cold it will be interesting to see if the German Govt gets significant pressure to turn to the Nordstream pipelines which I believe could fully supply them and would make them the key terminal for the rest of Europe. Bing bang boom, all of Europe hates the Germans again, potentially leaving Germany with Russia as a cautious ally once more.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:16 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I am not a fricking coward
Yes you are.
quote:
I will not die a coward,
You probably will.
quote:
I hate nothing more than a coward.
That is ironic since you are in fact a coward.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:23 pm to WeeWee
I’m not. You’re a warmonger LARPing not willing to do what you’re advocating for. I’m saying let’s take a step back and analyze the situation, you on the other hand want to go balls to the wall and escalate it. Go frick yourself.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:25 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I’m not. You’re a warmonger LARPing not willing to do what you’re advocating for. I’m saying let’s take a step back and analyze the situation, you on the other hand want to go balls to the wall and escalate it. Go frick yourself.
Being a yellow coward is the only thing worse than being a red commie like LW.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:28 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Being a yellow coward is the only thing worse than being a red commie like LW.
You’re mistaking caution for cowardice.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:35 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Being a yellow coward is the only thing worse than being a red commie like LW.
You’re mistaking caution for cowardice.
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:37 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:41 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
OMLandshark
Is your mother ashamed that she raised a coward?
Posted on 7/10/22 at 4:44 pm to doubleb
quote:
Please tell me know how you can quit selling X amount of natural gas to one country and start selling the same amount of natural gas to another country at a discount and it’s good.
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