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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:41 am to
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:41 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 6/16/26 at 11:22 pm
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74068 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:41 am to
quote:

You have an incredibly defeatist attitude.


I’m not involved in the war in any way. I’m just an outside observer.

quote:

If you can't win, why even play the game right? You think fighting back is pointless if you can't win?


Your argument here lays bare your complete ignorance of geopolitical matters. The fact I’ve already on multiple occasions explained why suing for peace is sometimes the better move than to continue fight only makes your ignorance look worse because now you’re willfully ignorant.

First, you have to understand the nature of what war really is. War is a means for one nation to compel another to do something it would not necessarily do otherwise. I’ll give you a simple example:

Let’s say tomorrow the US demands Canada ceed British Columbia to us or we will invade. Canada rejects the demand and we invade. Canada resists, taking and causing terrible losses for both sides. But the US keeps advancing. The US has a much larger capacity to absorb losses than Canada. The US has much more military power than Canada. Within a few months it’s obvious the longer the fighting continues the weaker Canada will become and the more of British Columbia the US will take. It’s at this point Canada would be better served to sue for peace and begin negotiating an end of the war. You see, most wars end with a negotiated peace. How those negotiations go depends on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the negotiating parties. When peace talks do start, each country wants to come to the table to begin talks from as much of a standpoint of strength as possible. If one of the countries, Canada in this example, is losing negotiating power daily on the battlefield as long as the fighting continues, then they’re only hurting themselves by continuing fighting.

If you’re really a “fan” of Ukraine, then you’d be honest enough to asses the situation and conclude Ukraine has nothing left to gain and much to lose by continuing the war.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:42 am to
quote:

. I’m sorry to the people in Ukraine, but it’s not worth the risk


He thinks Ike was a pussy.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:42 am to
quote:

I have no love for Russia. I’ve hated Russia since I was an 18 year old zit faced tanker in West Germany waiting on the Soviet 5th Shock Army to storm through the Fulda Gap. But I’m sorry, the only ones who benefit from this war continuing is Russia and Western politicians and defense contractors pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into Ukraine to keep an already lost war going. I’m sorry, that’s just the cold hard truth.


We may disagree in general, but I appreciate your background and general lack of the Russian troll style responses, that have become so common in here, in your disagreement.

Genuinely asking because I’m interested, I have no point to make, but from what we’ve seen so far from Russia does it at all alter how you saw the Cold War? I respect your belief Russia will inevitably win, but the publicly available evidence they’re doing so very inefficiently paired with your experience has me interested. Genuinely curious because you lived it about as close as you can, at least that’s how I take your post.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39825 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:45 am to
Taiwan isn't worth the risk either dude.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39825 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:46 am to
quote:

He thinks Ike was a pussy.


Nah, OML is just inconsistent with his logic.
Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29109 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:47 am to
quote:

Gotcha. So you don't respect borders.
Yet another fail, Roger.
quote:

You only respect borders when its convenient for your argument.
You disregard features of language when it's convenient for yours.
quote:

I baited you with the precise question of do you respect borders, you said yes.
And then you ignored the part where I called out your "bait" as an ambiguous term that requires context. You have repeatedly failed to acknowledge that.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:48 am to
quote:

If you’re really a “fan” of Ukraine


At least the fatass reddit posters had the nerve to follow up on their convictions, and go try to fight.

Americans love war that kills other peoples kids.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:52 am to
quote:

And then you ignored the part where I called out your "bait" as an ambiguous term that requires context


No. I didn't.

You lied. You don't respect borders. You only respect borders when your war mongering arse benefits from it.

War mongers are always keyboard warriors. 100% of the time.
Posted by DabosDynasty
Member since Apr 2017
5180 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:57 am to
quote:

So long as they don’t directly attack a member of NATO, it is not inevitable. You need to convince me that Putin is a Hitler or Stalin before I think that’s inevitable.


Putin has likened himself to Peter the Great who began the Russian empire that grew to encompass modern day Ukraine and the Baltics, which are NATO members…
Posted by alpinetiger
Salt Lake City
Member since Apr 2017
5864 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:59 am to
That is one big dog.

Is it me, or all these people taking CIA/State Department crazy pills? Kissinger - who I respect but disagree with - is even on the side of no US involvement. But CircleK who apparently sells oil field equipment is all on board.

Posted by Korkstand
Member since Nov 2003
29109 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 11:59 am to
quote:

No. I didn't.
You did, and you continue to. You have yet to acknowledge that context clues influence meaning, and that in this case it's the difference between moving a border and crossing one. It's a really simple concept, Roger. Most of us learned about it in elementary school.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

No. I didn't.
You did, and you continue to.


Not at all. You lied. You don't respect borders.

You only "respect borders" when its politically expedient for you.

Youre a hypocrite which isn't news to you.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4693 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

Let’s say tomorrow the US demands Canada ceed British Columbia to us or we will invade


I honestly think you make a great comparison to the situation.

The part I think it falls flat on is that you look at it just through who has more guns and bodies. If that was the case the US would have won Vietnam and Afghanistan (as in they would still be how we left)

It appears to ignore the local support (American in your example) and the outside support of both guns and trade restrictions. So say Europe and China stop trade with the the US due to the invasion? I think that changes the calculus at the negotiating table. Not saying Russia won't end up "winning", but to ignore all of the other factors beyond guns and bodies is to only conclude in a vacuum.

For example, maybe Russia could benefit from a prolonged conflict because the American support stops and they can finish taking it all over. Or maybe it hurts them because the local population stops supporting it and dammit they want their McDonald's back. Probably a combination of those in reality, but I think it makes the point well enough.

Russia lost in Afghanistan due to the prolonged nature of the fight. History may or may not repeat here, but it's at least worth noting.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39825 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

If you’re really a “fan” of Ukraine, then you’d be honest enough to asses the situation and conclude Ukraine has nothing left to gain and much to lose by continuing the war.



But you are looking at this from only one point of view. By the same Clausewitzian metric, does Russia have anything to gain by abiding by any peace? They've been seemingly able to withstand sanctions, have more manpower, have key resources that parties not directly subject to the war need, and have a leadership structure that can withstand public pressure. What incentive do they have to abide by any peace agreement at this moment?

Another thing I want to ask you is about battle rate casualty patterns. The estimated rate for offensive operations depends on the specific theater, but in urban operations it is estimated that offensive operations will have a rate of 30-50 casualties per 1,000 troops per day. For defensive urban operations, the estimates are between 10-15 casualties per 1,000 troops per day. The estimates we have from sources for the Ukrainians suggest between 200 (around 6,000 a month) and 1,000 (would be around 30,000 a month, which beggars belief), are we seeing casualty pattern rates above estimates for defensive operations for the Ukrainians? And are casualty rates for Russia far lower than 30-50 casualties per 1,000 troops?
Posted by alpinetiger
Salt Lake City
Member since Apr 2017
5864 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

But you are looking at this from only one point of view. By the same Clausewitzian metric, does Russia have anything to gain by abiding by any peace? They've been seemingly able to withstand sanctions, have more manpower, have key resources that parties not directly subject to the war need, and have a leadership structure that can withstand public pressure. What incentive do they have to abide by any peace agreement at this moment?

Another thing I want to ask you is about battle rate casualty patterns. The estimated rate for offensive operations depends on the specific theater, but in urban operations it is estimated that offensive operations will have a rate of 30-50 casualties per 1,000 troops per day. For defensive urban operations, the estimates are between 10-15 casualties per 1,000 troops per day. The estimates we have from sources for the Ukrainians suggest between 200 (around 6,000 a month) and 1,000 (would be around 30,000 a month, which beggars belief), are we seeing casualty pattern rates above estimates for defensive operations for the Ukrainians? And are casualty rates for Russia far lower than 30-50 casualties per 1,000 troops?
You type well. I'm guessing 80 words per minute.
Posted by crazy4lsu
Member since May 2005
39825 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

You type well. I'm guessing 80 words per minute.



Do you need me to type slower so you can catch up? I can 'hunt and peck' like a retard boomer so your lead-ridden brain can understand it too. I'm a man of many talents.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:14 pm to
quote:

, which are NATO members…


Archaic alliances led to WWI. Hopefully we're smarter than that today.

Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42791 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:14 pm to
quote:



Good. Lets do that all across the board. Start by returning all native land, including national parks, to the natives.

?????????
Europeans took the land. The US bolted and we took some more,
That’s how things worked back then. Was it “right”? No.

quote:


We promised Hungary help in a coup against the Soviets in 1956, and Ike chose to protect the American population and taxpayer first. That's why he's considered one of the best.


And Russia kept pushing in Europe, Asia and in Cuba.
After decades of the Cold War do you think we saved money?
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
299716 posts
Posted on 7/5/22 at 12:17 pm to
quote:


And Russia kept pushing in Europe, Asia and in Cuba.
After decades of the Cold War do you think we saved money?


We didn't have a nuclear war in 1956, which is what Ike tried to avoid.

Are you saying he was wrong?
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