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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/21/22 at 11:47 pm to Stidham8
Posted on 6/21/22 at 11:47 pm to Stidham8
I've read several times now that the Russian Military was given until the end of this weekend to capture all of Luhansk Oblast.
That could go along with the reports others have seen about a change in command for Russia.
If Ukraine feels like it's truly threatened by the recent Russian gains, then we should see them fall back to their next line of defense.
I don't know that I would categorize a breakthrough in one area (which is all we've seen) that has been under constant Russian attack for 2 months as a Collapse. It might be a localized collapse, but I've seen nothing that would indicate the entire eastern front is collapsing. That sounds like hyperbole.
If Russia succeeds in fully capturing the rest of Luhansk Oblast, other than now possessing the whole oblast...so what? It's not like Severodonestk is militarily important or a focal point of the war. It certainly won't represent the end of the war.
That could go along with the reports others have seen about a change in command for Russia.
If Ukraine feels like it's truly threatened by the recent Russian gains, then we should see them fall back to their next line of defense.
I don't know that I would categorize a breakthrough in one area (which is all we've seen) that has been under constant Russian attack for 2 months as a Collapse. It might be a localized collapse, but I've seen nothing that would indicate the entire eastern front is collapsing. That sounds like hyperbole.
If Russia succeeds in fully capturing the rest of Luhansk Oblast, other than now possessing the whole oblast...so what? It's not like Severodonestk is militarily important or a focal point of the war. It certainly won't represent the end of the war.
This post was edited on 6/21/22 at 11:51 pm
2
Posted on 6/21/22 at 11:59 pm to Chromdome35
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537693387494674432
quote:
A VDV VK page and one of the moderators of the Lost Armour website are both claiming that Andrey Serdyukov has been replaced by Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinskiy as the commander of the Russian VDV.
The VDV VK page claims that Major General Anatoly Kontsevoy has been promoted to the Chief of Staff of the VDV. He previously commanded the 45th Spetsnaz Brigade. He deployed to Kazakhstan in January and previously to Syria. 3/
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 12:00 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 12:04 am to Stidham8
After looking for addtional information, I can't find any indication that the Ukrainian Eastern frontline is collapsing.
Russia has made a break through in the area between Popsana and Severodonetsk, but that's not even a kilometer wide out of a front that stretches over 2000 KM.
A map from my post earlier today showing the area in detail...The shaded red area is where the breakthrough occurred...hardly the entire eastern front.
Russia has made a break through in the area between Popsana and Severodonetsk, but that's not even a kilometer wide out of a front that stretches over 2000 KM.
quote:
Worrying news from the Donbas.
Russian troops have been able to capture Toshkivka, Pidlisne and Mala Dolyna after successfully crossing the Siversky Donets river southwest of Sievierodonetsk.
The Zolote village salient is now in danger of encirclement.
A map from my post earlier today showing the area in detail...The shaded red area is where the breakthrough occurred...hardly the entire eastern front.
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 12:10 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 12:31 am to Chromdome35
quote:
the Russian Military was given until the end of this weekend to capture all of Luhansk Oblast.
I don’t believe that’s true
Putin has said several times that the war will continue until all goals are completed. Ie, there’s no timeline.
The Russians are also fighting in a way that minimizes their casualties, but at the cost of speed.
Finally, this isn’t the US.
Putin doesn’t need to worry about war fatigue. He doesn’t need to score flashy victories for political purposes. The Russians will support the war till the end.
quote:
Military was given until the end of this weekend
I believe that’s Ukrainian propaganda.
First, Russia won’t capture the city by the end of the weekend.
But making that claim allows the Ukrainians to declare victory when they’re still there on Monday morning. And even when they’re defeated, they can still claim victory for allegedly delaying the Russians.
Two, this is how Zelenskys people operate. They are very concerned about bad press, and they believe good press is essential to the survival of the war effort.
Which is why we had the fake stories about Snake Island, but also the very real attempts to recapture it, which squandered valuable hardware, and the lives veteran soldiers. And for a prize of limited value, that they would not be able to hold, even if they did capture it.
Both the Pentagon and the Ukrainian military advised Zelensky to withdraw from Lisichansk, but Zelensky not only ignored that advice, he ordered the Ukrainian Army to reinforce the city, and sent soldiers back into Severodonetsk after they had retreated.
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 12:44 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 4:22 am to RLDSC FAN
No indication from this report that the Ukrainians tried to occupy the island.
22 June, 2022
The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the Russian SAMs and radars on Zmiinyi Island, a satellite image of the island after the strike was released
During the attack on Zmiinyi Island, the Ukrainian servicemen hit the Russian Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system, along with a radar station.
The Operational Command “South” reports about this.
Also, during the attack on the positions of the invasion forces at the temporarily occupied Ukrainian Black Sea island, the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces.
“Following up the operation to defeat enemy units at the Zmiinyi Island, the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft artillery system, radar station, and vehicles were hit. The final results are being investigated,” stated the Operational Command “South”.
The day before, the Ukrainian servicemen reported about a strike of the Defense Forces on the invader positions on Zmiinyi Island. The Defense Forces used combined forces and equipment.
A satellite image released by the American website The War Zone was obtained from Planet Labs. It demonstrates the evidence supporting the Ukrainian military’s claims that they have recently conducted air and artillery strikes on Russian positions on Zmiyinyi Island in the western part of the Black Sea.
Details of these strikes had first begun to emerge on June 20 along with news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had hit the Russian-occupied gas drilling rigs of Chornomornaftogaz, which were seized by the Crimea`s self-proclaimed authorities back in 2014.
Link contains before and after satellite images.
Defense industry of Ukraine
22 June, 2022
The Ukrainian Armed Forces hit the Russian SAMs and radars on Zmiinyi Island, a satellite image of the island after the strike was released
During the attack on Zmiinyi Island, the Ukrainian servicemen hit the Russian Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system, along with a radar station.
The Operational Command “South” reports about this.
Also, during the attack on the positions of the invasion forces at the temporarily occupied Ukrainian Black Sea island, the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces.
“Following up the operation to defeat enemy units at the Zmiinyi Island, the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft artillery system, radar station, and vehicles were hit. The final results are being investigated,” stated the Operational Command “South”.
The day before, the Ukrainian servicemen reported about a strike of the Defense Forces on the invader positions on Zmiinyi Island. The Defense Forces used combined forces and equipment.
A satellite image released by the American website The War Zone was obtained from Planet Labs. It demonstrates the evidence supporting the Ukrainian military’s claims that they have recently conducted air and artillery strikes on Russian positions on Zmiyinyi Island in the western part of the Black Sea.
Details of these strikes had first begun to emerge on June 20 along with news that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had hit the Russian-occupied gas drilling rigs of Chornomornaftogaz, which were seized by the Crimea`s self-proclaimed authorities back in 2014.
Link contains before and after satellite images.
Defense industry of Ukraine
Posted on 6/22/22 at 4:43 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 June 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
• Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large number of reserve units to the Donbas.
The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) publishes casualty figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DPR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DPR casualty rate is equivalent to around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 22 June 2022
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
• Heavy shelling continues as Russia pushes to envelop the Sieverodonetsk area via Izium in the
north and Popasna in the south. Russia is highly likely preparing to attempt to deploy a large number of reserve units to the Donbas.
The Russian authorities have not released the overall number of military casualties in Ukraine since 25 March. However, the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) publishes casualty figures for DPR forces. As of 16 June, the DPR acknowledged 2128 military personnel killed in action, and 8897 wounded, since the start of 2022. The DPR casualty rate is equivalent to around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. It is highly likely that DPR forces are equipped with outdated weapons and equipment. On both sides, the ability to generate and deploy reserve units to the front is likely becoming increasingly critical to the outcome of the war.
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:18 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Image BB is a good option. It’s simple and it doesn’t require registration.
Thank you
ETA: I’ve tried 3 diff link types and it either posts nothing or gives a site error.
ETA: figured something out
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 6:51 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:38 am to cypher
quote:
The DPR casualty rate is equivalent to around 55 per cent of its original force, which highlights the extraordinary attrition Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas
Lima Whiskey assures me this is impossible because Russia continues to operate in a cautious manner to minimize losses
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:45 am to Chromdome35
quote:
After looking for addtional information, I can't find any indication that the Ukrainian Eastern frontline is collapsing
I did come across this
quote:
Massive Russian Advances have occurred over the last several hours in the Luhansk Region of Eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian Forces are reportedly in Full-Retreat at some Positions along the Frontline as Defensive Forces are being mustered in the Region for an Active Defense. LINK
And this
quote:
The situation in the east looks even more precarious today, but as @DefMon3 writes in the subsequent tweets, it is not clear if this is due to the Ukrainians deliberately falling back or the Russians breaking through.
How the situation develops hinges in part on this question.
@The_Lookout_N
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 6:59 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:48 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
#Ukraine: A Kamikaze drone struck the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery, in #Rostov Oblast, Russia; causing a large fire.
Although the precise type is unclear, it appears to be based on the UA PD-1 or PD-2 series of reconnaissance UAVs. The area is around 150km from the front line. LINK
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:50 am to DabosDynasty
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:53 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Russia continues to operate in a cautious manner to minimize losses
They are minimizing Russian losses while using Donbas separatists as poorly armed canon fodder. But they are running out of separatists to conscript. I have no idea how the residents of the Donbas can support Russia after this is over. My guess is that they will move in Russians in large numbers and any locals that cause problems will end up relocated to Siberia.
Posted on 6/22/22 at 6:54 am to DabosDynasty
Some NATO concerns
quote:
#Turkyie / #Russia:
BREAKING;
A Russian made Orlan 10 UAV has crash landed in Turkiye’s Kurtün district of Gümüshane.
Many questions will need to be answered by Russia or other neighboring countries who owns Russian made UAVs. LINK
quote:
Estonia's defence ministry accuses Russia of "multiple border violations" by helicopters and simulating missile attacks on the country ahead of Nato's summit next week
quote:
#Estonia, #Lithuania, and #Denmark which are all members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (#NATO) alliance have reported incursions into their airspace by Russian forces who filed no flight plans and turned off their transponders.
Read More:
LINK
Posted on 6/22/22 at 7:10 am to StormyMcMan
90,000 BPD crude unit only not even a simple hydroskimming refinery with a reformer to make gasoline.
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:20 am to StormyMcMan
This is why the world hates Russia and always will. All they understand is force and only deal in fear. They are thugs. NATO meeting coming up so let’s try to act like the big bully on the street by threatening member’s airspace. Now the world knows they are all talk and no go from the war in Ukraine. Any real military would destroy them in short order with their terrible leadership and outdated equipment.
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:23 am to Tigris
quote:
They are minimizing Russian losses while using Donbas separatists
The Russians are losing more soldiers per month than the US lost in the entire 17 years we were in Iraq and Afghanistan combined.
The Russians have already roughly doubled their total "official" losses from 10 years in Afghanistan
Say what you will, but they are not attempting to minimize their losses. I mean just look to their attempt to cross a river in the same spot TWICE (reported a possible 3rd, but not confirmed). That's not trying to minimize anything.
ETA: And the above has nothing to do with the possible outcomes of the war, just stating that Russia is not trying to minimize their losses or being cautious as alleged.
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 8:26 am
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:23 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Putin has said several times that the war will continue until all goals are completed. Ie, there’s no timeline.
What are the goals again?
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:40 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
The #Belarusian Defense Ministry announced the start of mobilization exercises in the #Homel region.
The press release says that the exercises are planned and will be held from June 22 to July 1 under the guidance of the deputy chief of the General Staff.
LINK
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:49 am to crazy4lsu
Goals? It changes by the day. People like Lima just keeping moving the goalposts and saying that was the target all along. It’s a farce. They don’t want Ukraine to exist, period.
This post was edited on 6/22/22 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 6/22/22 at 8:55 am to CitizenK
quote:
90,000 BPD crude unit only not even a simple hydroskimming refinery with a reformer to make gasoline
So not a big deal in terms of what was hit? Not sure what to make of this
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