Kiplinger’s Economic Outlook for All 50 States, 2020

quote:

---

Texas:

Population: 28,702,000

Unemployment rate: 3.4%

2019 job growth: 2.3% (290,600)

2020 job growth: 1.6% (207,200)

Texas entered 2019 with brisk economic momentum within its key industries including energy development and high tech, which will again underpin solid growth though at a slightly slower pace than in 2018. Texas has an outsized presence in both the energy and high-tech sectors. 420 oil and gas rigs are at work in Texas, roughly half the total drilling in the nation, and the United States now is a net exporter of oil. New oil and gas pipelines have been added, and more are under construction to boost exports as more oil reaches Gulf Coast ports. However, a decline in oil prices this year because of the possibility that the trade war will cause slower global growth has taken the edge off the boom times in the oil patch, and Midland and Odessa are seeing only modest growth currently.

Texas already has a well-developed presence in high tech, and that's growing as investment disperses beyond Silicon Valley. Apple is investing $1 billion in a new campus in Austin that will employ up to 5,000 people. Trade uncertainty is a headwind, but the preliminary agreement between the United States, Mexico and Canada on a new free trade pact potentially will unlock more investment in export-related industries if it is ratified by lawmakers in all three countries. As icing on the cake, Texas is home to multiple military installations, which will benefit from increased defense spending as do the contractors who bid for military business.

The Dallas side of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area continues to lead the state with 3.8% employment growth. Houston, the second-largest metro area, and Kileen-Temple are above the state average. Previously red-hot Austin, with nine straight years of 3% growth or better, has seen growth downshift to around 2%, which is perhaps a more sustainable level.

---

quote:

---

Louisiana also is affected by the Trump administration's tariffs against China and mounting trade tensions with Europe.

---

quote:

---

That’s a 50% improvement for La. #positives

---

quote:

---

2019 0.01% (2,000)
2020 0.02% (4,000)

---

quote:

---

Alabama

POPULATION: 4,888,000

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.1%

2019 JOB GROWTH: 1.8% (37,000 new jobs)

2020 JOB GROWTH: 1.2% (25,000 new jobs)

Alabama's job growth has begun to pick up this year. 2019 job growth of 1.8% would be its fastest growth since 2005. Tuscaloosa, Decatur, and the east side of Mobile Bay are showing the strongest job growth at the moment, all around 3%. Its August unemployment rate of 3.1% is a record for the state.

Construction is an especially strong growth area. Alabama has a growing automotive industry, with three vehicle manufacturing plants, an engine plant, and Toyota/Mazda building a new vehicle plant in Huntsville by 2021 that should amount to 4,000 jobs. Alabama's reliance on the auto industry could hurt it a bit if the industry slows down later this year.

Amazon will create 1,500 jobs at a fulfillment center in Birmingham next year. Blue Origin will create 300 jobs in Huntsville at a rocket engine plant, also next year. Airbus is adding 430 employees to a new assembly line in Mobile.

---

quote:

---

Blue Origin will create 300 jobs in Huntsville at a rocket engine plant

---

quote:

---

2019 job growth: 0.1% (2,000)

2020 job growth: 0.2% (4,000)

---

quote:

---

2019 job growth: 0.1% (2,000)

2020 job growth: 0.2% (4,000)

---

quote:

---

Employment in Louisiana will rise by only about 0.1% this year, down from even last year's lackluster pace

---

quote:

---

Florida

Population: 21,299,000

Unemployment rate: 3.3%

2019 job growth: 2.5% (222,300)

2020 job growth: 1.9% (173,300)

Florida will see jobs grow by 2.5% in 2019, the fastest growth of any state outside the West. Business services, health care, and construction will see continued strong gains, though construction will moderate from super-strong to just strong. Growth in tourism will also moderate after very strong growth: 2018 was the eighth year in a row of tourism growth.

Florida's economic growth is underpinned by strong population growth, which in turn is the result of the nation's highest level of in-migration, especially from high-tax Northeastern states, but also internationally. Florida is one of only seven states without an income tax.

The Orlando area will, once again, see the hottest growth, along with the nearby Atlantic coast of Palm Bay to Titusville. Lockheed Martin's new facility brought 1,000 jobs. The area around Cape Canaveral is seeing the development of a space industry, with satellite and rocket manufacturing, and commercial satellite-launching facilities being built by Blue Origin and Firefly. SpaceX won a contract from the Air Force. OneWeb Satellites will begin satellite assembly there. Boeing and United Launch Systems are also there.

Development along the southwest coast from Naples to Fort Myers is also heating up, despite periodic encounters with "red tide" algae blooms off the coast.

A major expansion of Pensacola's airport aviation maintenance facilities will take place over the next several years, resulting in a gain of 1,600 jobs. Panama City, a popular beach spot in the panhandle, is seeing tourism picking up, but is still recovering from Hurricane Michael last year.

---