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RLDSC FAN
Los Angeles Dodgers Fan
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
45558 posts

Jobs report for July: 528,000 jobs added

quote:

Payrolls rise 528,000, more than double estimates

Hot jobs data bolsters case for 75 Bps Fed hike

Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% from 3.6%

Labor-force participation rate drops

Treasury yields surge while stock futures tumble


quote:

There’s no sign of a recession or even a slowdown in the jobs numbers. Headline job creation, at 528,000, was more than double what was expected. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 3.5%, matching the pre-pandemic low. And wage growth defied expectations for moderation, staying at 5.2%.

This is only the first of four important reports that will determine the outcome of next month’s Fed meeting: There’s another jobs report before then, as well as two consumer price index readings. But investors are seriously marking up the odds of another hike of 75 basis points instead of 50 in September based on these numbers.

Total payroll employment finally eclipsed the February 2020 peak last month, erasing the pandemic shortfall. It’s an important milestone, but of course, the population is higher, too, since then. So, the employment-to-population ratio is still just 60%, versus 61.2% in February 2020, and the same measure for the prime working-age demographic is 80%, versus 80.5% pre-pandemic.

The only real “down arrow” in the headline numbers was labor force participation: It ticked down to 62.1% in July. But that was arguably tempered by the fact that prime working-age participation ticked up, to 82.4%. That suggests a strong job market is still pulling people off the sidelines and into employment.



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This post was edited on 8/5 at 10:57 am


Jfk Jr
US Marine Corps Fan
Member since Jul 2022
591 posts

Good news!


Pendulum
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Jan 2009
6307 posts
 Online 

Inflation starts with a P for persistent. Now we will have to see if the FED really does have nuts or not.
This post was edited on 8/5 at 10:58 am


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100
Mingo Was His NameO
LSU Fan
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts

quote:

Payrolls rise 528,000,


quote:

Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% from 3.6%

Labor-force participation rate drops


This is kind of hard to reconcile


wileyjones
Member since May 2014
1306 posts

when adjusted for government frickery



xxTIMMYxx
Member since Aug 2019
17562 posts

People getting multiple jobs


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1314
LSUtoBOOT
LSU Fan
Member since Aug 2012
8925 posts

I’ll take a proper gander at this data when I have some time.


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47
redstick13
US Space Force Fan
Continental US
Member since Feb 2007
34821 posts

Britney Griner did this


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67
bad93ex
US Navy Fan
Member since Sep 2018
16498 posts

quote:

Hillary Clinton
@HillaryClinton
·
2h
528,000 jobs in July and a 3.5% unemployment rate.

A historic deal to reduce inflation, invest in health care, and tackle climate change with clean energy.

The fastest decline in gas prices we've seen in a decade.

Thanks, Biden.


So much winning that you can't even tell.


Geauxgurt
Member since Sep 2013
8776 posts

quote:

This is kind of hard to reconcile


This is because people started new positions in July. Hell, plenty of people moving into nee titles likely did so in July , so this leads to double counting.

The drop in participation is the real thing to care about and it is a negative and notice that the number value fir the drop was not given.

Also, summer jobs always increase the numbers this time of year. It’s not a shock. Just playing with numbers to force out their narrative.


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Member since 2001
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roadGator
USA Fan
Member since Feb 2009
124438 posts

quote:

There’s no sign of a recession


Did the witches from the view write the above?


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125
AbitaFan08
LSU Fan
Boston, MA
Member since Apr 2008
24857 posts

:bidenididthatgif:


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51
mmmmmbeeer
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
6770 posts

quote:

This is because people started new positions in July. Hell, plenty of people moving into nee titles likely did so in July , so this leads to double counting.

The drop in participation is the real thing to care about and it is a negative and notice that the number value fir the drop was not given.

Also, summer jobs always increase the numbers this time of year. It’s not a shock. Just playing with numbers to force out their narrative.


Sometimes it's just easier to say, "dang, that's some good news!".

This incessant need to discount anything that is objectively positive because of "muh politics" is pretty sad to see.


mmmmmbeeer
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
6770 posts

quote:

when adjusted for government frickery


ShadowStats? Who the frick are they? And why do they think 25% of people are unemployed?


Scruffy
USA Fan
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
69569 posts

quote:

Labor-force participation rate drops
That doesn’t seem good.

Rest of it is.

And why would stock futures fall if this is good news?
This post was edited on 8/5 at 11:25 am


Mingo Was His NameO
LSU Fan
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
25455 posts

quote:

This incessant need to discount anything that is objectively positive because of "muh politics" is pretty sad to see.



But it's not necessarily positive, which is the point. You should try to understand the actual numbers.


SlimTigerSlap
Member since Apr 2022
744 posts

quote:

Good news!


You're legit getting downvoted. Amazing.


notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
52894 posts

quote:

This incessant need to discount anything that is objectively positive because of "muh politics" is pretty sad to see.


It’s def always a mix on these responses. If it’s bad news it’s always considered to be 100% factual. If it’s good news there has to be manipulated data. LOL

I think we are still headed for a recession and today’s data just means the federal reserve will raise rates .75 next meeting instead of the .50 some had hoped for.


msutiger
Louisiana Tech Fan
Shreveport
Member since Jul 2008
67831 posts

quote:

The fastest decline in gas prices we've seen in a decade.


My first thought on this is “There is no way Americans are dumb enough to give Biden credit for halfway fixing a problem he created.”

My second thought on this is “Yes, they absolutely are.”


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273
mmmmmbeeer
Georgia Fan
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
6770 posts

quote:

But it's not necessarily positive, which is the point. You should try to understand the actual numbers.


I'm thinking of it in terms of economic contraction. Along with you guys, I'm not really a fan of redefining what constitutes a recession as we saw happen when Q2 GDP was released. We can all debate the severity of a recession but it's a damn recession.

This many jobs added in a recession is unheard of and tells me that, SO FAR, this has signs of being a very light recession. 525,000 people don't usually get hired while economic activity drops. It's odd, but I'm taking it as good news.


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