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Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:26 pm to wileyjones
quote:
when adjusted for government frickery
Is this really saying that a quarter of the workforce is unemployed?
Based on what??
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:28 pm to Pendulum
It’s crazy that so many people listen to the BS coming out of this administration when it comes to economics. Jobs always LAG in an inflationary economy. Lay offs will come if inflation stays where it is and Potato Head gets his retarded spending bill through the house. This is what happens when career politicians get in power and are used by the progressive elite.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:30 pm to RLDSC FAN
quote:
There’s no sign of a recession
Besides the universally used metric to determine a recession of two straight quarters of GDP decline.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:32 pm to StupidBinder
quote:The labor participation rate is 62%.
Is this really saying that a quarter of the workforce is unemployed?
Even accounting for age-related aspects, there is no way that unemployment is truly 3.5%.
It is a situation, much like how inflation is calculated, where certain components are subtracted to make it better.
It makes no sense.
This isn’t anything new, but it is incredibly disingenuous.
This post was edited on 8/5/22 at 12:33 pm
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:41 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The labor participation rate is 62%. Even accounting for age-related aspects, there is no way that unemployment is truly 3.5%.
It is a situation, much like how inflation is calculated, where certain components are subtracted to make it better.
It makes no sense.
This isn’t anything new, but it is incredibly disingenuous.
I don’t disagree with you, but as long as there is consistency in the adjustments then at least you can rely on trends to give you an accurate description of reality.
That seems better than pulling numbers like 25% out of thin air.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:44 pm to StupidBinder
What percentage of able bodied adults do you think are working?
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:45 pm to RLDSC FAN
I am currently selling a bridge in Brooklyn if anyone is interested.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:47 pm to StupidBinder
quote:I am not disagreeing.
I don’t disagree with you, but as long as there is consistency in the adjustments then at least you can rely on trends to give you an accurate description of reality.
The issue here is that both variables changed in opposite directions, which makes this method of calculation even more flawed.
It would be one thing if Labor participation rate remained stable or increased along with the addition of jobs.
It is a whole different thing when it goes down with an addition of jobs.
It is simply too screwy.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:50 pm to Jones
quote:
What percentage of able bodied adults do you think are working?
I don’t know, but I’m not sure that would be a useful stat anyway.
There are plenty of able bodied adults who choose not to work. That’s not a reflection of the availability of jobs (which is what we really should care about).
Posted on 8/5/22 at 12:57 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The issue here is that both variables changed in opposite directions, which makes this method of calculation even more flawed.
It would be one thing if Labor participation rate remained stable or increased along with the addition of jobs.
It is a whole different thing when it goes down with an addition of jobs.
It is simply too screwy.
Yeah it’s definitely screwy, but those two metrics could still be directionally correct.
The labor market is just weird right now and it’s been weird since the pandemic started. There are industries and even entire sectors that just can’t reasonably raise wages fast enough to get enough people to fill their jobs. And at the same time, an unprecedented number of people have been walking away from jobs for the past two years.
This post was edited on 8/5/22 at 12:58 pm
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:01 pm to Scruffy
quote:Stock market is addicted to low rates. Good jobs news means Fed will likely continuing rate hikes.
And why would stock futures fall if this is good news?
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:04 pm to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:25 pm to notiger1997
quote:
We are already in one. We had 2 quarters of declining GDP.
quote:If you didn't feel the pain of $5/gallon gas + a least a 30% increase in your grocery and household goods bill over the last 6-8 months then good on you.
True, but it’s not a normal economy or recession.
People aren’t feeling pain just yet. It’s coming though.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:29 pm to RLDSC FAN
Can this be read as folks are taking second jobs? Jobs were added, but participation in the job market was flat or went down. The unemployment rate would be a factor of an imperfect calculation of those variables, so that number moving isn't in a vacuum interesting. If less people are working but multiple jobs are counted as two people working, I'm not sure we can rely on that data for economic trends.
It's good news that jobs are out there for people, but having to work multiple jobs to be able to afford the rising cost of living isn't necessarily a great thing.
It's good news that jobs are out there for people, but having to work multiple jobs to be able to afford the rising cost of living isn't necessarily a great thing.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:33 pm to RLDSC FAN
Are those all govt jobs?
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:41 pm to kywildcatfanone
Household Survey
Full Time -71,000
Part Time +384,000
Multiple Jobs +92,000
Yeah, so the job numbers are bullshite. I guess it’s good that people are now going to work at gas stations and restaurants, but it’s not all that impressive.
Full Time -71,000
Part Time +384,000
Multiple Jobs +92,000
Yeah, so the job numbers are bullshite. I guess it’s good that people are now going to work at gas stations and restaurants, but it’s not all that impressive.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 1:41 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
And why do they think 25% of people are unemployed?
Have you been to any metro area lately? Been to a grocery, fast food, or hospital? Staffing issues have been, and remain critically dangerous. Order times / inventories of finished goods remain low due to shortage of workers.
Nothing this administration does passes the eye test, and they’ve been caught lying too many times before.
Posted on 8/5/22 at 2:20 pm to StupidBinder
quote:
I don’t know, but I’m not sure that would be a useful stat anyway
You don't think knowing how many people that can work and need money that aren't working is a useful Stat?
quote:
There are plenty of able bodied adults who choose not to work
If they're able to support themselves, who cares? We aren't talking about them
Posted on 8/5/22 at 2:22 pm to bad93ex
quote:
The fastest decline in gas prices we've seen in a decade.
Wasn’t it also the fastest run up in gas prices?
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