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re: Interesting question: Is home ownership becoming the new "college degree"?
Posted on 8/18/25 at 3:56 pm to LSUminati
Posted on 8/18/25 at 3:56 pm to LSUminati
quote:
I think it’s important to separate owning a home from the two dimensional “investment” thesis behind home ownership. I’m not saying people need to be reckless with their wealth and set their nest egg on fire, but so long as you aren’t under water and appreciate with inflation you should feel ok.
Too many people, probably due to ego, want to feel like they made a good deal or made a good investment they can brag about in the future. The value of home ownership is more about having a sense of steadiness and community.
I don't think most people's personal residence is a investment at all. When you consider mortgage interest, maintenance and lost opportunity it is more of a necessary evil than an investment. Sure, it ought to appreciate over time BUT it is unlikely to outpace inflation combined with the interest paid and maintenance costs. Most people find that unless they are downsizing any gains they may have thought they had coming are wiped out on their next purchase.
It is a razor thin margin and almost no one can do it successfully but if one can develop a small lot and act as a project manager and build a spec home that they intend to live in for 3 years or more the tax advantages can be significant...do it every 2-3 years for 40 years and one could build some serious wealth that was never really if ever taxed. Most people would find themselves financially ruined trying to do it because that $25 hallway light fixture ain't as nice as that $500 one but it can be done.
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Posted on 8/18/25 at 4:29 pm to NC_Tigah
You purposely worded your post to sound intelligent then you give some anecdotes of extreme luck
A lot of folks are lucky as frick
A lot of folks are lucky as frick
This post was edited on 8/18/25 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 8/18/25 at 4:40 pm to dalefla
Property taxes and insurance skyrocketing is making renting worthwhile for some situations.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 4:46 pm to Sun God
quote:How's that, hotshot?
You purposely worded your post to sound intelligent
quote:"frick" isn't lucky.
A lot of folks are lucky as frick
Nor is losing generally unlucky.
You can take that last bit to the bank, as you lament your own situation.
This post was edited on 8/18/25 at 4:48 pm
Posted on 8/18/25 at 4:49 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Interesting question: Is home ownership becoming the new "college degree"?
no, but the problem in both of these situations is that the government has devalued the dollar and have created an inflated market for both.
in both cases you're paying more for a product with a dollar that's worth less.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 5:14 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
How's that, hotshot?
Don’t be obtuse
quote:
"frick" isn't lucky.
Semantics it is then!
quote:
Nor is losing generally unlucky.
Ah now we’re speaking in generalities!
quote:
You can take that last bit to the bank, as you lament your own situation.
I have been extremely lucky in life. Others have been even more lucky.
The examples you posted earlier prove it
Posted on 8/18/25 at 5:16 pm to SlowFlowPro
I think very few people actually make money in the long term on any home they purchase. when you consider interest, repairs, maintenance, taxes, inflation, improvements, etc... I think very few people would actually make a dime on a house when they sell it. maybe in some ridiculous markets but I would say in general no. thats just a guess though.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 5:34 pm to SlowFlowPro
There are many people who make horrible decisions to buy their "dream home", you could rent and invest the money youd put into a house and come out about as good. Home ownership has pros and cons. It is archaeic to think it is the only reasonable decision.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:06 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Zuckerberg just got lucky. Sam Altman just got lucky.
2 very good examples of being on the right side of variance, specifically in terms of time.
Zuck didn't invent social media or even a platform similar to what FB was. There were already dozens of popular sites with established bases before FB. FB just caught buzz at the time when larger society was willing to adopt social media. Same with AI and Altman/ChatGPT (not just acceptance but the hardware involved evolving).
quote:
A 30-something who recognized the unique RE opportunities 2012 brought
Many other 30-somethings recognized other valid, unique RE opportunities at other times and failed due nothing more than incorrect timing.
That's why the saying "luck is preparation and opportunity" includes both variables. "Opportunity" is largely random and being too early or too late, which are both outside of your control, can/will kill even the most brilliant of ideas.
Time has proven over and over again that individually we are terrible are predicting future events, especially in investing. That's why the best investors in the world (almost?) always fail in competitions against index funds.
The timing on housing, currently, is terrible People didn't just miss the good time because of bad decision-making, either. Many were either too young or simply had no ability to purchase a house when variance was on their side.
One thing is for certain. People who did find themselves on the right side of variance, which positively amplified their decision-making, do hate to admit this reality, especially when people who made similarly-valued decisions being unlucky on the wrong side of variance, failed, due primarily to timing alone.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:09 pm to AwgustaDawg
quote:
It can actually prevent one from becoming wealthy if it prevents one from advancing their career. A sure fire way to get a healthy raise is to be in a position to relocate....hard to do when you have a pile of bricks tying you down.
This simple paradigm should have reshaped how people see mortgages/home "ownership" a great deal.
I haven't looked this up, but I'll bet people in the 50s and 60s bought/sold fewer primary homes in their lives compared to today. That makes home ownership a lot more palatable, for multiple reasons.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:11 pm to evil cockroach
quote:
got it, the response is "trust me".
Got it, all the information right there at your fingertips and someone won’t do it for you. So, you quit.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:13 pm to DonJuanDaMiles
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:37 pm to SlowFlowPro
I’m not sure how this is even a debatable topic, or why in the world the nerdy looking guy on the podcast thought he had some edgy hot take.
Making yourself house poor to live in a certain area has always been a bad idea. It’s just a hell of a lot easier to do now.
All I see in that video is four guys trying to convince you that your inability to purchase a home like your parents and grandparents did is actually a good thing.
Making yourself house poor to live in a certain area has always been a bad idea. It’s just a hell of a lot easier to do now.
All I see in that video is four guys trying to convince you that your inability to purchase a home like your parents and grandparents did is actually a good thing.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 6:43 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
being on the right side of variance,
As a statistician, this phrase makes me want to barf reading it so many times.
Who came up with this phrase, I'd like to beat him up.
This post was edited on 8/18/25 at 6:48 pm
Posted on 8/18/25 at 7:01 pm to gaetti15
quote:
Who came up with this phrase, I'd like to beat him up.
My first contact was via poker players, and it has major significance when analyzing individual hands (with the statistical data to confirm which side of variance you're on at any given time).
Overall you should end up evened out, but the size of the "gamble" involved matters. So in the poker context, if you lose a hand you had a 75% chance to win, but only lost 10 BBs that's one thing, but if you win a hand where you had a 75% chance to lose, and won 100 BBs, the impact is felt much more.
Big-ticket items like a house, college, etc. are hard to make up for in life, if you find yourself on the wrong side of variance with them.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 3:48 pm to SlowFlowPro
I think the part that most resembles college debt is not just the debt itself, but the fact that you get into it without any exit plan. I ended up arguing with a co-owner about selling the house and needed lawyers specialized in partition, like Underwood Law Firm, so we could separate the property in a civilized way. Since then, I see a house more as a legal commitment than as a badge to put on a CV.
This post was edited on 11/20/25 at 5:28 am
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