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re: Inspired by the other thread, is the world better off with German victory in WW 1?

Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:24 pm to
Posted by Rayburn8
Member since Jun 2014
1717 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:24 pm to
quote:

would the balkins still be a powerkeg yes, but without the lend lease program does America ever recover from the great depression?


In a quick war, the great depression probably never happens. A recession maybe, but not nearly as bad. A big reason it did was how quickly America's economy grew during the war causing over speculation of further growth and bad investments. Stock market probably does not crash.

Oh and prohibition probably never happens, the saloon problem is still there but the push over the top issue was making a villian out of German beer in WW1.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:29 pm
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
23550 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:25 pm to
It would have been difficult for Germany to have achieved a "quick" victory, at least before the British could arrive, because there were no true mechanized armies. But we'll go ahead and say the war was over by Christmas 1914.

- German monarchy survives.
- Only minor territorial changes between France and Germany.
- France licks her wounds; no Hitler-type comes to power because there is no Treaty of Versailles or major post-war long-term economic collapse.
- The British haven't invested too much, so they are cool with peace.
- Nicholas II hangs on for a few more years, but eventually there is revolution - maybe in the 30's when the Great Depression reached it height. He and the family might make it out of the country alive.
- Austria-Hungary hangs on for a bit longer, but may dissolve during the Depression. Then again, they may make it, if they can resolve the ethic conflicts between its various inhabitants. Maybe with Franz-Josef kicking it in 1916 and Charles coming to the throne, it might breath new life into the monarchy, helping it survive.
- Much slower development of nuclear weapons, if at all.
- Africa might do better if the Europeans hang on to their colonies there longer.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:26 pm
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

I don't think WWI Germany would align itself with Japan, and I don't think Japan would want to be close to an imperialist Germany so no invasion of China.


Japan invaded Tsingtao at the start of the war, and Germany doesn't have the navy to back it up. I still think Japan was moving full steam ahead in attempting to conquer the Pacific and things would eventually come to blow with the Americans.

quote:

but without the lend lease program does America ever recover from the great depression?


Why would the Great Depression happen in a remotely close manner that it did in our timeline? Sure some depression would happen, but I see no reason for it to happen in 1929.
Posted by Lsuhack1
Member since Feb 2018
866 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:28 pm to
quote:

In a quick war, the great depression probably never happens. A big reason it did was how quickly America's economy grew during the war causing over speculation of further growth and bad investments. Stock market probably does not crash.
There is no quick war though, Britain is still going to fight till it collapses, which I do think happens.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:30 pm to
quote:

There is no quick war though, Britain is still going to fight till it collapses, which I do think happens.



Nah. The British would be fine with their colonies, with Germany not being able compete with in the same manner. I think Germany and Britain could coexist in that stratosphere.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
135033 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:31 pm to
Yes, a quick victory just sees some territory changing hands instead of the prolonged and horrible loss of life, the communists possibly don’t take over Russia and China, communism doesn’t spread, Nazis don’t rise in Germany, the Middle East isn’t partitioned in such a way that ensures endless violence...



A swift German victory would have been better for all
Posted by Lsuhack1
Member since Feb 2018
866 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

Japan invaded Tsingtao at the start of the war, and Germany doesn't have the navy to back it up. I still think Japan was moving full steam ahead in attempting to conquer the Pacific and things would eventually come to blow with the Americans.


What I am saying is that if Germany successfully puts an end to the war in Europe then it is going to squash Russia and Japan is going to put some distance between itself and Germany, and come after america I agree.
quote:

Why would the Great Depression happen in a remotely close manner that it did in our timeline? Sure some depression would happen, but I see no reason for it to happen in 1929.


If there is still a prolonged war that involves Germany vs. Britain. Then we could still be in the same financial situation.
Posted by Lsuhack1
Member since Feb 2018
866 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

Nah. The British would be fine with their colonies, with Germany not being able compete with in the same manner. I think Germany and Britain could coexist in that stratosphere.

but Germany is going to be knocking on the door of India, and Britain be very alone on an island.
This is an awesome discussion btw with no right answers.
This post was edited on 7/17/18 at 12:37 pm
Posted by Napoleon
Kenna
Member since Dec 2007
74884 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:35 pm to
Man. No Middle East disaster.
No Balkans.
NO Hitler.
Likely no Stalin.

It's possible
Posted by CoonassatTEXAS
Austin, TX
Member since Nov 2005
1308 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:37 pm to
Austria Hungary would still have been a shite show. So we would still most likely have balkin issues.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

What I am saying is that if Germany successfully puts an end to the war in Europe then it is going to squash Russia and Japan is going to put some distance between itself and Germany, and come after america I agree.



Germany wasn't out to squash Russia in that way. They got pretty desperate towards the middle of the war to send the virus of communism to them, but the Germans with a single front I think would plow over the Russians to where Nicolas would have done some sort of treaty before their total destruction. Japan still would have gone around raping and pillaging the Pacific.

quote:

If there is still a prolonged war that involves Germany vs. Britain. Then we could still be in the same financial situation.



I see no reason to believe this would happen, so I completely disagree with your premises. A land and sea power can live side by side, so long as they accept it as the status quo.
Posted by OMLandshark
Member since Apr 2009
120445 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

but Germany is going to be knocking on the door of India, and Britain be very alone on an island.



How and why? They didn't have I-10 to supply such a conquest, and their navy sure as frick weren't getting there.
Posted by Rayburn8
Member since Jun 2014
1717 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:44 pm to
quote:

This is an awesome discussion btw with no right answers


Agreed, just so many scenarios and it is something that is fun to talk about.
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
38476 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 12:57 pm to
The whole thing could have been averted if Germany would have told the Hapsburgs in Austria that they would not back an offensive war by them against the Serbs in the wake of the Sarajevo assassination.
Posted by KiwiHead
Auckland, NZ
Member since Jul 2014
38476 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:10 pm to
The biggest post war issue would have been the price France would have paid with her overseas possessions mainly Morrocco especially if the Germans could get the French to capitulate fast enough and maybe Indo-China.

Most of French Africa , the French would have been able to hold on to like Algeria which was a Dept of France and Tunisia
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
29126 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:20 pm to
So we are better off if we allow aggressor nations to just take over, establish their empires, and we just subjugate ourselves and be passive. Then maybe the aggressors won't be so aggressive.

That is battered spouse logic.
Posted by CarrolltonTiger
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2005
50291 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:21 pm to
Additionally, a German victory, and Japan doesn't pick up German assets in the Pacific and no reward from the League of Nations in China. Japan less likely to become as militant as it did.

Victory in the West, and Germany takes and keeps the territory it got at Brest-Litvosk, even if Soviet revolution they lost a shite load of the best part of their Empire. Communism might not have survived after that treaty.

Ottomans strengthened and get Back much of what they lost in the Balkans and in north Africa in the previous decade.
Posted by ILeaveAtHalftime
Member since Sep 2013
2889 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

is the world better off with German victory in WW 1?


In all likelihood, absolutely.
Posted by ILeaveAtHalftime
Member since Sep 2013
2889 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

So we are better off if we allow aggressor nations to just take over, establish their empires, and we just subjugate ourselves and be passive. Then maybe the aggressors won't be so aggressive.


You seem to be incredibly misinformed on WW1.
Posted by ILeaveAtHalftime
Member since Sep 2013
2889 posts
Posted on 7/17/18 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

would have been difficult for Germany to have achieved a "quick" victory, at least before the British could arrive,


Not really. The Germans could have taken Paris pretty early on after the Battle of the Frontiers.
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