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Started By
Message
re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:35 pm to NolaTiger52
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:35 pm to NolaTiger52
quote:
Is it safe to say that none of these models mean shite until a center forms?
In terms of exact landfall locations? Absolutely.
They are helpful in sketching the big picture out. Though at this point, its drawn out clearly enough there's not much to learn from an individual run.
1
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:36 pm to Duke
quote:
I'm generally buying what the Euros are selling this afternoon. Makes the most sense.
quote:
Duke
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:39 pm to Klingler7
quote:
Thanks dude ! I’m going to keep my medications filled and my car full of fuel just in case Louisiana gets put in the crosshairs.
Everyone should have a plan depending on your situation.
It’s your personal responsibility.
The NWS and media will relay you the necessary information, but it’s in you to analyze what they tell you and react accordingly.
Stay safe.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:41 pm to LSUZombie
quote:
JBE is on it
frick him.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:43 pm to Domeskeller
aircraft recon on its way to 98L
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:50 pm to gaetti15
So that "cool" front coming in next week (early Monday) to the Gulf Coast should cock block 98L, right?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:52 pm to GumboPot
quote:
So that "cool" front coming in next week (early Monday) to the Gulf Coast should cock block 98L, right?
That's what they say
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:54 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
You use models as a guide at this point, and look for trends. They aren't useless, but neither are they Gospe
Bad thing is GFS keeps moving west Euro keeps going east so there isn’t much of a trend
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:57 pm to Duke
Pretty interesting set up currently with a big trough that formed on the back side of Fiona shearing 98L to shreds right now. Conditions improve once Fiona races off to the north and shear weakens.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 4:58 pm to jclem11
quote:
jclem11
He said that as a joke. His favorite model has always been the CMC.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:00 pm to Klingler7
So everyone is in love with Europe right now right? break out the crepes lol
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:07 pm to rds dc
18z GFS is going to run the H5 vort right into CA
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:13 pm to rds dc
So let me get this straight
Gfs- Mexico
Euro- Florida
Guess who’s in the middle?
Gfs- Mexico
Euro- Florida
Guess who’s in the middle?
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:18 pm to LC Baw
18z GFS going further west than 12z wtf
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:19 pm to deltaland
quote:
18z GFS going further west than 12z wtf
Stop looking at deterministic runs 200+ hours out.
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:21 pm to The Boat
quote:
quote:
18z GFS going further west than 12z wtf
Stop looking at deterministic runs 200+ hours out.
It's already farther west by like 84hrs
98L is weaker and looks to be guided by the mid-level ridge over the Gulf on this run. All kind of odd looking, esp. when the H5 vort gets tangled up with CA or even some EPAC vort.
This post was edited on 9/21/22 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:22 pm to The Boat
quote:
Stop looking at deterministic runs 200+ hours out
We need plenty of time to either panic or be relieved
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:22 pm to The Boat
Wtf else are we supposed to look at
And I said that at hour 132
And I said that at hour 132
Posted on 9/21/22 at 5:22 pm to The Boat
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/11/23 at 4:59 am
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