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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)

Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:47 am to
Posted by Byrdybyrd05
Member since Nov 2014
25701 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:47 am to
Posted by Oswald
South of the St. George Buffer Zone
Member since Aug 2011
3448 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Potential Gulf Threat

Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
134845 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:49 am to
Posted by meeple
Carcassonne
Member since May 2011
9341 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:49 am to
quote:

With the hurricane’s eye wall getting closer, Jeff, along with some of his TwisterChasers.com crew found cover at Island Car Wash (2019 Highway 35 N, Rockport, Texas), a self-serve car wash (or “worsh” after the word escapes from Jeff’s Oklahoma-accented maw, all praise be onto Jeff) complete with a small, ancillary, tropical-blue out-building.

I thought it was referring to the blue shed on Grand Isle?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:50 am to
Time for Florida to take one for the team. Sorry Florida, I'm still recovering from Ida.

Hopefully it doesn't do much of anything but who knows. Florida been super lucky past few years with storms which is unusual considering the land mass.
This post was edited on 9/20/22 at 9:52 am
Posted by Drank
Premium
Member since Dec 2012
10531 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:53 am to
bess fran jus sent dis on tikk talk.
is real?!

Posted by Hangover Haven
Metry
Member since Oct 2013
26446 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:54 am to
quote:

timing and how fast the system develops is everything with that one


Thanks Nash...
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
18259 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:54 am to
Gave you an upvote to ward off the downvoting gators you've attracted. You panhandle baws have to handle this one
Posted by Costanza
Member since May 2011
3148 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 9:57 am to
Should I cancel my travel plans to the Bay of Camp Peachy?
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
13358 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:00 am to
quote:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly
formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located
several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better
organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as
the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the
Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system
as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands
beginning on Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35606 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:00 am to
First real hurricane thread of the year.

May it somehow, and im not sure how yet, only find open water.
Posted by flvelo12
Palm Harbor, Florida
Member since Jan 2012
3315 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:01 am to
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:07 am to
You don't wish misery on anyone but someone getting it in the pooper hole with this system.
Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
30044 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:08 am to
Anybody ever make milk sandwiches with Dave’s bread?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42168 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:08 am to
Checking in

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19805 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:09 am to
quote:

May it somehow, and im not sure how yet, only find open water.



There are a couple of potential scenarios that don't involve the Gulf. Quick development and gets pulled out north through the Islands. This solution is supported by a fair amount of the 06z GEFS members. The other option would be it stays weak, races across the Caribbean, and runs aground in CA. This solution is supported by a cluster of the 06z Euro EPS members. So it's not a slam dunk Gulf storm.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
13358 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:09 am to
quote:

So it's not a slam dunk Gulf storm.



I need this in the form of a probability statement
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:10 am to
Looks like it's already starting to get better organized though eh?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
42168 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:10 am to
quote:

help me out with this

You had to be there. And by there I don't mean in the blue shed, but rather in the Hurricane Harvey thread.
Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
30044 posts
Posted on 9/20/22 at 10:11 am to
quote:

You had to be there. And by there I don't mean in the blue shed, but rather in the Hurricane Harvey thread.


Jeff and the Car Warsh
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